Deck Pic Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 My Summary/Paraphrasing - Great Presentation Wes Summary (My Paraphrasing) - For Big snow seasons, El Nino becomes less and less important as you go north - 500 MB NH anomaly for DC biggest seasonal snowfall years shows much more blocking and southern stream than Boston and NYC for their top 10 - +PNA for DC needed, not as much needed for BOS..which has big snow seasons with a -PNA and a ridge over the Aleutians - For all I-95 cities, the worst Snow seasons have a very +AO composite, so much more similar for BAD winters - need Tropical forcing near dateline versus over the Indian ocean for a tendency toward Blocking, but usually there in Ninos anyway - Midwest big snow years has massive dominant northern stream - for Big snow, especially near DC, need forcing near dateline versus Indonesia, for strong STJ and usually biases toward -NAO - FEB best for Southern stream in Mod/Strong Nino, backloaded winter...don't worry if NOV/DEC suck - Southern CA often wet with the stronger ninos, mudslides - weaker Ninos, less southern stream, even some ridging in deep south/FL, often Cold Anomaly in west that spreads toward the northeast - for DCA, region 3.4 anomaly, bullseye is 1.2 to 2.2, with an exception or 2 - Big statistical difference in Ninos for DC is median closer to the mean, 50-50 above versus below snow which is much better than usual - AO so important too, even though Nino and AO probably work in synchronicity - Crappier DCA nino years tend to have -PNA, suppressed southern stream and blocking over Baffin Island versus central/east based NAO...see 72-73 for the 1st 2 factors...another crappy year 91-92 had same thing...no cold air, +AO...97-98 another example...strong STJ but too warm...trough in west...everything sheared out when it comes across the south...often blocking over Europe - So +PNA, -AO, -NAO best combination - We need the cold air to be held in by high latitude blocking....need it for the big storms - AO probably more important for big snowstorms and winter than NAO which is smaller scale - very hard to tell where tropical forcing is most important since it usually sets up over the dateline in a Nino anyway - 1/27/98 example of easterly component, closed off too far north, couldnt hold sfc high in place, no 50-50 low/NF trough/Confluence, same as Randy infamous MLK storm - 2006-07..not enough southern stream, too strong PAC jet, nasty vortex over GOA - Big Boston snows, Ridge further east over Central Conus, need it further west for DCA - Sample Size so small, hard to say must be a certain way with a nino....just tendencies - Hard to forecast AO/NAO much in advance even though folks have their different methods, but some methods that MAY help - SSW's (more common in Nino, but misunderstood, Autumn snow cover, Westerlies, MJO, ATL SST's (tripole - chicken/egg), Solar Flux, Geomagnetic Field, 30mb zonal winds in November...but weak correlation with each on their own...Wes not a big fan of any on their own - SSW's misunderstood, especially last winter - Wes wants to roll the dice with strong Nino...97-98/72-73 not a foregone conclusion - Funny References to 53, Mitchnick, JI, CT blizz, Bethesda Boy - Easterly QBO/Solar Min plays a role...more tropical convection, earlier SSW's, lower GLAAM - Wes wants to see strong -AO in November - MJO much less impact in Nino than Nina because of default forcing in same place - Models break down strong AO patterns too early....much more stable patterns than models suggest...hard to dislodge and flip so very important in early season THE END, great presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Awesome! Thanks for this. More great presentations ahead and I wish the O's weren't playing so that I could be there. I hope everyone, especially the out-of-towners, have a great time in Bmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Wes gave a great talk. Winter could be very interesting this year...or so I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Awesome! Thanks for this. More great presentations ahead and I wish the O's weren't playing so that I could be there. I hope everyone, especially the out-of-towners, have a great time in Bmore. The heck with the Os they play 162 games. Great summary Matt. Well done and easy to understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Great summary matt thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 The heck with the Os they play 162 games. Great summary Matt. Well done and easy to understand I think you'd get a pretty good argument that over the past 15 years they've actually really played somewhat less than the mandated 162 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Super. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Matt, Good summary. I'd say I want to see the Ao be strongly negative 3 standard deviations or so early in the winter, December or even early Jan would also be good. About the stratospheric warming events. They do sometimes make a difference and can drive the pattern but you need the warming to propagate downward and to get that you want something called the EP flux to be pointed at the pole rather than the equator. It was nice seeing everyone at the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Great presentation yesterday, Wes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Thanks for the summary, Matt. This is def a thread to bookmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Thanks for the summary, zwyts. Sounds like a great presentation by Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Wes always kicks ass and fairly presents what key ingredients are needed for decent winters around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Thanks! I enjoy giving the talks though this one was harder to plan than normal. Too bad we couldn't talk more so I could find out more about your latest trolling events. ot just fishing but on the board too, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Thanks! I enjoy giving the talks though this one was harder to plan than normal. Too bad we couldn't talk more so I could find out more about your latest trolling events. ot just fishing but on the board too, lol. If your PPT slides are still on my laptop, can we have your consent to post them here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Sounds like it was a fabulous presentation. I was sorry I couldn't see it as usual this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 If your PPT slides are still on my laptop, can we have your consent to post them here? I was going to modify them and use some of them for CWG articles which might lead to copyright issues. Therefore, I'd like to hold off on posting all the slides from the presentation. I'll post some of the stuff I know I won't use in the NYC and New England Forums. Later this fall, once the CWG articles have been posted, them the slides can be posted, until then, it would be better if they were not posted. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I posted some of the slides pertaining to BOS in the New England thread for any interested. I'll do the same for NYC, Probably tomorrow. DCA will have to wait until I do my CWG gig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Cliffs: 2009-2010 coincided with the alignment of the planets Good info, Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I predict sadness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I predict sadness I predict aka hope for all snow to hold off until after mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I predict bannings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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