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The 2012/13 Ski Season Thread

ski MRG

By ski MRG,
in New England

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

I've been thinking about skiing a lot while hiking. Totally pumped for next season. Recently paid my PSIA dues.. ugh. I could not stomach those unlike MRG unless I had to.

I sent an email to Alta recently inquiring about working as a ski instructor there. I'll be making some more inquiries at some other mountains when I get the chance in trail towns and after I finish the AT. Definitely interested in Jackson. Also Telluride and Big Sky. I'd like to get hired over the phone if possible because I'm not sure if I want to drive out there for interviews. I might make a road trip out of it though. But if it doesn't work out I'm very happy to return to another season of fantastic skiing at Saddleback.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I recall quite a walloping too up in the Green and White mountains in late October 2005. We actually ended as a few hours of light snow in that system. I believe it was infused with moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Wilma.

October 2005 was epic in NNE for snow in the mountains... Mount Washington set it's all-time October snow record with 72" that month and wettest month ever with over 26" QPF.

Here's an excerpt from the Avalanche Advisory issued for MWN towards the end of that month:

9:21 a.m., Wednesday, October 26, 2005

The summit just broke some significant records over the

past 24 hours. First they have broken the snowiest October on record with

72.2" (183cm) and even more impressive then that they surpassed their

wettest month ever with 26.79" (68cm)of water. This beat the great

Feburuay of 1969, a winter of legend. I have never seen October storms

make such an impact on the mountain. I always look forward to snow, but it

could be a very long season.

The 27.5 inches (70cm) of new snow on the summit fell over the past 30

hours and came in with a high moisture content melting down to 4.43 inches

(11.25cm). This creates a high density average of 16% snow. As this slow

moving Nor'easter moves up into the Maritimes today wrap around moisture

will continue the winter storm warning for the mountains. Snow is expected

to continue and turn upslope later and become more sporadic. Several more

inches should be expected. Eventually later today winds will shift from

the current NNE to the NW. When the shift begins it should proceed fairly

rapidly as the nearby Low moves off to the NE. The GFS model has been

fairly true and predicts this shift to occur early this afternoon around

1pm. The wind velocity which subsided overnight and have begun to pick up

again. They are anticipated to be pushing 75mph (120kph) late in the day

and should make things very interesting. Although winds topped out at over

100mph (160kph) from the ENE late last night there is an enormous amount

of snow left above treeline that will load directly into the easterly

aspects of both Ravines. Anticipate loading of southern aspects through

the first half of the day with NE to N winds and then the larger easterly

facing slopes loading when the winds move from the NW.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I recall quite a walloping too up in the Green and White mountains in late October 2005. We actually ended as a few hours of light snow in that system. I believe it was infused with moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Wilma.

And here are some BTV AFD's leading up to the Wilma/Nor'easter event... this was massive for the Greens with the upslope component on the backside (as is usually the case, its the wrap-around upslope that really takes these storms to the next level):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

435 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

UNSETTLED WX THRU THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN

EVENT TUE INTO WED.

SITUATION BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED MON NITE INTO TUESDAY AS CUTOFF

UPPER LOW MOVES INTO OHIO VLY ALLOWING FOR FLOW TO BACK ALG EAST

CST. MEANWHILE...WILMA BE ENTERING THE PICTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON

HOW WILMA BECOMES INTEGRATED INTO THE EAST COAST TROF...BUT THEY

ALL WIND UP WITH A SIMILAR OUTCOME...WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF

WHAT RMNS OF WILMA BCMNG ABSORBED BY UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING

IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT FOR OUR FA TUE INTO WED. PTYPE WILL BE A

MAJOR CONCERN...AS TEMP PROFILES INDICATED BY ALL MODELS ARE

MARGINAL FOR RAIN/SNOW. ALL MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF IMPRESSIVE

OMEGA ALLOWING FOR DYNAMIC COOLING TO COME INTO PLAY. TRACK OF

CLOSED H7 LOW JUST SOUTH OF FA FAVORABLE FOR SGNFCNT PCPN EVENT.

