dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looks like some of the first potential severe cells firing over extreme NW NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Just had a loud rumble of thunder here in Lyndonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 still looks relatively stable over northern NY. MLCAPE values are quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Radar looks impeccable for NNY/VT. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I'm more impressed with tomorrow's threat than today's. CAPE is forecast over 4500 in parts of PA today! too bad that's not further north. Still, keep an eye towards upstate NY and VT/NH. If storms get strong today, they could very well be just as strong, if not stronger tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 BUFKIT soundings look a bit more meh for tomorrow. NAM especially brings in a northwesterly flow in the boundary layer by late morning and while surface dews stay up we do advect in some drier air up toward the top of the BL. Results in somewhat meh MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Euro still gung ho tomorrow. Looks like front totally washes out and small scale boundaries may initiate storms? Euro also starts storms a little early..like early aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Euro still gung ho tomorrow. Looks like front totally washes out and small scale boundaries may initiate storms? Euro also starts storms a little early..like early aftn. Yeah it is. I just am a bit worried the boundary layer starts to dry. Agree though with an early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah it is. I just am a bit worried the boundary layer starts to dry. Agree though with an early start. I don't know what to think. Part of me says this is more of a CT/RI deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I don't know what to think. Part of me says this is more of a CT/RI deal. Here's NAM MLCAPE. Sort of meh. SBCAPE is obviously much more impressive but the boundary layer certainly isn't as juiced as it is sometimes during big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Here's NAM MLCAPE. Sort of meh. SBCAPE is obviously much more impressive but the boundary layer certainly isn't as juiced as it is sometimes during big events. I'm sure I'll be high and dry as usual. I have off and I fully expect to be in a hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Take a look at the 15z 2m winds on the NAM. blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I'm surprised the NAM is so aggressive with bringing it east, but the SREFs were too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I guess the storm in St Lawrence county in NY about to go tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 There is an intense line of thunderstorms entering Up State NY and instability parameters appear to suggest this may organize into some form of MCS/Derecho like event as it plows ESE toward central New England. If I were Rt poopers, I’d keep my eyes peeled this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 There is an intense line of thunderstorms entering Up State NY and instability parameters appear to suggest this may organize into some form of MCS/Derecho like event as it plows ESE toward central New England. If I were Rt poopers, I’d keep my eyes peeled this evening. How about SNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 There is an intense line of thunderstorms entering Up State NY and instability parameters appear to suggest this may organize into some form of MCS/Derecho like event as it plows ESE toward central New England. If I were Rt poopers, I’d keep my eyes peeled this evening. Yeah that line means business. That may visit Brian and that area in about 3-4 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah that line means business. That may visit Brian and that area in about 3-4 hrs. As this activity moves along it will sweep out an outflow boundary and S VT/S NH may get activity later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Marginal derecho indicies in western MA, but we're only talking on the order of 4-5 and we typically want 6+ to start getting excited. Craven's Significant Severe indices bullseye right over CT at nearly 40,000 m3/s3 (21z WED from NAM) and anything over 20K strongly favors intense severe weather. Not sure how much other people use it, but I've been reading more into the paramater...factors in deep layer shear and MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 SREFs look like they slowed a bit. Up to I-90, but still a CT/RI over to EWB type deal. NAM is still kind of fast. The euro almost implies anafrontal convection. Either that, or the front completely washes out as a wave tries to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 seems to be weakening as planned... Just bring it up/mention it, stops it every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Burlington VT radar shows a supercell crossing the St. Lawrence River southwest of Montreal. Also shown on Canadian radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 The cell moving towards Montreal looked pretty impressive earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 seems to be weakening as planned... Just bring it up/mention it, stops it every time lol Def works in the winter for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 SREFs look like they slowed a bit. Up to I-90, but still a CT/RI over to EWB type deal. NAM is still kind of fast. The euro almost implies anafrontal convection. Either that, or the front completely washes out as a wave tries to develop. Yeah... the NAM even too. The wind shift on the NAM is on the south coast by 15z with convection firing behind it. That's the kind of setup that screws the best instability up with drying through the boundary layer (even though sfc remains moist). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 i think the entire overnight might be susceptible to MCS generation. Whenever you have a static SW flow of hot humid air under a region of WNW or NW 500mb balanced wind, with a frontal boundary extending west to east to the north of you to serve as a trigger, clusters of storms can pop and start migrating right of the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 i think the entire overnight might be susceptible to MCS generation. Whenever you have a static SW flow of hot humid air under a region of WNW or NW 500mb balanced wind, with a frontal boundary extending west to east to the north of you to serve as a trigger, clusters of storms can pop and start migrating right of the environment. Doesn't seem likely anyone south of NH sees storms overnight. If we do it could ruin tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Marginal derecho indicies in western MA, but we're only talking on the order of 4-5 and we typically want 6+ to start getting excited. Craven's Significant Severe indices bullseye right over CT at nearly 40,000 m3/s3 (21z WED from NAM) and anything over 20K strongly favors intense severe weather. Not sure how much other people use it, but I've been reading more into the paramater...factors in deep layer shear and MLCAPE. Yeah tomorrow looks huge..Even Tornado Tony thinks so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah tomorrow looks huge..Even Tornado Tony thinks so I'm not thinking too huge. I think we'll have fun for sure but i think deep layer shear and mixed layer CAPE is a bit marginal for a huge/major day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I'm not thinking too huge. I think we'll have fun for sure but i think deep layer shear and mixed layer CAPE is a bit marginal for a huge/major day. Yeah you're right. I am wrong and I am sorry. Hopefully a few folks have a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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