Chicago 2012 Record Watch

[Chicago Storm]

Chicago will finish with 46 90+ days, tied for 2nd most on record.

90+ Days In A Year:

1. 47 - 1988

2. 46 - 2012

2. 46 - 1955

4. 42 - 1983

4. 42 - 1953

6. 39 - 1959

7. 38 - 1952

8. 36 - 1954

9. 35 - 1971

9. 35 - 1964

11. 34 - 1944

12. 33 - 1987

12. 33 - 1977

14. 32 - 1934

15. 30 - 1995

15. 30 - 1991

15. 30 - 1949

Looking a bit deeper into things... 2012 will go down as tied for the 3rd most 90+ days overall for any site in Chicago. Data from MDW is missing from 1928-1934...Based on temps from ARR during that period, 1931, '33 and '34 likely each had 35-40 90+ days at MDW.

90+ Days In A Year At Any Chicago Site:

1. 48 - 1988 (MDW) (OFC 47 @ ORD)

2. 47 - 1983 (MDW) (OFC 42 @ ORD)

3. 46 - 2012 (ORD) (NON-OFC 46 @ MDW)

3. 46 - 1955 (MDW)

5. 43 - 1936 (MDW) (OFC 20 @ UC)

6. 42 - 1953 (MDW)

7. 41 - 1937 (MDW) (OFC 13 @ UC)

8. 39 - 1995 (MDW) (OFC 30 @ ORD)

8. 39 - 1959 (MDW)

10. 38 - 1952 (MDW)

11. 37 - 1991 (MDW) (OFC 30 @ ORD)

12. 36 - 1954 (MDW)

13. 35 - 2005 (MDW) (OFC 26 @ ORD)

13. 35 - 1971 (MDW)

13. 35 - 1964 (MDW)

[Chicago Storm]

A few additions...

Earliest Last 80+ Day In A Year:

1. 8/31/1876

2. 9/7/1890

3. 9/9/1875

4. 9/10/1996

4. 9/10/1896

6. 9/11/1888

7. 9/12/2012

7. 9/12/1874

9. 9/14/1917

9. 9/14/1894

9. 9/14/1889

Thanksgiving 2012 was tied for the 3rd warmest on record.

1. 69 - 11/24/1966

2. 64 - 11/26/1914

3. 63 - 11/22/2012

3. 63 - 11/25/1915

3. 63 - 11/26/1896

November 2012 was tied with 22 other years with only a trace of snowfall.

[A-L-E-K]

Never, since sunshine measurements began in 1893, have 14 consecutive months produced above normal sunshine. Never---that is---until this year. November 2012 will go down in the books as the latest sunnier than normal month.

High temperatures at or above 60-degrees are predicted Saturday, Sunday and Monday---December 1,2 and 3---in Chicago. The last time a December opened with three consecutive 60-degree readings was 30 years ago in 1982.

Such a string of warm December days has occurred only twice over the city's 142 year observational record.

http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/

[Jonger]

http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/

Seems there is a special record everything if you look hard enough. Sucks that one is on the way though.

Jon

[A-L-E-K]

Seems there is a special record everything if you look hard enough. Sucks that one is on the way though.

Jon

14 months in a row of above normal sun is pretty incredible.

[Jonger]

14 months in a row of above normal sun is pretty incredible.

Probably not enough soil moisture upstream to fuel cloud cover.

[A-L-E-K]

Probably not enough soil moisture upstream to fuel cloud cover.

hmmm, not sure how much the persistent drought in the plains plays into things but it's a theory.

[beavis1729]

ORD up to 70...the 3rd highest temp on record for Dec.

71 (12/2/1982)

71 (12/3/1970)

70 (12/3/2012)

69 (12/28/1984)*

* 3 weeks later, on 1/20/1985, it hit -27...all-time record low

RFD up to 68...new all-time monthly high for December. Old monthly record was 67 on 12/5/2001.

[Chicago Storm]

The high temp of 70 at ORD on the 3rd was not only the 2nd warmest December high temp on record, but it was also only the 6th 70+ temp in met Winter on record.

