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Chicago 2012 Record Watch


Chicago Storm

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Somebody always gets screwed. :lol:

 

Anyway, I'm calling the first 1.0"+ event for Chicago this winter on either January 15 or 16. The cries from Alek and Joe will be memorable.

 

6z DGEX agrees with you (might hold off till the 17th)...lets see if it can gain support.  Top 4 last 1" are the 14, 15, 16 and 17th so it's a pretty tight threshold.

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Updated...

 

Records for consecutive days since 1.0"+ calender day snowfall and 1.0"+ snow depth have been broken, and will be added to.

 

Days Since Last 1.0"+ Calender Day Snowfall:
1. 320 - 1/9/2013

2. 319 - 1/6/1940

3. 315 - 12/07/1958

4. 307 - 12/03/1921
5. 305 - 1/15/2002
6. 303 - 1/07/1944
7. 302 - 12/09/1988
7. 302 - 11/16/1927
9. 299 - 12/29/1990
10. 298 - 12/23/1918

Days Since Last 1.0"+ Snow Depth:
1. 319 - 1/9/2013

2. 313 - 1/06/1940
3. 302 - 1/07/1944
4. 296 - 12/12/1988
4. 296 - 12/14/1946

 

Latest 1.0"+ Snowfall:

1. 1/17/1899

2. 1/16/2002

3. 1/15/1890

4. 1/14/1937

5. 1/11/1983

6. 1/9/2013

7. 1/8/1944

8. 1/7/1940

9. 1/6/1913

10. 1/5/1994

 

Latest 1.0"+ Snow Depth:
1. 1/16/2002
2. 1/9/2013

3. 1/8/1944
3. 1/8/1940
5. 1/7/1913
6. 1/2/1987
7. 12/31/1923
8. 12/30/1998
9. 12/26/1933
10. 12/25/1993
10. 12/25/1984

 

Latest 2.0"+ Total Seasonal Snowfall:
1. 1/16/2002
2. 1/15/1890
3. 1/14/1937
4. 1/12/2012
5. 1/9/2013

6. 1/8/1944
7. 1/7/1940
7. 1/7/1913
9. 1/5/1994
10. 1/4/2004

 

Latest 3.0"+ Total Seasonal Snowfall:
1. 1/21/1937
2. 1/18/1913
3. 1/16/2002
4. 1/15/1890
5. 1/12/2012
6. 1/11/1983
6. 1/11/1924
8. 1/9/2013

9. 1/8/1944

10. 1/7/1940

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So, in terms of potential failure modes, a miss to the south is becoming less likely. The only thing left that could throw a wrench in would be warmer air aloft hanging on longer.

 

It will be close...wouldn't be shocked to see warm air hang on longer and any mixing will kill ratios.  1"+ is looking more likely but far from a lock.

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It will be close...wouldn't be shocked to see warm air hang on longer and any mixing will kill ratios. 1"+ is looking more likely but far from a lock.

The next week plus looks pretty quiet so if the damage is kept to a minimum with this one, then it will be time to shift focus on the big daddy (9.8)

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Here's an interesting question. Say that ORD gets less than 1" of snow/sleet tonight but the wave tomorrow afternoon creeps farther northwest and lays down a minor accumulation and the total between both goes over 1". Would tomorrow count as a separate event since there will be a break in the precip?

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Here's an interesting question. Say that ORD gets less than 1" of snow/sleet tonight but the wave tomorrow afternoon creeps farther northwest and lays down a minor accumulation and the total between both goes over 1". Would tomorrow count as a separate event since there will be a break in the precip?

It would count, as the records in play are for calender day.

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12z GFS says February here we come.  Sub 4" winter on the table?

 

This stuff feeds off itself, so a part of me wants to say <10" is possible for ORD. That being said, it'd only take a week of half decent winter wx to make up that discrepancy. So I'd say the chance of seasonal snowfall futility is still less than 50/50.

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Concerning severe weather, I've always said that if we can't stop it and it's going to happen anyway, I want to see it. I guess the same can be said about snowfall futility. It you are going to receive record low snowfall you want to say that you lived to see it. :axe: :axe:

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Concerning severe weather, I've always said that if we can't stop it and it's going to happen anyway, I want to see it. I guess the same can be said about snowfall futility. It you are going to receive record low snowfall you want to say that you lived to see it. :axe: :axe:

It's like being at a baseball game when the opposing pitcher is throwing a no-hitter. You want your team to win but at some point you switch and root for the no-no so you can watch history.

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It's like being at a baseball game when the opposing pitcher is throwing a no-hitter. You want your team to win but at some point you switch and root for the no-no so you can watch history.

 

Verlander vs. the Jays in May 2011. I was there. Definitely is the case wrt a no hitter. 

 

But I've also lived through 2 futility seasons in the last 3 winters. There wasn't much transferability in the experience. I was rooting for snow right until the dying days of Spring.

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Verlander vs. the Jays in May 2011. I was there. Definitely is the case wrt a no hitter.

But I've also lived through 2 futility seasons in the last 3 winters. There wasn't much transferability in the experience. I was rooting for snow right until the dying days of Spring.

I can respect that. You're probably as invested in winter as anyone and it must be getting old coming off of a record futile winter.

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