ChrisM Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Think there's too much CIN..Mid levels are awfully warm right now To my amateur eyes the mesoanalysis looked pretty unstable but due to the new forum rules I must say I am wrong and you are right and I am sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 .PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOT. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Just picture it, Wiz gets back from camp and it's been a long hot day in the sun. He opens up the SPC page and goes to the outlook for tomorrow. His room is 95 degrees from lack of AC and he just about loses his bowel control. Clothed to naked in 5 seconds when he sees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 I think we certainly have to watch for some sort of action possibly later this evening/early overnight across parts of the region at least. It's awfully unstable down here and we will keep unstable through the night. Just something to watch anyways. I agree with the thoughts of wind shift tomorrow. If that does indeed happen and we do dry out the lower-levels some this would potentially preclude a more widespread/significant severe weather event from occurring. Regardless though tomorrow should be quite active with a good amount of severe reports but the question is will we see something more widespread/significant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I think we certainly have to watch for some sort of action possibly later this evening/early overnight across parts of the region at least. It's awfully unstable down here and we will keep unstable through the night. Just something to watch anyways. I agree with the thoughts of wind shift tomorrow. If that does indeed happen and we do dry out the lower-levels some this would potentially preclude a more widespread/significant severe weather event from occurring. Regardless though tomorrow should be quite active with a good amount of severe reports but the question is will we see something more widespread/significant? Shear at this point looks sort of meh... a few things to keep this from becoming too big. Still it will be quite active. Looks good in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looks pretty meh to me, all the dyamics move NE into Canada not sure why SPC is gung ho, upton not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Shear at this point looks sort of meh... a few things to keep this from becoming too big. Still it will be quite active. Looks good in general. I'd like to see some stronger shear but at least there is pretty solid speed shear in place with a full unidirectional flow. Big Capes too could compensate some for the lack of stronger shear with some pretty nasty downward acceleration on rain cooled air. I know what makes this threat tomorrow a bit more "scary" at least in CT is tomorrow the Rock Cats have a late morning game and there will be many camps across the state at the game, mine included. Should see tons of CG too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 in warner NH right now near I89. hope to see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I also put a Ginx factor of 7 for some flooding tomorrow evening along parts of the south coast. I wonder if I even see anything. I could see myself on the line. LOL, figures back to work tomorrow, my building does not do intense rain very well in spots, although for 360,000 sq ft of roof and glass only a couple of spots give me trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 in warner NH right now near I89. hope to see something. Looks good for that spot. Don't move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looks good for that spot. Don't move i have no radar but getting intense cg lightnibg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Of course I miss another Lakes Region special. Decent line moving through there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Decent line moving through there now. Yeah I'll be up there next week. I usually get at least one decent storm when I'm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 This chase cam might have a nice shot at that line. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=kyle.avery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Sitting at work in Merrimack, NH... Hopefully I can get clipped by the storm! I think the storms that are currently in the Adirondack's might give us some action later on as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Beast of a storm popped over Dendrite and now moving ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looking very threatening here atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looking very threatening here atm. "Life threatening" or it doesn't rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looks like my son might get hit by the cell in sw NH... that will sstink for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 "Life threatening" or it doesn't rate. Over 10" of rain here during the first week in June, and now I can't get enough to wet my whistle these last few weeks. Threatening skies now, but nothing on radar near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Was a pretty decent cell, but not severe here. Seemed to shimmy around me a bit. There were gusty winds, no way it was 60 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 hmmm, let's pull people from the Banter thread and get them talking about the severe threat...i'm getting a little excited...or i'm just a momon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Had gusty winds all the way from Warner to Dunbarton. Definitely some limbs down, small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 hmmm, let's pull people from the Banter thread and get them talking about the severe threat...i'm getting a little excited...or i'm just a momon Biggest momon on the site. I think tomorrow will be interesting. We stave off dry air, we rip. Could be "the day" of 2012 for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Had gusty winds all the way from Warner to Dunbarton. Definitely some limbs down, small hail. What size was the hail? What time did the hail occur and what was your exact location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 With the issues regarding the possibility of drying out the lower levels a bit and shear not being overly strong that will preclude this from being a monstrous damaging wind producing day but we certainly will see a fair share of damaging wind reports along with some hail reports. If shear was stronger though and we didn't have worries of mixing out low-level moisture tomorrow would probably be a solid moderate risk type day with a substantial number of wind damage reports....probably similar to that of 7/18/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Had gusty winds all the way from Warner to Dunbarton. Definitely some limbs down, small hail. There was a Storm report for winds estimated 60mph up right near there. /threadcrashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 What size was the hail? What time did the hail occur and what was your exact location? I didn't get out to measure but it was roughly peas to .5" and it occured near Contoocook/Hopkinton line around like 6:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 I didn't get out to measure but it was roughly peas to .5" and it occured near Contoocook/Hopkinton line around like 6:30 Thanks! Did you notice any limbs down? If you did do you know the streets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I've probably been jinxing the storms by putting out a camera.. here's the height of the storm here.. prepare to be underwhelmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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