EXPECT A SIGNIFICNAT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MTNS...WITH RAIN PSBLY

CHANGING TO SNOW EVEN IN THE VLYS TUE NITE. UPSLOPE PCPN CONTINUES

WED INTO WED NITE WITH ADDED MTN SNOWS. SPECIAL WX STATEMENT HAS

BEEN ISSUED TO BRING AWARENESS TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

425 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEEMENT REGARDING THE

COMPLEX WX SYSTEM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY

THRU WED. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO

GULF OF MAINE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY UP INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES

WED/WED NITE. SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TONITE AND TAPER OFF

RO SNOW/RAIN SHWRS DURING DAY ON WED.

WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR ALL OF HIR

TRRN ZONES IN VERMONT...AND RMN IN EFFECT FOR ADRNDKS. WINTER WX

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CHMPLN VLY AND SC VT. FLOOD

WATCHES RMN IN EFFECT FOR SC VT AND NORTHEAST NY.

TEMP PROFILES RMN VERY MARGINAL FOR SNOW OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACRS HIR ELEVATIONS (GENERALLY ABOVE ABOUT

1500 FEET)...AND IT HAS MIXED WITH OR CHANGED TO SNOW AT TIMES IN

SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING HEAVIER BURSTS

OF PCPN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT 1000-850 THICKNESSESS WILL

LOWER JUST ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN

MOST AREAS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ALL SNOW IN THE VLYS WILL BE

DURING HVY PCPN PERIODS DUE DYNAMIC COOLING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY

AS TO WHERE MOST PERSISTENT MESOBANDED PCPN WILL SET UP. LATEST

GUIDANCE AND CURRENT RADAR/STLT INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE ACRS NE NY

AND NW VT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONITE THRU WED AM WILL BE HIGHLY

DEPENDENT ON ELEVATIONS. EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES ACRS THE HIR TRRN

ZONES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIR TOTALS. ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 6

INCHES EXPECTED IN THE VLYS.

RIVERS HAVE BEEN RISING QUICKLY DURING TDY IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALG ERN SLOPES

OF ADRNDKS AND IN SC VT. AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THIS EVENING...THE

THREAT OF FLOODING MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST

NEW YORK.

STEADY PCPN WILL TAPER TO SNOW/RAIN SHWRS DURING WEDNESDAY. PCPN

WILL BE MORE RELATED TO OROGRAPHY BY LATE MORNING. ANY SNOW

ACCUMULATION AFTER THIS TIME WILL BE CONFINED TO HIR TRRN...AND

SPECIFICALLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

931 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO

ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SNOWING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEY SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY MET WINTER STORM WARNING

CRITERIA AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN

THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS. SO NO CHANGES TO THESE HEADLINES.

CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW CONTRIBUTING TO

DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. FLOOD WATCH

STILL IN PLACE AND FLOOD WARNING FOR THE OTTER CREEK ON TRACK WITH

FLOOD STAGE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY

TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH

PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO CHANGES MADE TO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS

OR ANY OF THE LATER PERIODS IN THE FORECAST.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

531 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ALL ATTENTION IS STILL ON THE DESTRUCTIVE EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM

WHICH HAS SNAPPED TREES AND PRODUCED WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE

IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE VLY HAS BEEN SPARED SNOWFALL AND EVEN THE WRN

ADIRONDACKS WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST TO RECEIVE THE COOLING AND

HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW THAT

TRACKED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT. SNOW DEPTHS ARE GREATEST IN

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE

NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...BUT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE BASED ON EVEN

SUBTLE CHANGES OF ELEVATION...AVERAGING LESS THAN 2 INCHES BELOW 400

FEET...3 TO 10 INCHES AT 400 TO 1200 FEET...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES

ABOVE 1200 FEET.

EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING AWAY RAPIDLY INTO

THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE SLOWER-MOVING UPR AIR CRCLN AND

ABUNDANT MSTR WRAPPING SSEWRD FROM QUEBEC INTO A GENERAL OROGRAPHIC

UPSLOPE MEANS SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO END...WITH NWRN SLOPES OF GREEN

MTNS...AS USUAL...BEING THE LAST PLACE IN NEW ENGLAND FOR SNOW TO

END FOLLOWING A WELL-DEVELOPED SYNOPTIC STORM. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER

STORM WARNINGS THROUGH NOON AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4

INCHES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO EARLIER FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND BEYOND.

