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SNE severe/convective thread IX...or whatever number we're on


weatherwiz

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Kevin, those clouds you see are altocumulus-castellanus clouds. Tell that one at the water cooler. A good sign of mid level instability.

.The sky is covered with these clouds all of the sudden.

Done.

One of the guys in the office is flying to Florida this afternoon. His wife is petrified of flying.

My wife is flying back from LGA today.

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7AM UPDATE...

A FEW SCT -SHRA ARE MOVING OFF OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING IN BAND OF

WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS

FRONT...PER LATEST MSAS AND OBS LOOKS TO BE DRAPED FROM WRN MAINE

SW TO SRN NH/VT AND INTO CENTRAL NY STATE. SO IT APPEARS THAT IT

IS JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE BOX CWA THIS HOUR...AND WILL

GRADUALLY BEGIN SLIDING SE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DUE TO THE

FRONTS LOCATION TO THE N AND THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING

OFFSHORE...THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD

AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS EARLY TODAY. SO SUSPECT WE WILL

BEGIN TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO THE 18Z

TIMEFRAME...WHICH IS GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY HRRR/WRF MODEL DATA.

GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS/DWPTS/SKIES/POPS UP

TO THE EXPECTED TRENDS. HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE WX

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS AS SBCAPE

VALUES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE REACHING AND LIKELY EXCEEDING

1500J/KG BY AROUND NOON. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY BULK SHEAR VALUES

AROUND 30-40 KT...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM ABOUT

6.5C/KM...WHICH IS THE DOMINANT MITIGATING FACTOR TO WATCH ATTM.

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Kevin, those clouds you see are altocumulus-castellanus clouds. Tell that one at the water cooler. A good sign of mid level instability.

.The sky is covered with these clouds all of the sudden.

It reminds me of the sky the morning of 6/1/11, when all of a sudden that line blew up out of nowhere. Obviously, not comparing the set-ups, but interesting to see....

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OSU did a good job sniffing out the stronger than modeled EML. The 3z SREF was definitely more robust with the 7c/km MLLR probabilities and the 00z soundings indicated that too.

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A shame we cant get these to stick around all day...Though it may work out to the advantage of our southeast new englanders out there to get these storms in the late morning/before your typical desired peak heating time..to capitalize on these MLLRs.

A lot of our severe days come as steeper lapse rates/modified EMLs are on their way our. We seem to capitalize a lot on the tail end of these things.

That said the models do keep decent lapse rates around through at least 18z in these parts.

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A shame we cant get these to stick around all day...Though it may work out to the advantage of our southeast new englanders out there to get these storms in the late morning/before your typical desired peak heating time..to capitalize on these MLLRs.

On a semi-related note, I wonder if the La Nina-tendency on the global pattern has even had a modifying effect on our potential today. The mid-July EML potential we were speculating to happen did to some degree materialize but not as strongly so as the original forecast in the long range. Perhaps if we had more of an El Nino-tendency, I wonder if the overall jet stream / wave structure would have been improved and increased our wind shear probabilities.

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