HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Pic Thanks for the pic forky and good luck today ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Excellent synopsis and write up Ryan. Let's rock today. Peak severe wx season for us is now. All downhill from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Great blog, Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 similar CAPE/shear parameters to what we saw yesterday over WNY. However, it looks like the lift is better in SNE today and you won't have to break a 13C 700mb cap from an EML. SPC SREF post-processed guidance is putting a nice 40% severe area right near the MA/CT/RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Good to hear we at least have a shot at storms today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 similar CAPE/shear parameters to what we saw yesterday over WNY. However, it looks like the lift is better in SNE today and you won't have to break a 13C 700mb cap from an EML. SPC SREF post-processed guidance is putting a nice 40% severe area right near the MA/CT/RI border. Good call the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Thanks for the pic forky and good luck today ... looks like the cloud area just missed you to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Interesting HM and I really would not know. You're going to have to help me here as the summer-time is not my forte with long-range/pattern recognition. For a while there (within the past couple weeks), we were in a pattern (or at least one was being predicted by the models that may have not fully materialized) where I thought it looked El Nino-like..it featured the warmest anomalies/ridges rolling northward into Canada, and the return easterly flow underneath was leading to cooler/wetter anomalies across the south and into Texas...am I right to connect that to an el-nino tendency in the summer-time? with that said, such a pattern did not look favorable at all for increased wind shear/wind max's rolling through eastern North America. Edit: It was in the time frame following the EML/derecho setup. I think for the most part, El Nino has not had much of an effect yet on our pattern and the residual La Nina-tendency has dominated. The entire EURO-Asian-N PAC sector is behaving more like a -PDO / La Nina and therefore the pattern over N. America is too. El Nino tends to produce higher heights over Alaska and a downstream trough over the western portion of the USA in July, possibly setting the stage climatically for a possible EML advection. It is the only month in the warm season where an El Nino-tendency is probably more attributable to a possible EML advection per jet / advection processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 looks like the cloud area just missed you to the NE What's new. This year, everything has just missed me to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Are these ACCAS? Just snapped a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Some of us are seeing full cloud decks from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 shear/cape juxtaposition is actually a bit better than I thought. 40 kt of deep layer shear and 2000 MLCAPE showing up in western MA already. There is still a weak EML present over SNE. It is more apparent in the OKX sounding than CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 shear/cape juxtaposition is actually a bit better than I thought. 40 kt of deep layer shear and 2000 MLCAPE showing up in western MA already. There is still a weak EML present over SNE. It is more apparent in the OKX sounding than CHH. I agree that right now things are pretty awesome over New England / E NY and the only thing hurting is the time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 ACCAS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 more action monday? i like the look of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 looks more like standard Alto Cu to me...but it's apparent on the satellite pic that there is a bit of development on the cloud from elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I think for the most part, El Nino has not had much of an effect yet on our pattern and the residual La Nina-tendency has dominated. The entire EURO-Asian-N PAC sector is behaving more like a -PDO / La Nina and therefore the pattern over N. America is too. El Nino tends to produce higher heights over Alaska and a downstream trough over the western portion of the USA in July, possibly setting the stage climatically for a possible EML advection. It is the only month in the warm season where an El Nino-tendency is probably more attributable to a possible EML advection per jet / advection processes. Yeah the gist of what I was getting at is, why would more of an El-nino tendency lead to a potentially better wind/eml setup in the current timeframe (which you did a great job of answering).. Without question the residual la nina tendency has dominated the majority of the north american pattern, with the strong -pdo cool pool leading the way. Closer to the Tropics have looked more el nino-like though (makes sense with the 1-2 warm pool), perhaps shown in the wetter south/Texas (which we did not see of course in the past 2 la nina summers) and the over all tropical atlantic behavior early on this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 similar CAPE/shear parameters to what we saw yesterday over WNY. However, it looks like the lift is better in SNE today and you won't have to break a 13C 700mb cap from an EML. SPC SREF post-processed guidance is putting a nice 40% severe area right near the MA/CT/RI border. rev kev's house should get all lit up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This moved through and covered the sky, very odd low level bank This is the exact cloud formation I have to my NW... just noticed what appears to be Virga as well developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This is the exact cloud formation I have to my NW... just noticed what appears to be Virga as well developing. yea I had to post it as scooter wondered why it was cloudy here, sun fully blocked again back in the soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Yeah the gist of what I was getting at is, why would more of an El-nino tendency lead to a potentially better wind/eml setup in the current timeframe (which you did a great job of answering).. Without question the residual la nina tendency has dominated the majority of the north american pattern, with the strong -pdo cool pool leading the way. Closer to the Tropics have looked more el nino-like though (makes sense with the 1-2 warm pool), perhaps shown in the wetter south/Texas (which we did not