A S/WV DROPPING SWRD FROM ONTARIO IS NOW FCST TO DVLP INTO A NEARLY

CLSD UPR LOW ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH SFC PRESSURE AND LIMITED MSTR SUGGESTS LOW POPS TNGT THRU

FRIDAY...BUT SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH PARTLY TO

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

This was the WINTER STORM WARNING that was issued for this event... including the Stowe area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

226 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF

THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS BY

THIS EVENING ...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST

AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL

CONTINUE TO SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM SPOTTERS AND COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE

SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN

MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW

YORK. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET...WITH A MIX

OF RAIN AND SNOW FALLING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET. OBSERVERS

INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN ABOVE 2000 FEET

IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE GREEN AND ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...WITH

ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BELOW 1500 FEET.

THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES

COLDER AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE

OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS INCLUDES MANY OF THE CITIES ACROSS THE

CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES

BELOW ONE MILE...CAUSING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THIS HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF

20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CAUSE DOWNED TREE

LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

PERSONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...SHOULD TAKE THE

NECESSARY ACTION AND PREPARE FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER

EVENT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ANY MEDIA OUTLET...

THAT PROVIDES YOU WITH THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE...WHICH ARE SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO KEEP YOU

INFORMED DURING SUCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS.

VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-260400-

/X.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0001.051025T2000Z-051026T1600Z/

/X.EXB.KBTV.WS.W.0001.051025T1900Z-051026T1600Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...

UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

226 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.

ANY RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL QUICKLY

TURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES

THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES

WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Here are some emails I still have from someone who lived in Stowe at the time...it appears this was a fairly significant snow event for Northern VT if she mentions a foot of snow still on the ground with trees down everywhere (I didn't live in Stowe at this time, October 2005). This storm may not have been all that different from the SNE October event last year:

Happened to be in Montpelier this afternoon - rain/snow mix. Waterbury

snow/rain mix, Waterbury Center, snow starting to stick.

We kept checking outside temp and it slowly dropped below freezing.

Stowe, all snow a bit wet consistency. Up hill to house, snow snow

snow, accumulating mightily. Big flakes and northeast winds. Not the

driest snow, but not a mix and not slush either.

This one could be a biggie if it keeps coming down like it has been.

For sure it was never rain up on Mansfield. Yesterday even after the

melt out from Snowtime1, the upper half of Mansfield sported very white

trails (nothing half way down).

A bit of a power glitch knocked computer off a while ago... Well, no

surprize there. We have quite a few bending birches and other small

trees and one that is across the entry driveway to our little

neighborhood. Several bent across town road were cut this morning by

town crews.

*******************************************************

Looks like 15 inches of snow on the table now. The deck table snow

meter ruler has disappeared entirely. The snowfall became very fine

last night and ---continues to fall--- in that fine state. No further

power outages, but several power winks,

The scene outside makes me think of Dr. Zhivago because of the spooky

way the trees look with their branches bending downwards with so much

snow stuck to them. Clumps of remaining yellow leaves hang like grape

bunches. The evergreens look menacing.

Temperature stayed at 31 and remains so. Winds have died down. While

I've certainly seen my share of snow up here, I've never seen it look

so strange outside before, the way the snow is stuck to the trees.

I would guess it's going to take some pitch to ski this much snow and

will not be easy powder turns.

Have fun out there in that winter wonderland and be careful driving to

the mountain of your choice.

It is only October 26th and here we are - winter has arrived in spades.

*******************************************************

Yes, it kept snowing, but this time only at upper elevations. The

Worcesters are VERY white today. Yesterday they were somewhat white..

The clouds have lifted enough to see the mountains and they are WHITE

as mid-winter. An amazing sight for this date. They are even whiter

than some winter days.

We did have some light precip this morning at house (not snow) but it

didn't dent the cover much. The trees have shed their snow and it

doesn't have the "Dr. Zhivago" look any more. Alot of trees/branches down everywhere in our area.

We still have just under a foot of snow at the house.

