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July 17-20 severe weather


Roger Smith

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Heavy rain for the last five minutes but now barely a whimper. Winds to 35-40 for a bit. Looks to be over rather quickly here.

To play off the words of a former football coach regarding our big but injury-decimated team back in college, "At least it[we] looked good getting off the bus."

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Copious amounts of lightning here! 2 more close C-G's, which set off car alarms again. ~1" of rain - haven't set foot outside yet with all the lightning.

Best storms of the year hands down! :thumbsup:

Skilling: 1.05" of rain in Elgin in 20 minutes!

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Looks like a broad 15% severe outlook for tomorrow in the Ohio Valley. I think Ohio and Indiana will have at least two severe watches tomorrow. Some of the shear parameters look pretty good for a change. The supercell composite parameter may be above 8 in Indiana or Ohio.

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Looks like another round of convection possible across the Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky areas. My model showing around Northern KY and Southern IN/OH indices around 20-23Z of LI's around -7, SFC CAPE's around 2,200 J/KG, ML CAPES aroun 1,826 J/KG. Early indications are 1" hail possibility and wind gusts up to 70mph possible across this region.

Posted this area's output at http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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