December All-Time Record Highs:

1. 71 - 12/2/1982

1. 71 - 12/3/1970

3. 70 - 12/3/2012

Met Winter 70+ Days:

1. 75 - 2/27/1976

2. 72 - 2/25/2000

3. 71 - 12/2/1982

3. 71 - 12/3/1970

5. 70 - 12/3/2012

5. 70 - 2/11/1999

[Chicago Storm]

Another potential record to watch...

From LOT...

"Through Dec 6th, it has been the warmest year on record in Chicago! Chicago's average temp for the year has been 56.4F, which is 0.1F ahead of 1921. However, in order to break the record for the warmest year ever, Chicago is going to have to average 3.5F ABOVE average for the last 25 days of the year, which may be difficult given a colder pattern forecast to set in next week."

[hm8]

Could probably include the snow futility records in here too...not exactly sure of the dates or I'd post them myself.

[michsnowfreak]

14 months in a row of above normal sun is pretty incredible.

Thats cool that the guy keeps records for sunshine in Chicago. I think its stupid that most sites no longer do % of possible sunshine.

[Jonger]

*Off Topic*

I think Michigan is looking at its 3rd warmest year on record, could possibly fall as far as 5th.

[Chicago Storm]

Could probably include the snow futility records in here too...not exactly sure of the dates or I'd post them myself.

Longest Periods Without Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 280 Days - 3/1-12/05/1994

2. 279 Days - 3/5-12/8/2012

3. 277 Days - 3/10-12/11/1946

4. 269 Days - 3/11-12/4/1999

Latest First Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 12/16/1965

2. 12/14/2001

3. 12/12/1946

4. 12/10/2003

5. 12/9/2011

5. 12/9/1948

7. 12/8/2012

8. 12/7/1914

9. 12/6/1994

10. 12/5/1999

10. 12/5/1984

10. 12/5/1973

10. 12/5/1909

[dmc76]

Longest Periods Without Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 280 Days - 3/1-12/05/1994

1. 280 Days - 3/5-12/9/2012

3. 277 Days - 3/10-12/11/1946

4. 269 Days - 3/11-12/4/1999

Latest First Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 12/16/1965

2. 12/14/2001

3. 12/12/1946

4. 12/10/2003

5. 12/9/2011

5. 12/9/1948

5. 12/9/2012

8. 12/7/1914

9. 12/6/1994

10. 12/5/1999

10. 12/5/1984

10. 12/5/1973

10. 12/5/1909

TIED!

fixed

[A-L-E-K]

record is a lock....we could add weeks

[Hoosier]

record is a lock....we could add weeks

or even years

[dmc76]

or even years

lol

[A-L-E-K]

or even years

unrealistic...but maybe a month

[Chicago WX]

or even years

decades

[Hoosier]

decades

Alek may never see snow again.

[SpartyOn]

Front page of the Huffington Post highlighting this potential "snowless" record. Story has got legs.

[Jonger]

Amazing that we are upstream and have recorded several 0.10+ snows this winter and fall.

Jon

[A-L-E-K]

outside shot lake showers screw up our record...but they should stay east of ORD

[Chicago Storm]

Now that the chance of snow today has passed it's safe to say the record for the longest period without measurable snowfall has been broken. We're also now tied for the 4th latest measurable snowfall on record. With no threat of snow until next weekend, the new record will grow and the other is in jeopardy.

Longest Periods Without Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 281 Days - 3/5-12/10/2012

2. 280 Days - 3/1-12/05/1994

3. 277 Days - 3/10-12/11/1946

4. 269 Days - 3/11-12/4/1999

Latest First Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 12/16/1965

2. 12/14/2001

3. 12/12/1946

4. 12/10/2012

4. 12/10/2003

6. 12/9/2011

6. 12/9/1948

8. 12/7/1914

9. 12/6/1994

10. 12/5/1999

10. 12/5/1984

10. 12/5/1973

10. 12/5/1909

[Hoosier]

Now that the chance of snow today has passed it's safe to say the record for the longest period without measurable snowfall has been broken. We're also now tied for the 4th latest measurable snowfall on record. With no threat of snow until next weekend, the new record will grow and the other is in jeopardy.