*******************************************************

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Sorry for all the posts, but Will brought up October 2005 and that was an awesome month for snow... and if you are like me, I love reading through past archives of storms be it AFD's or other observations. Here are some Mansfield Co-Op numbers from October 25-26, 2005 when Wilma got involved.

544 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
STATION		    PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 1.10    31  25  25			    10.0  11  


602 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
STATION		    PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
MOUNT MANSFIELD	 1.69    26  21  26			   13.0  21

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Lets go for 5 posts in a row.... here's one last AFD I dug up at the end of that event. As always, upslope snow sticks around longer than forecast in these big storms with upper level lows slow to move, so the storms transfer from a synoptic event to an upslope event that continues long after snow has shut off elsewhere:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

700 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

UPSLOPE EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND

SIGNALS INDICATE THE EVENT MAY GO WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONCERNED

WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW NOT WEAKENING UNTIL 12Z AND WITH

AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW 5000 FEET...SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS

NORTHWEST VERMONT TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.

BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL OMEGA CONTINUES QUITE PROMINENTLY

THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND THEN WEAKENS TOWARD 12Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE

RATES ARE DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS

PRECIPITATION WILL BE UPSLOPE IN NATURE AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD

ACROSS NORTHWEST VERMONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF

RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 800 FEET. WILL MENTION

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH

CATEGORICAL LIGHT RAIN IN THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOOKING

AT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN

PORTIONS OF LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. REST OF THE FORECAST

IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

From 2000- 7" at the top reported. Given that it was opening day and there was a couple inches laid down from the guns it meshes with my hazy memories of boot deep pow.

Traces recorded all the way to HPN and supposedly Sugarloaf wound up with 18-24" as the system pulled away. UVM listservs FTW

633 PM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

STATION PCPN WEATHER MAX MIN CUR NEW TTL LIQ

MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.46 17 12 14 7.0 7

FXUS61 KBTV 290900

AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

400 AM EST SAT OCT 29 2000

WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TODAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY

TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OF 4-8 IN. GREENS AND NC/NE, 3-5 ADIRONDACKS, 2-4

CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STILL LOOK OK, BUT CONCERNED ABOUT MODEL DEPICTION OF

WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OCCLUDES LATER TODAY. NGM

MOS POPS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN NEW AVN GUIDANCE.

A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH OCCASIONAL

SNOW LATER THIS MORNING AS SAT SHOWS ENHANCE CLD TOPS MOVING SW FROM

E CANADA AND ME. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL DEPICTION OF

ISENTROPIC LIFT(295K) , CONVERGENCE OF Q, AND 700/500 WAA AS THE MAIN

FORCING FOR LIFT. ALSO NICE PLUME OF PRECIP WATERS > .50 INCHES

ASSOCIATED. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE TERRAIN ON NORTH SLOPES,

BUT NOT A GREAT WIND DIRECTION FOR LIFT IN THE GREENS, MAYBE A BIT

BETTER WITH A NORTH WIND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.

CONFIDENCE LOW AFTER TODAY IN EXACTLY HOW THING PLAY OUT WITH SFC

AND UPPER LOW. IT STILL LOOKS TO ME THAT THE SYSTEM DOES ALL ITS

DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THEN STARTS DECAYING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES

SOUTHEST UNDER THE LOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF

SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT OR WAA BEGINNING TONIGHT DESPITE HIGHER

PWATER VALUES. AVN FURTHEST EAST WITH THE SYSTEM BUT DEEPENS A

SECOND LOW BY 60HRS BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO CAUSE OUR AREA

MUCH HARM.

EXTENDED SHOULD FEATURE SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER UNDER RIDGING

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...AS LONG AS IT MOVES AWAY.

