powderfreak Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 But I was told that all of these troughs the ec ens have had advertised never verify. But it's just a warm trough causing the mild down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Shorter term, may I recommend the new CFS thread in the NYC subforum. And maybe my comments yesterday in the NYC banter thread. I know tropical chances in any given year for NYC/LI/SNE are rather low, but not even August, the 26º SST isotherm almost to ACY, water temps mid 70sF South of Long Island, and now maybe the trough a bit further West, well, I am hoping to be lurking a lot in the NYC and SNE subforums. The skin temps have little to do with sustaining tropical systems this far north. It may help a bit, but it's more a function of how far north the cyclone continues to intensify, and how the shear is. Plus, this weather will slow the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 The skin temps have little to do with sustaining tropical systems this far north. It may help a bit, but it's more a function of how far north the cyclone continues to intensify, and how the shear is. Plus, this weather will slow the warming. Oh, it'll be weakening coming in for hours North of the Gulf Stream, I am well aware of that. The 75ºF skin temp is less about sustaining a cyclone than it is about the surface airmass being warm and unstable enough to allow mixing to the surface of stronger gusts from aloft. 100 knot winds at 850 mb won't do much if not mixed down as gusts. I don't think an air mass over mid 60s water would be as good for wind gusts as an air mass over mid 70s water. Having been in just a Cat 2 hurricane, with wind maps suggesting only Cat 1 winds at the house, judging from sound and damage, the wind gusts play a major role. Do Cat 1 sustained winds turn over gas station pump shelters? Completely collapse the AutoZone at I-45 and Little York? I doubt it. I don't know if it has been studied, but I think the beginning of post-tropical transition may actual allow the storm to sustain winds further North then would be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 The underwater is still cool so that air will not be over 75f water. It perhaps helps a little, but I never get excited over above normal ssts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 The underwater is still cool so that air will not be over 75f water. It perhaps helps a little, but I never get excited over above normal ssts. Well, it is more than skin deep all the way to almost Jersey. Anywa, the NYC CFS thread shows what looks like what I, as a complete amateur, would draw up for a pattern favoring NYC/SNE subforums. ETA because it is a banter thread- my Mom wasn't even 5 then and remembers the 1938 hurricane in Quincy. I was born in Flushing, my parents moved from Jackson Heights to Massapequa. I have NYC subforum ties. My Mom is from North Quincy, first baseball games w/o adult supervision were Red Sox games, SNE subforum ties, and I live in Houston. I wa sliving in Massapequa, but between Belle and missing 5 straight days of school for the Blizzard of '78, well, my Dad, a flight dispatcher at American Airlines, talked me out of met as a college major because AA had in house mets at the time and he said their pay was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Water in OC is 80 way down deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Water in OC is 80 way down deep Parents are in wildwood...been going for years...says the warmest they have ever felt water temps down there...pure bath water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Maybe I'm off, but when I think of strong NE hurricanes, I want fast forward speed. Unlike most storms, this hurricane did not weaken on its way toward Southern New England, due to its rapid forward speed and its track. For the tropics where the storm is likely moving at < 10mph, high sst's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Odd that TAN only reported 1/3 of an inch of rain. My daughter left an empty thermos cup outside that had close to 3/4 of an inch in it this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Parents are in wildwood...been going for years...says the warmest they have ever felt water temps down there...pure bath water Yeah lots of talk down here of a strong cat 3 or 4 rolling up the coast not weakening. Water is insane warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Odd that TAN only reported 1/3 of an inch of rain. My daughter left an empty thermos cup outside that had close to 3/4 of an inch in it this AM. I see 0.50" for TAN going back to 12z yest. That should be somewhat close to the equivalent of 3/4" in a sloped cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Water in OC is 80 way down deep Lol I mentioned how PEI water was warmer than I ever remember and I've been going there for 10+ years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Yeah lots of talk down here of a strong cat 3 or 4 rolling up the coast not weakening. Water is insane warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 I see 0.50" for TAN going back to 12z yest. That should be somewhat close to the equivalent of 3/4" in a sloped cup. CEF reported only .69 for precip yesterday which is an absolute joke. 2.17 here IMBY less than a half mile from the base and 2.20 in Holyoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Thunderstorm just ripped thru here again. They pulled everyone off the beach. It was sheer pandemonium . People screaming , umbrellas flying. Insanity. Car flooded again. Higher today than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Some glimpses of sun this afternoon temp of 78 humidity is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Thunderstorm just ripped thru here again. They pulled everyone off the beach. It was sheer pandemonium . People screaming , umbrellas flying. Insanity. Car flooded again. Higher today than yesterday Geezus vacation hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Some glimpses of sun this afternoon temp of 78 humidity is amazing Yeah...70s with a 65 dew is really comfortable. 72/62 here with peaks of sun. Nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 it hasn't been able to reach 70 here...got up to 69.3 a little less than an hr ago...now it's 68.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Yeah...70s with a 65 dew is really comfortable. 72/62 here with peaks of sun. Nice day. Absolutely! Just nice to see the sun and blue sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 78/67 variable skies with a perfect east wind, heaven out here right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Thunderstorm just ripped thru here again. They pulled everyone off the beach. It was sheer pandemonium . People screaming , umbrellas flying. Insanity. Car flooded again. Higher today than yesterday. Pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Absolutely! Just nice to see the sun and blue sky!. No blue here, but comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Looks like an early spring day here except the temps. Cloudy sheet drizzle with the occasional shower. Topped out at 72f, has backed off to 68f now. Temps have not budged much. Low of 67f. Solidly below norm day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 75 partly cloudy, glad the wet weather stayed north and east should be a perfect evening as blue skies are taking over. Father in Law caught an 80lb tuna off nantucket, dropping off a boatload tomorrow on his way home..............SUSHI all week FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 68.6F for the totchalicious high today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I was south of you in Nassau County, L.I. yesterday and I didn't feel like the humidity was anything too excessive. Then when I got into the Orange County, NY area for the afternoon we had a lot of sun and it was pretty moderate with a breeze. 55 here at home now ...so no swamp azz for me. Some glimpses of sun this afternoon temp of 78 humidity is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Canadian isn't most reliable tropical model, so I don't really expect it, but 99L (future Ernesto) still moving West of due North in 10 days, have to hold out some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 How many times is the Canadian going to threaten a storm off the East Coast? It's like the long range GFS blizzards in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Looks like its going to be another banner month for the L to the L for July as I had +3.9 dca +2.9 nyc +2.0 bos respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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