Longest Periods Without Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 281 Days - 3/5-12/10/2012

2. 280 Days - 3/1-12/05/1994

3. 277 Days - 3/10-12/11/1946

4. 269 Days - 3/11-12/4/1999

Latest First Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 12/16/1965

2. 12/14/2001

3. 12/12/1946

4. 12/10/2012

4. 12/10/2003

6. 12/9/2011

6. 12/9/1948

8. 12/7/1914

9. 12/6/1994

10. 12/5/1999

10. 12/5/1984

10. 12/5/1973

10. 12/5/1909

Funny that 1946 is on there since I've read some posts about this December pattern resembling that year.

[Hoosier]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

832 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 /932 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012/

...UNUSUALLY LATE INTO THE SEASON WITHOUT A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW

FREEZING...

EVERYDAY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD HAVE HAD HIGH

TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES EVERYDAY. ON AVERAGE...CHICAGO

SEES THEIR FIRST DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES NEVER REACH THE FREEZING

MARK AROUND NOVEMBER 22ND...WHILE THE ROCKFORD AVERAGE FIRST DATE

WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FAILS TO REACH FREEZING IS NOVEMBER 11TH.

SOME OF THE REASONS FOR THE 11 DAY DISPARITY BETWEEN CHICAGO AND

ROCKFORD INCLUDE THE WARMING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND CHICAGO`S

URBAN HEAT ISLAND. THIS WAS PARTICULARLY THE CASE PRIOR TO THE

OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITE BEING RELOCATED FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO

MIDWAY AIRPORT BACK IN 1942.

HERE ARE THE RANKINGS FOR LATEST FIRST COMPLETELY SUB-FREEZING DAYS

FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...AS WELL AS HOW THAT METEOROLOGICAL

WINTER (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY) STACKED UP VERSUS THE CURRENT 30

YEAR NORMALS IN BOTH SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES...

CHICAGO WINTER AVG TEMP DEC-FEB SNOWFALL

1) 01/01/1923 27.8 (+1.4) 14.8 (-13.6)

2) 12/28/1971 28.0 (+1.6) 26.7 ( -1.7)

3) 12/25/1918 33.1 (+6.7) 17.2 (-11.2)

4) 12/24/2001 32.5 (+6.1) 18.9 ( -9.5)

5) 12/22/1998 30.3 (+3.9) 32.5 ( +4.1)

6) 12/21/1939 29.5 (+3.1) 22.0 ( -6.4)

7) 12/18/1921 28.8 (+2.4) 6.9 (-21.5)

8) 12/17/1987 24.7 (-1.7) 39.6 (+11.2)

12/17/1999 29.4 (+3.0) 27.0 ( -1.4)

10) 12/16/1878 23.9 (-2.5) MISSING

11) 12/13/1915 27.7 (+1.3) 19.9 ( -8.4)

12/13/1961 23.2 (-3.2) 50.0 (+21.6)

12/13/2004 28.5 (+2.1) 22.6 ( -5.8)

14) 12/12/1922 27.8 (+1.4) 14.8 (-13.6)

15) 12/11/1912 29.3 (+2.9) 11.6 (-15.6)

12/11/1994 28.4 (+2.0) 20.5 ( -7.9)

16) 12/10/2011 32.6 (+4.2) 19.5 ( -8.9)

12/10/1954 32.1 (+3.7) 21.2 ( -7.2)

ROCKFORD WINTER AVG TEMP DEC-FEB SNOWFALL

1) 12/23/2001 30.9 (+7.2) 13.2 (-16.0)

2) 12/20/1998 27.4 (+3.7) 12.6 (-16.6)

3) 12/16/1999 26.1 (+3.2) 28.3 ( -0.9)

