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Breaking : X-flare just released. (earth directed)


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I've compiled some great aurora pics from around the net and respond to aslkahuna's criticism (and others who made the same point in comments) of my assertions about NASA and NOAA and conflicting, unclear space weather forecasts:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/solar-storm-sparks-beautiful-aurora-photos-video/2012/07/16/gJQAcT7YoW_blog.html

Great article again. I linked your article earlier. Hope I didn't cause you too much grief. But thought it was a good article. This thread has produced great info BTW, your info included. CWG does a great job. Thanks for stopping by to discuss your work.

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M7.7 slow rising broad maximum and definite LDE Flare in progress right now. The GOES X-Ray imager shows that this is from region 1520 which is rotating around the limb. Besides the Radio blackout I definitely expect that the ongoing proton event (S1) will see an increase in the flux levels and a CME which will not be geoeffective. Polar Cap absorption which has been low will increase and depending upon how high the flux goes we could see communications and navigation problems for aircraft on Polar route.

Steve

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  • 9 months later...
  • 1 month later...

K-index greater than 7 this morning.  Report from SWPC and estimated impacts are down below.

 

Here's the chart from the last week:

 

k-index.png

 

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07

Serial Number: 41

Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0515 UTC

 

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected

Valid From: 2013 Jun 29 0515 UTC

Valid To: 2013 Jun 29 1000 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

 

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.

Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.

Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.

Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

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Event 41 came from the active region just north of center in this pic:

 

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2013/06/29/f0171pfss.jpg

 

It's 4mb but worth the look.

 

My old employer has a great events database (iSolSearch) with well indexed imaging tools.  Go here for a looksee:

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index.html?suntoday_date=2013-06-29

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I caught a very faint Aurora early yesterday morning here in Illinois. Sorry if the pic isn't that great but I was pretty excited and this was my first ever aurora sighting.  I'm thinking this is going to get me to go out more and hunt because I think at the time KP was 5.67. 

9296550748_a188b1549d_c.jpg
aurora in central Illinois 7-14-13 by EXORIMADreamer, on Flickr

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