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July 17-20 severe weather


Roger Smith

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New mesoscale discussion:

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

558 PM CDT

CONVECTION FIRING ALONG FRONT/STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS INDEED CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND HAVE BEGUN

TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. STORMS TO THE EAST/COOL SIDE

OF THE BOUNDARY APPEAR TO BE ROOTED NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO BE

INGESTING THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG

SHEAR PROFILES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUNKERS

RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL VECTORS SUGGEST WELL ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS

WOULD PUSH SSE AT ABOUT 20KT...AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MORE

OF A SOUTHERLY PROPAGATION DEVELOPING WITH THE INTENSE CELL IN ROCK

COUNTY. A SSE MOTION WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORM FAIRLY CLOSE TO

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN IT RIDING VERY NEAR THE

BOUNDARY AND REAPING THE BENEFITS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY

NEAR THE FRONT.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

AS THEY COULD DEVELOP SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE STRONGER

SHEAR PROFILES NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY

WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THAN PREVIOUSLY

THOUGHT...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT

SPREADS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW...THOUGH IF

MESOCYCLONE CAN RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT

BE AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE REAR INFLOW JET APPARENT ON KMKX WITH SW

WI CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THAT CLUSTER ON A MORE

EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND EITHER NORTH OF JUST BARELY INTO OUR

NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

Can see the anvils from the storms nicely overhead.

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TWC: 60-70mph winds associated with this line.

Hope I get some rain tonight... Getting quite dark here.

0541 PM TSTM WND GST LONE ROCK AIRPORT 43.21N 90.19W

07/18/2012 M60 MPH SAUK WI ASOS

0612 PM TSTM WND DMG SAUK CITY 43.27N 89.73W

07/18/2012 SAUK WI 911 CALL CENTER

SIDE OF ACE HARDWARE STORE BLOWN IN. TREES ALSO REPORTED

DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0550 PM HAIL 4 N ORFORDVILLE 42.69N 89.26W

07/18/2012 E2.00 INCH ROCK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

SIGNIFICANT HAIL DAMAGE TO A FARM HOUSE...LARGE HOLES

PUNCHED IN ROOF. TIME AND HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED BASED ON

RADAR.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N ORFORDVILLE 42.66N 89.26W

07/18/2012 ROCK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE HEALTHY BRANCHES DOWNED...SIX INCHES IN

DIAMETER...AT A LOCATION ALONG HIGHWAY 213. TIME BASED ON

RADAR.

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Looks like Rockford's in for a nice storm. Looks like the storms should follow the boundary right into Chicago over the next hour or two.

nice call by the SPC was looking dicey there but they've built south nicely into the deeper instability/theta-e gradient...boundary should help.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

757 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

EASTERN OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROSCOE TO ROCKFORD TO ROCKFORD AIRPORT TO STILLMAN VALLEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

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Heck yes. Let's do this. These were on way to weekly concert on the Square with one hell of a view.

The concert band conductor just said, "I don't know if it is going to rain or not, but we are going to proceed as if it wasn't."

Wizard of Oz medley playing now as gazebo weather vane swings into north-northwest.

post-855-134266026887.jpg

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Western/southern metro going to get it hard this evening.

no doubt, I should have trusted my gut instead of letting Joe drag me down :weenie:

Anyways, looks like a solid wind threat as this thing bows out. The whole metro should get a needed soaking as well.

Some of the hi-res guidance did really well this morning picking up on this (as they have for the past month+ when the trigger is obvious enough)

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