NECT Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I meant a setup that would very obviously warrant such an outlook (particularly in the synoptic sense, but also from a meso/micro scale point of view as well). The 6/1/11 setup, IMO, was a 10%, sig-hatched tor-warranted setup, the storm coverage (particularly concerning discrete, long-lived supercells) was just not enough to warrant anything further (same with 6/9/53 in all likelihood). We'd all be doing the Wiz dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Haven't seen any lightning as of yet. at least one warning flying in C NH now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Nice outflow boundary visible on radar southeast of Albany. Hard to predict these things, but it looks like it could end up in a position to potentially influence tomorrow's action. Be nice if it eventually stalls out draped across southern CT, for instance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 for archiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I think SNE from South of Mass Pike and from CT west to SENY get crushed tomorrow. Mesoscale boundaries will be huge and there WILL BE discrete cells for sure even a couple of supercells. If the action across NNY and NNE from today was any example there will be more than a few storms with destructive winds. DCAPE values will be VERY high tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Well that was interesting from SPC... Day 2 1730 had 30% in PA/NY/SNE... and Day 1 0600 is 0 tor/15 hail/15 wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Going to be real interesting to see how everything evolves today. I can actually see why the SPC only went with the minimum for the slight risk side. Anyways, while the SPC SREF runs last night (21z and 3z) both increased severe wx probs and Sig Svr probs runs of the NAM/GFS were a little more questionable I think. The NAM (especially 6z run) really turns those winds in the lowest 850mb northwesterly quite quickly and this would really help to lessen the amount of convergence along the front and does dry out portions of the lower-levels of the atmosphere reducing the amount of MLcape. The NAM though does actually slightly increase 500mb winds early on...a bit more than previously across portions of southern areas but still the strongest winds are located further north away from the strongest instability. The GFS does turn winds in the lowest 850mb more northwesterly as well, however, this happens a bit slower than on the NAM. The WRF develops convection as early as 10 AM and moves it through MA/CT from 11 AM to about 2 PM or so...getting convection to move through this early could be a problem as this would allow us to probably not destabilize to our fullest potential. It's also interesting to note the WRF develops a second band of convection late this evening and last through much of the night. Andy brings up some great points too, there will be quite a few boundaries out there and this could enhance the threat for some supercells and discrete cells, low-level shear is rather weak so a tornado threat seems unlikely, however, this could increase the potential for some large hail. The SPC SREF has boosted up supercell parameters slightly. Another thing is convection may be more limited south of central CT or so...the further south you go away from the boundary the less in the way of convergence and upper level support you have. Despite strong instability convection south of here may be more isolated but will still pose a threat for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Going to be right on the line at home, think I'd rather be just to the south. Anyways, looks good for CT/RI/SE MA. I think those areas will get hit pretty hard. Maybe not all severe, but a nice round of storms will some sev..maybe even a siggy report or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Going to be right on the line at home, think I'd rather be just to the south. Anyways, looks good for CT/RI/SE MA. I think those areas will get hit pretty hard. Maybe not all severe, but a nice round of storms will some sev..maybe even a siggy report or two. Despite the mediocre shear if we can get SBcape values above 3000-3500 J/KG and keep those MLcape values around 2000-2500 J/KG than I think we could see a sig severe report or two. If we get less Cape values though it may be a bit more difficult to get sig severe but we would still see a solid amount of reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Despite the mediocre shear if we can get SBcape values above 3000-3500 J/KG and keep those MLcape values around 2000-2500 J/KG than I think we could see a sig severe report or two. If we get less Cape values though it may be a bit more difficult to get sig severe but we would still see a solid amount of reports. I think shear is adequate. 40kts at 500mb in CT right now...more than enough given possible MLCAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Looks pretty meh to me, all the dyamics move NE into Canada not sure why SPC is gung ho, upton not impressed Looks like spc reduced the probs from day 2, makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Looks like spc reduced the probs from day 2, makes sense Looks fine to me. Not sure what you are talking about. If you are expecting some strong to severe storms, looks good for much of CT/RI and near/just south of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Looks fine to me. Not sure what you are talking about. If you are expecting some strong to severe storms, looks good for much of CT/RI and near/just south of BOS. He's one of the biggest trollers here. Most of us have him on ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Going to be real interesting to see how everything evolves today. I can actually see why the SPC only went with the minimum for the slight risk side. Anyways, while the SPC SREF runs last night (21z and 3z) both increased severe wx probs and Sig Svr probs runs of the NAM/GFS were a little more questionable I think. The NAM (especially 6z run) really turns those winds in the lowest 850mb northwesterly quite quickly and this would really help to lessen the amount of convergence along the front and does dry out portions of the lower-levels of the