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July 17-20 severe weather


Roger Smith

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0227 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191927Z - 192100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE

WEATHER THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.

DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING NEAR A SURFACE

LOW...NOW CENTERED NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD

TOWARD THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING

RATHER STEEP WITH CONTINUED HEATING...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES

INDICATE THAT CAPE FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS INCREASING IN

EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW IS

GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30

KT...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND PERHAPS SUPPORT AT LEAST

SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION. COUPLED WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BECOMING

INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY NOT BE

OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS

MORE PROMINENT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN

SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF

HOURS...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR A WARM

FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS

AFTERNOON.

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