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Summer update III: SNE region's 4 primary climo sites all remain solidly above normal as of the closing of July 14.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I wonder if the heat being aided by the dry soils to our west would be this intense if we had average soil moisture across the source region. We have done a lot of dry adiabatic mixing to high levels lately with heights that normally would not support these temps.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

LOL..oh ok...I looked quick on my phone and thought it was the mean

d11-15 is still advertising a trough too, but it'll probably be more of the same that we've been seeing. A few days of near seasonable highs and sun with dry air and cooler nights followed by a couple of days with increasing humidity and temps 90+ in the hot spots...then rinse and repeat. Hopefully we can at least get some decent rains with the fronts preceding the cool downs because there doesn't appear to be a prolonged synoptic rainer in the cards for awhile up here. I just dug up the pipes to the septic that's getting pumped tomorrow and the 10" of soil above it is bone dry. My soil moisture sensor is at its peak dryness reading of 200cb.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

d11-15 is still advertising a trough too, but it'll probably be more of the same that we've been seeing. A few days of near seasonable highs with sun with dry air and cooler nights followed by a couple of days with increasing humidity and temps 90+ in the hot spots...then rinse and repeat. Hopefully we can at least get some decent rains with the fronts preceding the cool downs because there doesn't appear to be a prolonged synoptic rainer in the cards for awhile up here. I just dug up the pipes to the septic that's getting pumped tomorrow and the 10" of soil above it is bone dry. My soil moisture sensor it at its peak dryness reading of 200cb.

And you have had some storms that we haven't had down here too.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It will not hit 100 or above in BOS tomorrow, do you think?

I'm having a hard time buying 100 that the NWS and media are touting. I can see 96-98 stuff I suppose. But, maybe there will be no cirrus and the dry ground becomes more of a factor. I'm gonna say that 100 will not be hit at BOS. I even looked back at the 850 temps from CHH on July 21-22 last year. The temps at 850 went from 18.6 to 23.6 during the day and BOS high was 97. It is possible mixing will be enough to perhaps add another degree or so tomorrow.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well, it could be 97 at Winthrop and 100 in Belmont or something?

Nasty stuff. My son is camping on the slopes of Monadnock and will be cooking there. Yuck

Nah, the winds would support warmest wx right to the beaches. Only slight chance there may be a weak seabreeze, but nothing more than a flap of a flag on the water. 98 or 100 means nothing to the body, but to me..it matters. Lately BOX has been warm in places over the interior. It will be interesting, because I see the methods being thrown around to justify the thinking..I'm just wondering if it really matters.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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Nah, the winds would support warmest wx right to the beaches. Only slight chance there may be a weak seabreeze, but nothing more than a flap of a flag on the water. 98 or 100 means nothing to the body, but to me..it matters. Lately BOX has been warm in places over the interior. It will be interesting, because I see the methods being thrown around to justify the thinking..I'm just wondering if it really matters.

100 is a magic number.

How are places like Lawrence, and ASH going to do? One of them might peg 100

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

I'm having a hard time buying 100 that the NWS and media are touting. I can see 96-98 stuff I suppose. But, maybe there will be no cirrus and the dry ground becomes more of a factor. I'm gonna say that 100 will not be hit at BOS. I even looked back at the 850 temps from CHH on July 21-22 last year. The temps at 850 went from 18.6 to 23.6 during the day and BOS high was 97. It is possible mixing will be enough to perhaps add another degree or so tomorrow.

thanks for the quick response. I agree, BOS 98 or so seems reasonable. 100 is not impossible, but less likely. lol

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I'm having a hard time buying 100 that the NWS and media are touting. I can see 96-98 stuff I suppose. But, maybe there will be no cirrus and the dry ground becomes more of a factor. I'm gonna say that 100 will not be hit at BOS. I even looked back at the 850 temps from CHH on July 21-22 last year. The temps at 850 went from 18.6 to 23.6 during the day and BOS high was 97. It is possible mixing will be enough to perhaps add another degree or so tomorrow.

Do you mean 7/21? BOS had 103F on 7/22. Looks like the Euro peaks 850s at BOS around 20C. If everything goes right with west flow and full sun it could maybe get close if you lump a 17C on that number to get around that 37C mark. I think I'd lean more toward the lower MAV number of 93F vs the MET 99F that has failed all summer.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Do you mean 7/21? BOS had 103F on 7/22. Looks like the Euro peaks 850s at BOS around 20C. If everything goes right with west flow and full sun it could maybe get close if you lump a 17C on that number to get around that 37C mark. I think I'd lean more toward the lower MAV number of 93F vs the MET 99F that has failed all summer.

Yeah the 21st had a high of 97. The 22nd already had 850 temps of 22.8 at 12z.

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