4) 12/13/1915 23.6 (-0.1) 15.1 (-14.1)

12/13/1943 28.5 (+4.8) 24.6 ( -4.6)

6) 12/11/1912 25.5 (+1.8) 29.0 ( -0.2)

7) 12/09/1922 24.0 (+0.3) 13.4 (-15.8)

12/09/1947 23.8 (+0.1) 11.2 (-18.0)

12/09/1961 19.5 (-4.2) 39.9 (+10.7)

12/09/2011 30.0 (+6.3) 21.3 ( -7.9)

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECASTS IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL

REACH AT LEAST FREEZING AND LIKELY QUITE A BIT WARMER THROUGH

DECEMBER 15TH...WHICH WOULD MOVE THIS YEAR UP TO RANKED AT LEAST 4TH

IN ROCKFORD AND AT LEAST 11TH IN CHICAGO. CURRENT LONGER RANGE

OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SUGGEST THAT

TEMPERATURES DECEMBER 16TH THROUGH 24TH ON THE WHOLE WILL REMAIN

ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE WONT BE A COUPLE COLD

DAYS...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE MILD START TO WINTER WILL

CONTINUE.

GOING THIS FAR INTO THE SEASON WITHOUT HAVING HAD A BELOW FREEZING

DAY DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT THE REST OF THE WINTER WILL BE

MILD OR SNOWFALL BELOW AVERAGE AND SHOULD NOT BEE USED AS A

PREDICTIVE TOOL FOR THE SEASON. HAVING SAID THAT...

IN ROCKFORD...OF THE 10 YEARS THAT HAD NOT SEEN A HIGH TEMPERATURE

BELOW FREEZING BY DECEMBER 9TH...6 OF THEM ENDED UP WITH MUCH ABOVE

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AND MUCH BELOW AVERAGE SNOWFALL.

ONLY 1 OF THE 10 YEARS ENDED UP SNOWIER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL.

IN CHICAGO...IT IS A VERY SIMILAR STORY WITH THE MAJORITY OF YEARS

THAT HADNT SEEN A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING YET ENDING UP

WARMER AND LESS SNOWY THAN NORMAL (MANY OF THEM SIGNIFICANTLY SO).

CHICAGO DID HAVE A COUPLE OF VERY NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS...INCLUDING THE

WINTER OF 1961-62 WHEN THE FIRST SUBFREEZING DAY WAS NOT UNTIL

DECEMBER 13TH...YET THAT WINTER WENT ON TO SEE 50 INCHES OF SNOW

(JUST FROM DEC-FEB) AND AVERAGED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

INTERESTINGLY...THE WINTER OF 1998-99 DIDNT SEE A HIGH TEMPERATURE

BELOW FREEZING UNTIL DECEMBER 22ND YET ONE OF THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS

IN CHICAGO HISTORY OCCURRED AROUND THE NEW YEAR THAT WINTER. SO

WHILE STATISTICALLY SPEAKING YEARS WITH SIMILAR LATE FIRST

SUBFREEZING DAYS HAVE OVERWHELMING ENDED UP WARMER AND LESS SNOWY

THAN AVERAGE...THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THIS WINTER WILL BE THE

SAME AS 1961-62 PROVES!

$$

IZZI

[Hoosier]

Looks doubtful that there will be any subfreezing highs at ORD in the next week, which would move 2012 into 7th place on that list. After that who knows.

[Chicago Storm]

Update...

Tied for the lastest measurable snow on record. Also moved into 10th for the latest sub-32F high temp...and should continue at through Wed.