SISSON

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

UVM listservs FTW

Yep! That's where I got the AFDs from.... I used to post several times a day to the Skivt-L listserve (and occasionally do still in the winter) and its where I met most of my skiing buddies. J.Spin also posted there back in college and its fun to go through and read all the old trip reports, weather discussions, AFDs, Mansfield summaries, etc. These archives go way back now and I first started posting in the 2000-2001 season but the list was already quite old by that point. Going through and reading stuff from March 2001 is epic... especially the AFD's leading up to the three big 20"+ snowstorms that fell that month (they are under the title Daily Vermont Weather):

http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A0=SKIVT-L

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Its awesome to go back and look at series of AFD's from certain events... like during March 5-6, 2001. Here are the AFD's during that event...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

334 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

SNOWING LIKE CRAZY OUTSIDE AND ITS GOING TO CONTINUE. IR LOOP OVER

PAST HALF HR SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING TOPS AND PLUME OF MSTR

EXTENDING ACRS ERN LONG ISLAND UP INTO CHAMPLAIN VLY. MORNING'S ETA

RUN YET AGAIN A LTL FURTHER N THAN LAST RUNS...AND SFC LO TAKES AN

IMPRESSIVE TURN TO THE WEST DURG DAY TUES AND LOOPS ARND AS IT GETS

CAPTURED BY MAIN UPR CLOSED LO. SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA AND AVN...

WTH AVN FURTHER E AFT 24 HRS AND A LITTLE LESS EAGER TO MOVE SFC

LOW TO W. WE'LL GET MOST SNOW TONIGHT...AND MDL DIFFERENCES WON'T

COME IN TO PLAY UNTIL TUESDAY.

MSTR AND HIGHEST QPF POINTED AT VT THROUGH PD...FIRST FROM SE AS LO

APPROACHES SRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN FM E AS LOW CRANKS AWAY S OF THE

CAPE. WL GET A GOOD 12 HRS OF STEADY SNOWS OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED SNOW A

LTL LATER IN DAY ON TUES WHILE SFC LOW MAKES ITS LOOP...THEN HEADS E

ON WED.

UPPED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. WE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS IN ADDISON

VT/ESSEX NY OF 7 INCHES ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED TOTALS UP ACCORDINGLY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

944 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

SAT LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW COLD CLOUD TOPS MOVG FROM NWWD FROM OFF

THE SRN NEW ENG CST TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. VAD WIND

PROFILE SHOWING SE WINDS IN THE HIGHER LEVELS WITH EAST WINDS IN THE

LOW LEVELS BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. DEEPENING

LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD ATTM. BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS...SOME AREAS

IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND SRN VT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FOOT OF

SNOW ALREADY. THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND MOST OF VT SHOULD SEE 10 TO

20 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES

BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CANADIAN BORDER AREAS...AND 6

TO 12 INCHES BY DAYBREAK IN THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. ALSO...GETTING

SOME REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS SRN VT ATTM. HAVE

BOOSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS THRU TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BASED

ON CURRENT SNOWFALL REPORTS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG ATTM...SO WILL

CUT BACK ON WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR CHGS TO MIN

TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTRW...NO CHGS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

330 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001

REMARKABLE STM CONTS TO ROTATE BANDS OF HVY SNW WWD ACRS VT/NE NY.

WV/IR LOOP SHWS DEEP MSTR AND COLD TOPS ROTATING WWD ACRS FA IN DEEP

ELY FLOW. KCXX VAD SHWS ELY FLOW UP TO 28K FT!

SFC LOW SE OF ACK FCST TO ROTATE WWD THIS AM BFR MVG SWD TAFTN TO

CATCH UP WITH UPR LOW. DEEP ELY FLOW WL CONT THRU ABT 18Z WHICH WL

KEEP OCNL HVY SNW GOING INTO ERLY AFTN THEN AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE NE

DIREC SNW WL LIGHTEN UP. GUSTY N/NE WIND WL RSLT IN CONSID

BLOWING/DRIFTG.

ETA/NGM IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH POSN OF LOW WHILE AVN FTHR E. DESPITE

FTHR E POSN...AVN QPF HIR THAN ETA. ETA HAS PERFORMED THE BEST FOR

THIS STM SO WL LN TWD ETA QPF WHICH SHWS 0.3-0.6" ACRS MCH OF FA AFT

06Z...LESS ST LAW VLY. GOING WITH 15:1 RATIO WUD YIELD AN ADDITL

5-9". HAV PRETTY MCH MAINTAINED PREV STORM TOTAL ACCUM BUT

REARRANGED ZNS A BIT. HAV INCLD N CHMPLN VLY WITH REST OF CVLY AND

CNTRL VT BASED ON ERLYR SNWFALL RPTS AND RDR TRENDS WHICH SHW HVY

SNW CONTG. AND LUMPED CALEDONIA CNTY WITH NE VT FOR LESSER ACCUM.

