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SNE severe/convective thread IX...or whatever number we're on


weatherwiz

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Yes it's sunny..but at this time of the day it doesn't matter. i don't like the SE motion of the rains in E NY/W CT. We may get totally hosed. I only had .11 from the storm earlier.

Well it does matter to a degree. Hell, prior to 10/3/79 around 4 PM the sun poked out at BDL and that helped to bump up sfc temps a bit which was able to add some more instability. If it was like 6 PM or 7 PM it wouldn't really matter but now this could give us a few degree temp boost which could be enough to help the atmosphere recover somewhat and Ryan mentioned that on air not too long ago.

Give me about 20 mins and I'll get back to you...

Thanks!

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Well it does matter to a degree. Hell, prior to 10/3/79 around 4 PM the sun poked out at BDL and that helped to bump up sfc temps a bit which was able to add some more instability. If it was like 6 PM or 7 PM it wouldn't really matter but now this could give us a few degree temp boost which could be enough to help the atmosphere recover somewhat and Ryan mentioned that on air not too long ago.

Thanks!

Everything is sliding SE now on radar as opposed to earlier when it was more due east. Unless we get some stuff to fire overhead which is possible...I think we're f'd

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Everything is sliding SE now on radar as opposed to earlier when it was more due east. Unless we get some stuff to fire overhead which is possible...I think we're f'd

Big bag of fail for alot of CT. NYC AND LI getting crushed. Hit or miss nature of these things. .05 here...

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The SPC is going to continue the watch which I'm sure they collaborated with the local offices...normally after the major batch moves through they start to cancel watches early and such. So everyone must be in agreement there still is potential out there although it will likely be much less isolated than what we saw earlier.

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Damaging wind potential still looks to be high (near 60 kts) along with heavy rain. Rain RAP data on the PC here at home. Rainfall rates of 1/2-3/4 inch per hour good bet. Could see as much as locally 3-4 inches in stronger cells slower moving or where training occurs. Interaction of convection with leftover boundaries could enhance LL shear and result in brief spin ups but again I think the threat is more WIND and R+++++ now.

SW CT and extreme SE CT to RI appear to be under the gun for the strongest storms. Best DPV his (forecast) to be here. Along with this region in favorable posn wrt to H500 jet. There also appears to be a bit of transverse circulation setting up between this jet and the H850 one.

In addition some mid-lvel cooling is forecast to track across SE CT and RI along with ALL of CT to SEMA forecast to be under a -10 to -20 (2HR) dKm 500 mb height fall center,

This data is from the latest RAP (4PM) model available

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Everything is sliding SE now on radar as opposed to earlier when it was more due east. Unless we get some stuff to fire overhead which is possible...I think we're f'd

The intense convection is now leaving behind a cold pool. This CP happened last night up here too. I think any subsequent storms will be more R+++ (1-3 inches?) makes with potential for NEAR severe winds (40-50 mph).

Still think coast line of NE esp from CT to RI could see severe storms.

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