A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 12z GFS says the 14-17th period is not going to deliver..in fact it doesn't even come close. Timing is way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Somebody always gets screwed. Anyway, I'm calling the first 1.0"+ event for Chicago this winter on either January 15 or 16. The cries from Alek and Joe will be memorable. 6z DGEX agrees with you (might hold off till the 17th)...lets see if it can gain support. Top 4 last 1" are the 14, 15, 16 and 17th so it's a pretty tight threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Updated... Records for consecutive days since 1.0"+ calender day snowfall and 1.0"+ snow depth have been broken, and will be added to. Days Since Last 1.0"+ Calender Day Snowfall:1. 320 - 1/9/2013 2. 319 - 1/6/1940 3. 315 - 12/07/1958 4. 307 - 12/03/19215. 305 - 1/15/20026. 303 - 1/07/19447. 302 - 12/09/19887. 302 - 11/16/19279. 299 - 12/29/199010. 298 - 12/23/1918Days Since Last 1.0"+ Snow Depth:1. 319 - 1/9/2013 2. 313 - 1/06/19403. 302 - 1/07/19444. 296 - 12/12/19884. 296 - 12/14/1946 Latest 1.0"+ Snowfall: 1. 1/17/1899 2. 1/16/2002 3. 1/15/1890 4. 1/14/1937 5. 1/11/1983 6. 1/9/2013 7. 1/8/1944 8. 1/7/1940 9. 1/6/1913 10. 1/5/1994 Latest 1.0"+ Snow Depth:1. 1/16/20022. 1/9/2013 3. 1/8/19443. 1/8/19405. 1/7/19136. 1/2/19877. 12/31/19238. 12/30/19989. 12/26/193310. 12/25/199310. 12/25/1984 Latest 2.0"+ Total Seasonal Snowfall:1. 1/16/20022. 1/15/18903. 1/14/19374. 1/12/20125. 1/9/2013 6. 1/8/19447. 1/7/19407. 1/7/19139. 1/5/199410. 1/4/2004 Latest 3.0"+ Total Seasonal Snowfall:1. 1/21/19372. 1/18/19133. 1/16/20024. 1/15/18905. 1/12/20126. 1/11/19836. 1/11/19248. 1/9/2013 9. 1/8/1944 10. 1/7/1940 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 mainstream coverage Records are falling as Chicago’s mild winter presses on. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-one-for-the-books-320-days-without-an-inch-of-snow-20130109,0,6309949.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Time to start getting nervous about Jan 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 does sleet count? seriously though, not that considered yet...cold sector action is often overdone in these set ups. Could change but I don't think it will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 does sleet count? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 concern level raised from 0 to 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The record is a lock... A combo of a crappy start to winter and BAD luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The record is a lock... A combo of a crappy start to winter and BAD luck. the clipper popping up right around the 16/17 is a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Time to start getting nervous about Jan 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 So, in terms of potential failure modes, a miss to the south is becoming less likely. The only thing left that could throw a wrench in would be warmer air aloft hanging on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 So, in terms of potential failure modes, a miss to the south is becoming less likely. The only thing left that could throw a wrench in would be warmer air aloft hanging on longer. It will be close...wouldn't be shocked to see warm air hang on longer and any mixing will kill ratios. 1"+ is looking more likely but far from a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It will be close...wouldn't be shocked to see warm air hang on longer and any mixing will kill ratios. 1"+ is looking more likely but far from a lock. The next week plus looks pretty quiet so if the damage is kept to a minimum with this one, then it will be time to shift focus on the big daddy (9.8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The next week plus looks pretty quiet so if the damage is kept to a minimum with this one, then it will be time to shift focus on the big daddy (9.8) I still think a clipper could be a last minute spoiler but tonights event looks to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Here's an interesting question. Say that ORD gets less than 1" of snow/sleet tonight but the wave tomorrow afternoon creeps farther northwest and lays down a minor accumulation and the total between both goes over 1". Would tomorrow count as a separate event since there will be a break in the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Here's an interesting question. Say that ORD gets less than 1" of snow/sleet tonight but the wave tomorrow afternoon creeps farther northwest and lays down a minor accumulation and the total between both goes over 1". Would tomorrow count as a separate event since there will be a break in the precip? It would count, as the records in play are for calender day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It would count, as the records in play are for calender day. Makes sense. This might be the last hurdle for the 1" record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Makes sense. This might be the last hurdle for the 1" record. Probably...Especially since there's agreement in keeping any clipper threat north of here through that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 lol, we didn't even get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Still freezing rain at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z GFS says February here we come. Sub 4" winter on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z GFS says February here we come. Sub 4" winter on the table? This stuff feeds off itself, so a part of me wants to say <10" is possible for ORD. That being said, it'd only take a week of half decent winter wx to make up that discrepancy. So I'd say the chance of seasonal snowfall futility is still less than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GO Chicago... Killing it on the futility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Concerning severe weather, I've always said that if we can't stop it and it's going to happen anyway, I want to see it. I guess the same can be said about snowfall futility. It you are going to receive record low snowfall you want to say that you lived to see it. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 1" record could start to get into stupid late territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Concerning severe weather, I've always said that if we can't stop it and it's going to happen anyway, I want to see it. I guess the same can be said about snowfall futility. It you are going to receive record low snowfall you want to say that you lived to see it. :axe: It's like being at a baseball game when the opposing pitcher is throwing a no-hitter. You want your team to win but at some point you switch and root for the no-no so you can watch history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 hoosier and IWXwx get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It's like being at a baseball game when the opposing pitcher is throwing a no-hitter. You want your team to win but at some point you switch and root for the no-no so you can watch history. Verlander vs. the Jays in May 2011. I was there. Definitely is the case wrt a no hitter. But I've also lived through 2 futility seasons in the last 3 winters. There wasn't much transferability in the experience. I was rooting for snow right until the dying days of Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Verlander vs. the Jays in May 2011. I was there. Definitely is the case wrt a no hitter. But I've also lived through 2 futility seasons in the last 3 winters. There wasn't much transferability in the experience. I was rooting for snow right until the dying days of Spring. I can respect that. You're probably as invested in winter as anyone and it must be getting old coming off of a record futile winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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