GNLY LOOKING AT 8-14" ST LAW VLY...1-2 FT ADRNDCKS...14-28" CHMPLN

VLY AND CNTRL VT...10-20" NE VT...AND 20-36" S VT. BTV AT 17.5" AS

OF 3 AM AND WL MAKE A RUN AT 2 FT WHICH WUD MAKE IT THE 3RD GREATEST

SNW STORM ON RECORD.

TOP 3 BTV SNW STORMS.....1. 29.8" DEC 25-28 1969

2. 24.7" JAN 13-14 1934

3. 22.4" MAR 13-14 1993

************************************************************************************

The amazing thing is that since 2001, BTV has had a bunch of larger snowfalls bumping those snows down the list of historic events. Valentines Day 2007, March 6-7, 2011, and January 1-3, 2010 were all bigger than the #2 spot in that AFD, lol. A good run of record snows during the 2000s.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

Its awesome to go back and look at series of AFD's from certain events... like during March 5-6, 2001. Here are the AFD's during that event...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

334 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

I was looking at that exact same thing :lol:

I liked this one: KCXX VAD SHWS ELY FLOW UP TO 28K FT

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
From 2000- 7" at the top reported. Given that it was opening day and there was a couple inches laid down from the guns it meshes with my hazy memories of boot deep pow.

Traces recorded all the way to HPN and supposedly Sugarloaf wound up with 18-24" as the system pulled away. UVM listservs FTW

633 PM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

STATION PCPN WEATHER MAX MIN CUR NEW TTL LIQ

MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.46 17 12 14 7.0 7

It’s funny, as soon as I came across these posts of you guys talking about the skiing in October 2000, I decided to check my 2000-2001 ski season archives to see what I made for turns. I was surprised to find that I apparently didn’t even go out for that snow at the end of the month, but I did get out for turns during another snowy period near the beginning of the month! Here are the data from the Mt. Mansfield Stake for October 2,000, and as you can see, there’s a nice period with snowpack from the 8th to the 13th before that next one began on the 29th:

10/2/2000 0

10/3/2000 0

10/4/2000 0

10/5/2000 0

10/6/2000 0

10/7/2000 0

10/8/2000 5

10/9/2000 6

10/10/2000 7

10/11/2000 11

10/12/2000 9

10/13/2000 5

10/14/2000 0

10/15/2000 0

10/16/2000 0

10/17/2000 0

10/18/2000 0

10/19/2000 0

10/20/2000 0

10/21/2000 0

10/22/2000 0

10/23/2000 0

10/24/2000 0

10/25/2000 0

10/26/2000 0

10/27/2000 0

10/28/2000 0

10/29/2000 7

10/30/2000 7

It’s fun to look back at my trip report for that outing – to think that I was still using snowshoes because I didn’t even have skins yet:

http://jandeproducti...e-vt-11oct2000/

I added a couple of my pictures from the day below – they’re just frames captured from my video camera as I recall, but boy has the quality of the digital images that we can take improved in that span of almost 12 years. That was a decent start to the season though, the stake did melt back out for a few days in early November, but after that it was off to the races, topping out at a healthy depth of 132” on March 28th, 2001.

11OCT00A.jpg

11OCT00B.jpg

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

While we're discussing the 10/25/05 Wilma event - here is the NARR loop of that event

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us1025j3.php

Totally awesome. You can see the subtropical depression getting fujiwara'd right into the large upper low. Injects a ton of moisture and boom goes the dynamite. I got reliable reports of 3-4 feet atop whiteface during that event.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

That October 2005 through mid-December 2005 period was a really fun stretch to track weather up here. Too bad it kind of turned to garbage after that.

Oct 2005 and Oct 2000 also led to two very different winters. That late Oct 2000 airmass was really impressive. I think we logged a high of 34F one of the days which is tied for the 2nd coldest max temp on record here in October.

1996 and 2002 had cold and snowy Novembers I recall...esp up north. Those winters went their different ways though after early December.

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