see of course in the past 2 la nina summers) and the over all tropical atlantic behavior early on this season The feedback process is no doubt beginning to have an effect over portions of the Subtropics; but, the majority of the NH is still in La Nina mode. Part of the reason I made this forecast: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35289-northeast-severeconvectivethunder-thread-v/page__st__840__p__1634004#entry1634004 was because I anticipated a brief +daam/dt period and the models were hinting at that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The feedback process is no doubt beginning to have an effect over portions of the Subtropics; but, the majority of the NH is still in La Nina mode. Part of the reason I made this forecast: http://www.americanw...04#entry1634004 was because I anticipated a brief +daam/dt period and the models were hinting at that possibility. FNL GWO Numbers: 348 2012 6 29 -1.78 -0.30 10 2.5 1.8 349 2012 6 30 -1.88 -0.59 10 2.5 2.0 350 2012 7 1 -1.89 0.17 10 2.5 1.9 351 2012 7 2 -1.85 0.50 10 2.5 1.9 352 2012 7 3 -1.78 0.46 10 2.5 1.8 353 2012 7 4 -1.74 -0.08 10 2.5 1.7 354 2012 7 5 -1.78 0.14 10 2.5 1.8 355 2012 7 6 -1.68 1.31 15 3.5 2.1 356 2012 7 7 -1.44 2.44 15 3.5 2.8 357 2012 7 8 -1.09 2.42 15 3.5 2.7 358 2012 7 9 -0.86 1.28 15 3.5 1.5 359 2012 7 10 -0.75 0.83 15 3.5 1.1 360 2012 7 11 -0.68 -0.71 5 1.5 1.0 361 2012 7 12 -0.90 -1.63 5 1.5 1.9 362 2012 7 13 -1.01 0.06 10 2.5 1.0 363 2012 7 14 -0.91 1.07 15 3.5 1.4 364 2012 7 15 -0.78 0.63 15 3.5 1.0 365 2012 7 16 -0.74 0.28 10 2.5 0.8 366 2012 7 17 -0.63 1.93 20 4.5 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 83/71 winds have veered west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 If it completely misses it would be understandable given that the front is almost right on top of us already… If it slips south in the next 2 hours, we watch the back sides of CBs painfully slip away. I used see this all the time in the late 1980s – we were in summers that kept having noon frontal passages, CBs would fire S and you watch with envious jealous eyes as though the whole thing was a tortured set up. I just get bitter when I recognize this sort of scenario being set up… We’ll see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Still west wind here, but Logan with a light seabreeze. Might fire a storm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 high dews today. 70degree dews up into SNH as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The feedback process is no doubt beginning to have an effect over portions of the Subtropics; but, the majority of the NH is still in La Nina mode. Part of the reason I made this forecast: http://www.americanw...04#entry1634004 was because I anticipated a brief +daam/dt period and the models were hinting at that possibility. It was a great call back then nonetheless, since here we are with another burst of heat that was not clearly on the data back when you posted in early July. The euro ensembles continue to show tendency for troughing in the east in the day 11-15 (this has been going on for like a month straight), and while this hasn't exactly failed at times(we have seen a couple days back towards seasonable with troughs swinging through) the timing has been a real bihotch to nail down, and the warm surges in between have been getting picked up closer to the 6-10 day range...This has lead to difficulties on my part in the 7-14 day forecast period. I've kept it +1 to +3 on average for the MA/NE in that range, but it seems as we get closer there's always a day or 2 all of a sudden that pops in at 95-100 with heat advecting in from the drought regions to make these anomalies verify warmer (especially in the mid-atl)...It appears this is going on again with next week, as late week now looks like there will be another hot surge in the mid-upper 90s...Then the euro ensembles show another trough right through the 11-15 (fool me 8 times, shame on...... ) Looks to me like a pretty persistent pattern is the way to go heading into August. I'm trying to figure out at what point in August /this summer do things change up a bit and we stop seeing these heat surges reaching the East Coast. Sorry for the non-thunderstorm related rant lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Actually, I mused late last night just how perfectly bad that timing was… It was too early to involved yesterday evening “that far” SE of the forcing, and too late [probably] the next day ...speaking in terms of my region of SNE. Seems things are setting up to make sure that is all the case at least excuse imaginable. Who knows – maybe the slow movement of the boundary and associated convergence can pay off. I just need the rain desperately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA/NJ TO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 181425Z - 181630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR MUCH OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND BY 15Z-16Z. DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM LAKE ERIE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STEADILY WARMING AMID RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F. INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA AS OF 14Z. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL AIDE OF NEAR-COASTAL/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUCH AS BUF/ALB/OKX...MUCH OF THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT /30-50 KT 3-6 KM/ AND COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/. WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LIKELIHOOD OF 2000-3500 J/KG SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS...AND THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES/SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Actually, I mused late last night just how perfectly bad that timing was… It was too early to involved yesterday evening “that far” SE of the forcing, and too late [probably] the next day ...speaking in terms of my region of SNE. Seems things are setting up to make sure that is all the case at least excuse imaginable. Who knows – maybe the slow movement of the boundary and associated convergence can pay off. I just need the rain desperately. would think an area that may get screwed maybe the portsmouth to nashua to the money pit mike area. looks like you stil have a couple hour in ayer,mass proll till at least 1pm (of sun) to fire something. temps/dews are just starting to bake in sne ....20c air from bos pike southward with some 21c plus air in se mass. 19 c from portsmouth to haverhill to fitchburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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