donsutherland1 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Monthly Summaries: June 2012: Message #1 Below July 2012: Message #39 August 2012: Message #42 September 2012: Message #44 October 2012: Message #49 November 2012: Message #56 June 2012 Summary: The GISS global land & sea anomaly for June 2012 is in. Globally, the temperature was +0.56°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. June 2012 was the 4th warmest June on record. Only 1998, 2009, and 2005 had a warmer June. Overall, June 2012 was +0.217°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. Most regions of the world, including Antarctica saw above normal readings for June. The first 6 months of 2012 had a temperature anomaly of +0.497°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. 2012 is now tied with 2004 for the 9th warmest year on record in the January-June timeframe. Overall, the January 1-June 30, 2012 timeframe had an anomaly of +0.377°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. June 2012 was also warmer than the 30-year moving average (1983-2012). That moving average was warmer than the current 1981-2010 baseline, indicating that global temperatures were continuing to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 This matches up nicely with UAH and RSS. Shouldn't 2010 also be warmer than 2012? Unless the 2009 is a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 This matches up nicely with UAH and RSS. Shouldn't 2010 also be warmer than 2012? Unless the 2009 is a typo. June 2010 had a +0.55°C anomaly, just below that of June 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 June 2010 had a +0.55°C anomaly, just below that of June 2012. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 This evening, JB tweeted (again) that the global temperature anomaly is below normal. As noted previously, I believe the maps he's using are incorrect, even as they use the 1981-2010 baseline. The January 1-June 30, 2012 GISS anomaly was above both the GISS's 1951-1980 baseline and the 1981-2010 baseline. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis maps also were consistent with the GISS idea. I expect that the NCDC temperature data that will be released later this week will also show a warm anomaly for 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 The January 1-June 30, 2012 GISS anomaly was above both the GISS's 1951-1980 baseline and the 1981-2010 baseline. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis maps also were consistent with the GISS idea. I expect that the NCDC temperature data that will be released later this week will also show a warm anomaly for 2012. When do the NCDC and HadCru temperature anomalies come out? Curious to see if they agree with GISS/UAH/RSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 When do the NCDC and HadCru temperature anomalies come out? Curious to see if they agree with GISS/UAH/RSS. I don't know when HadCrut comes out. I've seen the NCDC come out during the third week of the month, so I'm expecting that it will come out some time this week. So far, none of the data that is out shows 2012 with cold anomalies (even using the 1981-2010 baseline). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 HadCrut comes out the last few days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Thanks LEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 The NCDC numbers are in (thanks LEK for posting the June figure in the 2012 global temperatures thread). June 2012: +0.643°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: +0.244°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 4th warmest January-June 2012: +0.522°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: +0.101°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 11th warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 The NCDC numbers are in (thanks LEK for posting the June figure in the 2012 global temperatures thread). June 2012: +0.643°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: +0.244°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 4th warmest January-June 2012: +0.522°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: +0.101°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 11th warmest I think NCDC will finish around +0.575°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 This evening, JB tweeted (again) that the global temperature anomaly is below normal. As noted previously, I believe the maps he's using are incorrect, even as they use the 1981-2010 baseline. The January 1-June 30, 2012 GISS anomaly was above both the GISS's 1951-1980 baseline and the 1981-2010 baseline. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis maps also were consistent with the GISS idea. I expect that the NCDC temperature data that will be released later this week will also show a warm anomaly for 2012. Someone with a Twitter account should correct him. Where are the maps he is using coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 This evening, JB tweeted (again) that the global temperature anomaly is below normal. As noted previously, I believe the maps he's using are incorrect, even as they use the 1981-2010 baseline. Even if the maps were correct, his calling the global temp. anomaly below normal is a bit deceiving because it is only a tiny fraction below normal...i.e., really more like near normal. I think he may be continuing to treat the gray areas as neutral instead of warm. If they were actually near normal. then, yes, you'd have a solid below normal globe on that map. I'm leaning toward the current El Nino being weak, not moderate or strong. Assuming this will verify, global anom.'s may not warm much more this year. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Even if the maps were correct, his calling the global temp. anomaly below normal is a bit deceiving because it is only a tiny fraction below normal...i.e., really more like near normal. I think he may be continuing to treat the gray areas as neutral instead of warm. If they were actually near normal. then, yes, you'd have a solid below normal globe on that map. I agree with regard to the maps. There are two issues. First, JB has incorrect maps (all the global temperature data sets can't be wrong with only his maps being correct about negative anomalies). Second, JB treats the gray areas incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 The June 2012 and January-June 2012 Global Land & Ocean Anomalies from the NCDC data were: June 2012: 0.643°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.244°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 4th warmest January-June 2012: 0.522°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.101°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 11th warmest If one digs deeper into the data, one finds a pattern of warming that is consistent with the climate model forecasts (more aggressive Northern Hemipshere warming with the Southern Hemisphere slowest to warm, particularly as it relates to land masses): http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/figure-3-2.html Global land anomalies and Northern Hemisphere land anomalies were the warmest on record in June. The Southern Hemisphere land anomalies were near the 1981-2010 baseline in June and have been running slightly cooler than that baseline for the year