atmosphere reducing the amount of MLcape. The NAM though does actually slightly increase 500mb winds early on...a bit more than previously across portions of southern areas but still the strongest winds are located further north away from the strongest instability. The GFS does turn winds in the lowest 850mb more northwesterly as well, however, this happens a bit slower than on the NAM. The WRF develops convection as early as 10 AM and moves it through MA/CT from 11 AM to about 2 PM or so...getting convection to move through this early could be a problem as this would allow us to probably not destabilize to our fullest potential. It's also interesting to note the WRF develops a second band of convection late this evening and last through much of the night. Andy brings up some great points too, there will be quite a few boundaries out there and this could enhance the threat for some supercells and discrete cells, low-level shear is rather weak so a tornado threat seems unlikely, however, this could increase the potential for some large hail. The SPC SREF has boosted up supercell parameters slightly. Another thing is convection may be more limited south of central CT or so...the further south you go away from the boundary the less in the way of convergence and upper level support you have. Despite strong instability convection south of here may be more isolated but will still pose a threat for severe weather. WRF is garbage..It had nasty storms in Ma and Ct for yesterday afternoon and there wasn't a cloud in the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 He's one of the biggest trollers here. Most of us have him on ignore I mean, if he expects a derecho...I don't know what to say. Looks good for some strong to severe storms thrown around. Not everywhere, but could be fairly widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Hopefully today works out for everyone. With the slow movement of that front you can envision a lot of backbuilding and training of storms with inches of rain for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Hopefully today works out for everyone. With the slow movement of that front you can envision a lot of backbuilding and training of storms with inches of rain for some I hope I get something. I'm gonna be close to the initialization point..just hope it's not south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I just looked outside and there's already some towering CU popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Is there any rain north of boston today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I'd expect SPC to have 30% over just about all of SNE with the morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Looks fine to me. Not sure what you are talking about. If you are expecting some strong to severe storms, looks good for much of CT/RI and near/just south of BOS. SPC reduced the wind prob from 30% yesterday back down to 15% today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 SPC reduced the wind prob from 30% yesterday back down to 15% today. That doesn't mean anything to me. We've had our best days with see texts. I don't see why we won't have some strong to severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 That doesn't mean anything to me. We've had our best days with see texts. I don't see why we won't have some strong to severe storms. I am sure we will see severe reports today, I just dont expect anything widespread as far as severe. Best shear and CAPE seems displaced as it usually is in most of our setups. I am also concered we mix out the dews with a west north west wind before we can get the storms really going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I am sure we will see severe reports today, I just dont expect anything widespread as far as severe. Best shear and CAPE seems displaced as it usually is in most of our setups. I am also concered we mix out the dews with a west north west wind before we can get the storms really going. I don't think we'll mix out at all. 925 and 850 TDs are high and we have high precip water values and KI. Plenty of juice, especially south of the pike. I think we have a good combo of CAPE and shear for SNE standards. Sure not every town will see severe, but for SNE standards it looks good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I am sure we will see severe reports today, I just dont expect anything widespread as far as severe. Best shear and CAPE seems displaced as it usually is in most of our setups. I am also concered we mix out the dews with a west north west wind before we can get the storms really going. That won't be a problem today. And many areas (particularly CT/RI) have certainly have a favorable overlay of deep layer shear/instability for widespread severe. If we're talking about significant severe then you're right - parameters do fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 That won't be a problem today. And many areas (particularly CT/RI) have certainly have a favorable overlay of deep layer shear/instability for widespread severe. If we're talking about significant severe then you're right - parameters do fall short. Yeah I feel kind of bullish for you guys. I wish these lapse rates overhead would hang around. Still should be maybe 6.5-7C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It's 79.4/72 here.. Good start and good omen to see those CU towers already firing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Ill be around pike today outside of 128.. Blackberry chargd w radar ready to roll!let's get this shiat humididity out of here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Yeah I feel kind of bullish for you guys. I wish these lapse rates overhead would hang around. Still should be maybe 6.5-7C? Yeah lapse rates are decent... but short of high-end kind of stuff. I think we get whacked today but I feel that sig svr (2" hail/65knot winds) will be pretty isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Yeah lapse rates are decent... but short of high-end kind of stuff. I think we get whacked today but I feel that sig svr (2" hail/65knot winds) will be pretty isolated. Yep, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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