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SNE severe/convective thread IX...or whatever number we're on


weatherwiz

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  On 7/18/2012 at 5:16 PM, Wx4cast said:

Blizz is right...CT SENY and NNJ are primed.

Below is a severe wx summary table.

post-110-0-13477600-1342631884_thumb.jpg

RI is Ricks Index to find out more about google it and convection together. The QPF tool is pretty neat. Here is a fast summary of the RI: IF RI <110...No Severe thunderstorms IF RI 140 ...50% probability for hail 1" diameter IF RI=145…50% probability for damaging winds (55kts) IF RI=150...40% probability for EF1 Tornado IF RI >160…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (50% probability @ RI=160)

Maglenta Eqn values: If S >= 3.5 Not Severe If 2.5 =< S < 3.5 Minor Severe Event If 1.5 =< S < 2.5 Major Severe Event If S < 1.5 Tornadic Event

That's pretty Dandy Andy.

I've seen ALB mention that Maglenta stuff before in their AFD's.

You think today's is mostly high end wind damage ? Any TOR potential?

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  On 7/18/2012 at 5:22 PM, CT Blizz said:

That's pretty Dandy Andy.

I've seen ALB mention that Maglenta stuff before in their AFD's.

You think today's is mostly high end wind damage ? Any TOR potential?

Leaning toward HIGH END WIND as DCAPES are very High 1000+ j/kg. Heavy rain too.

That said forecast soundings have very large and fat CAPE profiles so if any supercells develop could see some hail circa 1-1.5 inches. As for TOR potential low-level srh/ 0-3 K EHI is meh so if a TOR just a brief spin-up, EF1 intensity or <

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  On 7/18/2012 at 5:33 PM, CT Blizz said:

Look at the radar. It's always been an early show..This will be out of the state by 4-5:00..Your area looks good for the cells entering Litchfield Cty. I'm worried for me

Dude, you should be good for at least some action. Pipe down weenie.

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