as a whole.In both cases, the Southern Hemisphere land anomalies remain well above the 20th century baseline. Global: June 2012: 1.106°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.622°C above the 1981-2010 baseline (2.138 sigma deviation) Rank: 1st warmest January-June 2012: 0.522°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.239°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 6th warmest Northern Hemisphere: June 2012: 1.350°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.857°C above the 1981-2010 baseline (2.420 sigma deviation) Rank: 1st warmest January-June 2012: 1.046°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.352°C above the 1981-2010 baseline Rank: 9th warmest Southern Hemisphere: June 2012: 0.464°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.004°C above the 1981-2010 baseline January-June 2012: 0.456°C above the 1901-2000 average Also: 0.050°C below the 1981-2010 baseline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 GISS Update: Sometime between tomorrow and next week on Friday (probably early next week), the GISS temperature anomalies for July will be released. After recording the 4th warmest June on record, 2012 ranked as the 9th warmest year through June. Moreover, no cool anomaly has been recorded since February 1994. The last cool July occurred in 1985. July will likely see another very warm anomaly, though the July 2012 is not likely to rank among the 4 warmest July cases on record. July 2012 will probably have experienced among the 10 warmest readings for that month. If so, the January-July period will likely place 2012 among the 8-10 warmest years on record for the first seven months. With the El Niño still emerging (Region 3.4 anomalies rose to +0.55°C in July from June's +0.31°C anomaly), there remains a possibility that 2012 will finish the year ranked somewhere between 6th and 8th warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracetoyou Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Even if the maps were correct, his calling the global temp. anomaly below normal is a bit deceiving because it is only a tiny fraction below normal...i.e., really more like near normal. I think he may be continuing to treat the gray areas as neutral instead of warm. If they were actually near normal. then, yes, you'd have a solid below normal globe on that map. I'm leaning toward the current El Nino being weak, not moderate or strong. Assuming this will verify, global anom.'s may not warm much more this year. We'll see. He's not looking at the colors. The upper right hand of the map has -0.005c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracetoyou Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Someone with a Twitter account should correct him. Where are the maps he is using coming from? The map is posted by Ryan Maue & the source is NCEP CFS v.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 He's not looking at the colors. The upper right hand of the map has -0.005c. Don and I strongly suspect he's misinterpreting the colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Don and I strongly suspect he's misinterpreting the colors. He is. He's described areas with cool anomalies being larger than areas with warm anomalies. Consistently, the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data have shown otherwise. Often, it hasn't even been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 He's not looking at the colors. The upper right hand of the map has -0.005c. That calculated value is wrong. It's at odds with NCEP-NCAR re-analysis maps. Once the NCDC global data is out, there will be a positive anomaly against the 1981-2010 climatology (very likely > +0.10°C and perhaps near 0.15°C with a similar anomaly on the GISS global data that will be coming out sometime between today and next Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 He is. He's described areas with cool anomalies being larger than areas with warm anomalies. Consistently, the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data have shown otherwise. Often, it hasn't even been close. If the map shows a negative anomaly then he is correct in saying there are more cool anomalies. The question is, is his map right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 If the map shows a negative anomaly then he is correct in saying there are more cool anomalies. The question is, is his map right. I'm pretty sure that his maps are not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 If the map shows a negative anomaly then he is correct in saying there are more cool anomalies. The question is, is his map right. Not necessarily with the first point. The area of cool anomalies could be small, but very large cool anomalies could produce a negative overall outcome. For example, assume a hypothetical 10 km X10 km area. A 5 km X 5 km portion could have a -4 average anomaly. The remainder (75 square km) could have a +1 anomaly. Even as the latter is larger, the overall anomaly would wind up at -0.25°. On the second point, the map won't be right. One can already run the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis maps and most of the Northern Hemisphere land areas were warm. In addition, ENSO data showed R3.4 warming during July and that should probably be sufficient to maintain overall ocean temperatures. The Southern Hemisphere might be a little cooler than it was in June. Overall, not enough changes to the cool side have occurred to produce a negative anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 He is. He's described areas with cool anomalies being larger than areas with warm anomalies. Consistently, the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data have shown otherwise. Often, it hasn't even been close. He once overlayed Alaska on the central US to compare sizes of Alaska cold to US heat, but was using the cool blue colors starting at -0.5F to offset the warm yellow colors starting at +3.5F, completely ignoring the gray area representing +0.5-3.0F. I don't know if he's just being incredibly ignorant or purposefully misleading when he interprets those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I'm pretty sure that his maps are not right. Technically both maps are probably wrong but which one is closest to the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Does anyone have a link to the July 2012 global map with no adjustments and rural stations only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Technically both maps are probably wrong but which one is closest to the truth. The map that is closer to the actual data. GISS will come out probably next week (early is most likely). NCDC will come out the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Does anyone have a link to the July 2012 global map with no adjustments and rural stations only. As far as I know, no map products that fit those criteria exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 GISS global land and sea anomaly: +0.47°C (+0.13°C above the 1981-2010 baseline. YTD: +0.493°C. Northern Hemisphere for July was 3rd warmest on record (+0.75°C) and Northern Hemisphere land areas were 2nd warmest (+0.97°C). A more detailed analysis will be posted this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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