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Summer update III: SNE region's 4 primary climo sites all remain solidly above normal as of the closing of July 14.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The breeze on the lake was strong, the water very warm but the kayaking was great. Last day of vacation but a great one.

bbfdd574.jpg

Steve--that has to be the longest vacatin anyone outside of France has ever taken--congrats!

I would still need A/C with that.

Scott--that's a really wimpy attitude. :)

Got to 70.2 last night, used my fan.

Managed to pick up .05" of rain overnight. Nice surprise.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

The hazy sun just lifted over the trees here. 72 at sunrise and very muggy yet. Looking at obs, the front might be barely through.

One t storm last night...haven't checked rain gauge, but best guess in .25 to .50 range.

Here's a yucky start to the day. My call for KPIT is I'll top at 82.9 today, about 8.5* less than yesterday.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The hazy sun just lifted over the trees here. 72 at sunrise and very muggy yet. Looking at obs, the front might be barely through.

One t storm last night...haven't checked rain gauge, but best guess in .25 to .50 range.

Agree on the front. I envy you the .25--hopefully I can get something similar as things develop today.

72.4/68

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It's amazing how Thurs-Sat has turned into exactly what we had earlier this week

ONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH

PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BL MIXING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE

TROUBLE REACHING H85 OR HIGHER...SO SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN

THE MID TO EVEN ISOLD UPPER 80S.

Upper 80s maybe tomorrow on the BDL tarmac, but not many areas see more than 86 during this time including you,ORH and points east. Saturday and maybe Friday are in the upper 70s here. Perfect. I'll be up north for this.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Upper 80s maybe tomorrow on the BDL tarmac, but not many areas see more than 86 during this time including you,ORH and points east. Saturday and maybe Friday are in the upper 70s here. Perfect. I'll be up north for this.

low-mid 80's for everyone Thurs-Sat seems correct. no upper 80's.

Not cool, very warm..but def . less hot than the last 3

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

low-mid 80's for everyone Thurs-Sat seems correct. no upper 80's.

Not cool, very warm..but def . less hot than the last 3

It's 80s or so inland with cool nights I would imagine. In fact Friday could have clouds and areas in CT struggle for 80. Sunday could be upper 80s at BDL, but BDL is not representative of SNE in this pattern. Same with Scooby Doo.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

It's amazing how Thurs-Sat has turned into exactly what we had earlier this week

ONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH

PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BL MIXING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE

TROUBLE REACHING H85 OR HIGHER...SO SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN

THE MID TO EVEN ISOLD UPPER 80S.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night And Saturday: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.

Looks like a sneaky shot at 90 on Sunday and especially Monday ahead of the next front with humidity returning those 2 days

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.

Monday And Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s

:huh:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night And Saturday: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.

Monday And Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s

:huh:

I knew you were gonna do that.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Not good folks..not good..dry dry dry, warm, warm, warm

August 2012 Forecast:

The hot and dry summer of 2012 will go on.

Key Assumptions:

• A weak El Niño event will be underway in August

• The AO will likely be somewhat positive

• The PNA will likely be somewhat negative

The top analog was 2006.

The charts on which my August idea is based are:

Top Left: Analogs for August 2012

Top Right: Analogs (Temperature and Drought) for August 2012

Bottom Left: CFSv2 Forecast for August

Bottom Right: Observed decadal temperature trend

August2012Temperatures.jpg

Although the GFS ensembles have hinted that the Arctic region could grow slightly cooler than normal toward the end of July, the GFS ensembles have recently been somewhat too cool there. The assumption is that the Arctic region will likely be somewhat warmer than normal. Hence, the source region of potential cool air masses will have less cool air than usual available.

At the same time, on account of the increasingly widespread drought, the Southwestern and Plains States will remain unusually dry. This means more of the sun's energy will be devoted to direct heating relative to evaporation of soil moisture. As a result, hot air masses that come eastward will be warmer than usual.

To date, Summer 2012 has been exceptionally hot in the Northern Hemisphere. As per the latest NCDC data, the Northern Hemisphere's land area had a June temperature anomaly that ranked highest on record (2.42 sigma above the 1981-2010 climate baseline). The combination of less cool air than usual in the Arctic, drought across a significant portion of the U.S., and general exceptional warmth in the Northern Hemisphere all suggest that odds favor a warmer than usual outcome than is typical for the onset of an El Niño.

As a result, my thoughts are as follows:

- Alaska will be mainly cooler than normal

- The West Coast of the U.S. perhaps into British Columbia will be somewhat cooler than normal

- The remainder of North America will be warmer than normal. An area running from the Southern and Central Plains into the Great Lakes region (U.S. and southern Ontario) could be much warmer than normal. Another area in northern Canada could also be much warmer than normal.

The ongoing drought has increased in expanse and severity in recent weeks. The July 10, 2012 Drought Monitor reported that 60.84% of the U.S. was experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions and 11.61% was experiencing extreme or worse drought conditions. As a result, it makes sense to discuss precipitation outlooks.

2012 saw the 10th driest June on record in the contiguous U.S. 19 of the 30 driest cases in June were also among the 50 driest cases in July. July 2012 appears well on course for that outcome. 11 of 19 or 58% of those dry July cases were also among the 50 driest cases in August.

From that pool of cases, I selected the years that showed up most persistently as summer analogs. Two stood out: 1953 and 2002. 2002 was the top analog for July.

The charts below are:

Left: Drought Analogs

Right: CFSv2 Precipitation Forecast for August

August2012Precipitation.jpg

My thoughts are as follows:

- The Central and Southern Plains will remain drier than normal in August

- Dry anomalies will likely expand across the Ohio Valley into New England

- The Gulf Coast and Southeast could experience near normal precipitation

- With the exception of the Southwest, which should have near normal preciptitation, the rest of the western third of the U.S. could be wetter than normal

Finally, some historical photos from the Dust Bowl are below:

DustBowlScenes.jpg

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I mentioned that yesterday Kev. Even September may be above normal. Until we see more Nino behavior, I don't see a below normal month here. It's possible the onset starts in a month or so in which cooler wx may move in, but I don't see a reason to differ right now.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I mentioned that yesterday Kev. Even September may be above normal. Until we see more Nino behavior, I don't see a below normal month here. It's possible the onset starts in a month or so in which cooler wx may move in, but I don't see a reason to differ right now.

I'm more concerned about the worsening drought for us

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Don has dry anomolies/drought expanding into New England

It's rare to have a very dry August. It can be below normal, but we always get these tropical rains it seems. Plus, the pattern going forward seems to want to bring some rains. That map Don posted looks dry off to the west...not necessarily here.

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