Longest Periods Without Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 286 Days - 3/5-12/15/2012

2. 280 Days - 3/1-12/05/1994

3. 277 Days - 3/10-12/11/1946

4. 269 Days - 3/11-12/4/1999

Latest First Measurable (0.1"+) Snow:

1. 12/16/2012

1. 12/16/1965

3. 12/14/2001

4. 12/12/1946

5. 12/10/2003

6. 12/9/2011

6. 12/9/1948

8. 12/7/1914

9. 12/6/1994

10. 12/5/1999

10. 12/5/1984

10. 12/5/1973

10. 12/5/1909

Latest Sub-32F High temp:

1. 1/1/1923

2. 12/28/1971

3. 12/25/1918

4. 12/24/2001

5. 12/22/1998

6. 12/21/1939

7. 12/18/1921

8. 12/17/1999

8. 12/17/1987

10. 12/16/2012

10. 12/16/1878

[Chicago Storm]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

926 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012 /1026 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012/

..2012 RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL

THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF DECEMBER 2012 HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST

STARTS TO THE MONTH ON RECORD. FOR ROCKFORD THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MONTH HAS BEEN 39.8F DEGREES WHICH MAKES IT

THE 2ND WARMEST ON RECORD...RANKING ONLY BEHIND 1998 WHEN THE

AVERAGE WAS 41.9F. THE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH IS

27.7F SO ITS BEEN AVERAGING MORE THAN 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PER

DAY.

IT IS A SIMILAR STORY FOR CHICAGO WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS

BEEN 41.3F...WHICH MAKES THIS THE 3RD WARMEST START TO DECEMBER

ON RECORD BEHIND 1913 (41.8F) AND 1998 (44.8F). CHICAGO'S AVERAGE

TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER IS 29.9F MEANING THIS

MONTH IS RUNNING MORE THAN 11 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE PER DAY.

NEXT...AFTER NO MEASURABLE SNOW FALLS TODAY...CHICAGO WILL TIE

THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.

IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THIS RECORD WILL BE BROKEN TOMORROW AS THE

NEARLY SNOW-LESS START TO THE 2012 WINTER CONTINUES. CHICAGO IS

ALSO CONTINUING TO ADD TO THE RECORD BREAKING STREAK OF

CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. TODAY WILL BE THE

287TH STRAIGHT DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW. THE PREVIOUS RECORD

WAS 280 DAYS BACK IN 1994.

TODAY WILL ALSO BE ROCKFORDS 287TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT

MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD WHICH WAS SET BACK

IN 1922. TOMORROW THIS STREAK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN...WITH

ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AT LEAST PROBABLY TACKED ONTO THEIR NEW

RECORD.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE WEEKS LEFT IN 2012...IT IS VERY

LIKELY THAT 2012 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD

IN CHICAGO...AND ROCKFORD MAY VERY WELL BREAK THEIR RECORD FOR

WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD. THROUGH DECEMBER 15TH THE AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE IN CHICAGO FOR 2012 HAS BEEN 55.6F WHICH IS ONLY 0.2F

COOLER THAN WHERE WE WERE IN 1921 ON DECEMBER 15TH. IN ORDER TO

BREAK THE RECORD FOR 1921...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO HAVE TO REMAIN

CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

IN ROCKFORD THROUGH DECEMBER 15TH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 2012

HAS BEEN 54.3F WHICH IS 0.7F WARMER THAN WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE

THROUGH DEC 15TH IN 1931...THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD IN ROCKFORD.

IN ORDER FOR 2012 TO NOT BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST YEAR EVER

IN ROCKFORD THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

FINALLY...YESTERDAY WAS THE 312TH DAY THIS YEAR THAT CHICAGO HAD A

HIGH TEMPERATURE OF AT LEAST 40F. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE

MOST NUMBER OF 40F+ DAYS IN A YEAR EVER IN CHICAGO WITH THE PREVIOUS

RECORD BEING 311 DAYS BACK IN 1998. WITH 2 WEEKS LEFT TO GO IN 2012

WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THIS RECORD WITH TODAY ALREADY BEING THE

313TH DAY AND SEVERAL MORE 40F+ DAYS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK

ALONE.

UNDOUBTEDLY 2012 IS GOING TO BE A YEAR THAT IS REMEMBERED FOR

RE-WRITING THE RECORD BOOKS...PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO

WARMTH...LACK OF RAIN AND LACK OF SNOW.