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SNE severe/convective thread IX...or whatever number we're on


weatherwiz

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You know what I find odd is there were no damage reports anywhere around BDL. They had a gust to 61 mph so surely there was some trees down. This happened a year or 2 ago when they reported strong winds in a severe storm and i drove up there that day after work and there was nothing down.. Not even leaves in Suffield or Windsor. I find it hard to believe the only place that had that gust was right over the ASOS

It was actually 63 mph. But yeah I didn't hear of any damage reports around there.

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A sudden 63 mph Nw gust in a squall is certainly going to take some trees down anywhere.

Well you would think so but i have clocked winds in the 60's in gust's and have had limited effects other then some small branches getting strewn around, Of course if they fall in the middle of the woods somewhere i wont see it or hear it.........lol

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And I bet that was in winter with no leaves in trees. Not even any limbs down reports

No, It was when we have had a couple tropical systems come thru here, Winter time in some of these Nor 'easters 40-50 mph is common, But it is kind of odd that there is no reports at all down that way

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No, It was when we have had a couple tropical systems come thru here, Winter time in some of these Nor 'easters 40-50 mph is common, But it is kind of odd that there is no reports at all down that way

You can probably see an instantaneous gust to 55 knots and not see much damage. If you start getting 30-45 seconds of it you're going to start getting damage. Also some of these gusts can be quite isolated. It's conceivable 50+ knot gusts were spread out over a large portion of the airport and there were few trees to actually damage.

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You can probably see an instantaneous gust to 55 knots and not see much damage. If you start getting 30-45 seconds of it you're going to start getting damage. Also some of these gusts can be quite isolated. It's conceivable 50+ knot gusts were spread out over a large portion of the airport and there were few trees to actually damage.

That was my thinking, I am very familiar with Windsor Locks and Bradley, Not many trees right around the airport is for certain so would not expect much damage there but a quick burst as you mentioned would not produce as much damage as winds sustained at these higher speeds, So it may have been over a smaller isolated area, I guess tipped lawn chairs and umbrellas don't count............. :lol:

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The microburst in Danbury near one of the middle schools may have produced 70+ knot gusts based on the damage I've seen on video.

And those are entirely a different animal and was caught in the middle of one at the Marina on Long Lake in Naples a few years back that picked up a wooden picnic table and tossed it 150' into the cove, Hvy, Hvy tree damage along with boats ripped from there moorings, Torn and missing boat canvas, Power poles bent right over on that one, I thought we were headed to Kansas like Dorothy as a bunch of us hit the deck in the store at the marina

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via a friend's FB

Some great storm structure photos out there from yesterday. Unfortunately, the piece of evidence that is getting touted as a funnel cloud near Lynn has me a bit skeptical. It is awfully shaky video, that is very zoomed in (no idea of storm structure and position). Can I say it isn't a funnel, no. Can I say it is a funnel, no. But to me it looks awfully like a low hanging, ragged shelf cloud. The shaking makes it very hard to determine potential rotation.

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The whole thing is very, very sketchy. it looked awful and no damage in any surrounding towns or at BDL.

I don't think it's sketchy... it happens. Sometimes you get an isolated gust from a crappy collapsing core. The METAR looked legit.

KBDL 181851Z 27007KT 10SM -TSRA BKN065CB 26/22 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 27055/1835 TSB30RAB26 SLP075 FRQLTG ICCG E SW TS E MOV E DSNT SW MOV E P0033 T02560222 $

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In regards to the Lynn storm, according to this article NWS is saying yes it's a funnel based entirely on the video!

Officials said a swirling cloud that started to reach toward the ground near Lynn appeared to be a funnel cloud, leading the National Weather Service to issue a tornado warning for the area.

Glenn Field, of the NWS, said after seeing videos of the cloud, it did appear to be the beginning of a funnel cloud. The Weather Service said it does not have any reports of a tornado touching down in the area, but it did see what appeared to be a waterspout touch down off the coast of Nahant on radar.

For real? I've looked and looked at that footage and there is no obvious rotation I can see, no real motion at all, in fact it's pretty clear there is not rotation at the top portion of the so-called funnel. There's no way I would say it's definitely a funnel. Maybe they have access to some other video that shows more? They do mention videos, in the plural. If there is other better footage I'd love to see it. I find it strange that they would go that far based on this footage alone. Heck, if that's a funnel then what I saw is definitely a funnel.

In regard to the other funnel image that someone posted, the one taken at the airport, I wouldn't definitively call that one a funnel either. What looks at first like a funnel tapering down towards the ground might be a trick of perspective, I can just as easily see it as a linear cloud base tapering off into the distance rather than down.

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Here's an email we got from the NWS yesterday about it

Hi all,

As FYI, we do believe that the photos on You Tube and elsewhere were of a legitimate funnel cloud from Woburn to Peabody to Nahant, MA ... and based on radar, which intensified east of there, it may have even touched down as a waterspout a few miles east of Nahant. There were no reports to confirm this... hopefully there were no boats there.

-- Glenn

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In regards to the Lynn storm, according to this article NWS is saying yes it's a funnel based entirely on the video!

For real? I've looked and looked at that footage and there is no obvious rotation I can see, no real motion at all, in fact it's pretty clear there is not rotation at the top portion of the so-called funnel. There's no way I would say it's definitely a funnel. Maybe they have access to some other video that shows more? They do mention videos, in the plural. If there is other better footage I'd love to see it. I find it strange that they would go that far based on this footage alone. Heck, if that's a funnel then what I saw is definitely a funnel.

In regard to the other funnel image that someone posted, the one taken at the airport, I wouldn't definitively call that one a funnel either. What looks at first like a funnel tapering down towards the ground might be a trick of perspective, I can just as easily see it as a linear cloud base tapering off into the distance rather than down.

Based off the photos near Logan that I've seen, there is some excellent HP structure to the storm (which matches radar well). There is a well defined inflow tail, large precip core with shelf cloud on the leading edge, and the meso would be tucked back behind the precip immediately west of the inflow tail. This would make seeing a funnel cloud very difficult without being in the bear's cage. At the same time, based on that type of structure there was a well defined low level circulation present, and a funnel cloud is not out of the question. I just don't think the video shows one.

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Here's an email we got from the NWS yesterday about it

Hi all,

As FYI, we do believe that the photos on You Tube and elsewhere were of a legitimate funnel cloud from Woburn to Peabody to Nahant, MA ... and based on radar, which intensified east of there, it may have even touched down as a waterspout a few miles east of Nahant. There were no reports to confirm this... hopefully there were no boats there.

-- Glenn

yesssss!!!!!!

we called it as it happened...

just wish we had someone on a boat somewhere that could snap a photo with the Boston skyline in the background, talk about spectacular and rare photo!

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Based off the photos near Logan that I've seen, there is some excellent HP structure to the storm (which matches radar well). There is a well defined inflow tail, large precip core with shelf cloud on the leading edge, and the meso would be tucked back behind the precip immediately west of the inflow tail. This would make seeing a funnel cloud very difficult without being in the bear's cage. At the same time, based on that type of structure there was a well defined low level circulation present, and a funnel cloud is not out of the question. I just don't think the video shows one.

I thought it may be one of those leading edge type lowering scud or perhaps rotating funnel, but it looked tough to see rotation.

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Based off the photos near Logan that I've seen, there is some excellent HP structure to the storm (which matches radar well). There is a well defined inflow tail, large precip core with shelf cloud on the leading edge, and the meso would be tucked back behind the precip immediately west of the inflow tail. This would make seeing a funnel cloud very difficult without being in the bear's cage. At the same time, based on that type of structure there was a well defined low level circulation present, and a funnel cloud is not out of the question. I just don't think the video shows one.

Yeah, I agree. I'm not saying it definitely wasn't a funnel, it could well be a funnel - there was enough rotation in the cell for sure - but I just can't tell one way or the other based on the video and pics I've seen so far.

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I thought it may be one of those leading edge type lowering scud or perhaps rotating funnel, but it looked tough to see rotation.

I may just be more conservative on these things. I don't think that video shows one way or another, therefore why are we choosing to say it is a funnel cloud?

I don't think we need to constantly dumb things down for public consumption. We say funnel cloud, and that becomes tornado, and then all the damage on the North Shore becomes tornado damage.

Then again I am just downloading the data now, so maybe I see something that changes my mind.

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I may just be more conservative on these things. I don't think that video shows one way or another, therefore why are we choosing to say it is a funnel cloud?

I don't think we need to constantly dumb things down for public consumption. We say funnel cloud, and that becomes tornado, and then all the damage on the North Shore becomes tornado damage.

Then again I am just downloading the data now, so maybe I see something that changes my mind.

I have no idea either. To me I couldn't tell one way or another, just throwing the possibility it may be a classic SNE scraggly looking deal. I really couldn't say. I didn't look at it hard enough or long enough to be honest.

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Well after taking a look at the data, that storm really went to town just offshore. If anyone was caught in that, I bet it was a wild ride.

At first taking a look at reflectivity data, I'm surprised there weren't more significant hail reports from the North Shore. Dual-pol data actually helps out quite a bit in this case. ZDRs are near 0, so hail is dominating the signal, and CCs have a corresponding reduction in values. However, KDPs remain quite high, indicating that a lot of liquid water is present in the volume, and very heavy rainfall was occurring at the time based on flooding reports.

This is in stark contrast to a few volume scans later, once the storm had moved east of Nahant.

ZDR actually becomes negative at the lowest elevation, indicating possibly giant hail.

Very low CC again matches the very large hail idea.

As a result, KDP is not calculated for this area, and that black hole of no data can be a clue to large hail.

The storm relative motion is interesting, in that the areas that draw your eye are far removed from the reflectivity gradients (where you would expect a tornadic signature to be). So I think we're looking more at the low level inflow into the storm rather than tornadic circulations.

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