Breaking : X-flare just released. (earth directed)

[mike2010]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.

credit - spaceweather.com

[phil882]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.

credit - spaceweather.com

Quite impressive.

[mike2010]

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the blast site:

[catoctin wx]

So if this is going to impact the Earth, when would that be?

[icebreaker5221]

Looks like proton flux is starting to respond:

You can monitor it in real-time (5 min updates) here:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Proton.gif

[hckyplayer8]

I'm guessing due to the time of year; chances of viewing the Aurora's, while in the lower 48, is slim to none?

[Mallow]

I'm guessing due to the time of year; chances of viewing the Aurora's, while in the lower 48, is slim to none?

Other than the fact that night is shorter, why would that be the case? The magnetic pole doesn't move with the seasons... is there something about the summer that prevents auroras from being as strong?

These are real questions... I don't know the answer! I'm not trying to be sarcastic/argumentative.

[OKpowdah]

Last two updates:

2012-07-12 17:14 R3-Radio Blackout Storm in Effect

R3-Radio Blackout Storms (Strong) are currently in effect. Region 1520, located close to center disk, is the culprit on today's events. It is still to early to see if an Earth-directed CME or energetic particles are associated with this event, however SWPC forecasters are monitoring the situation. Stay tuned for further information on this event and other Space Weather news.

2012-07-12 17:06 Developing Story

R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout now occurring from a region at the center of the Sun, a prime location for a CME -- if a part of the eruption -- to affect the geomagnetic field. Observations now coming in, updates here.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/WhatsNew.html

[hckyplayer8]

Other than the fact that night is shorter, why would that be the case? The magnetic pole doesn't move with the seasons... is there something about the summer that prevents auroras from being as strong?

These are real questions... I don't know the answer! I'm not trying to be sarcastic/argumentative.

That was my main guess. Less time without natural light equals a slimmer chance.

After I posted I started thinking back to high school Earth Science and remembered the deal about midnight sun at high latitudes during the Summer.

I guess that would put a damper on their chances of viewing also.

[mike2010]

So if this is going to impact the Earth, when would that be?

Usually 36 to 48 hours. Plenty of time to prepare for the apocalypse.

[NorEaster27]

meh just barely an X

[mike2010]

UPDATE, 2:35 p.m.: NASA’s Goddard Space Weather Center said a CME has occurred with the flare. No additional information is yet available.

Looks more impressive on this snap

funny article, looks like some finger pointing already going on..

http://www.washingto...pDtfW_blog.html

Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather, SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.

That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

“The home plate umpire wasn’t paying any attention,” said Kunches.

[catoctin wx]

Usually 36 to 48 hours.      Plenty of time to prepare for the apocalypse.      

Good to know. I only ask because I will be flying near the arctic circle on Sunday night. Didn't know if it was going to affect my flights or if I should expect a good show while at 35000 feet.

[OKpowdah]

2012-07-12 19:31 Solar Eruption Today -- Further Analysis

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt, so watch for more. Updates here.

[aslkahuna]

The flare was followed by Types II and IV sweep bursts which are indicators of a shock moving through and beyond the corona-or a CME. About auroral visibility-there is actually a seasonal variation in their appearance with the equinoctial periods tending to produce more frequent and stronger aurorae. This is especially true for the September-October period. The reason is not clear but may involve the Sun-Earth geometry. March-April also is a more active period as well. That said, however, does not rule out the possibility of strong aurbo activity IF the CME is fully Earth directed and IF it has the right magnetic polarity. I missed seeing this one after catching a smaller flare in 1520 yesterday there are passing clouds and also I usually begin my solar observaing after Noon.

Steve

[mike2010]

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/07/12/x-class-solar-flare-causes-radio-outages

Thursday's flare has already caused what NOAA classifies as an R3 radio blackout, meaning GPS satellite signals "degraded for about an hour" and there was a "wide area blackout of high frequency radio communication" on Earth.

According to Chamberlain, the region from which the flare erupted was on the part of the sun facing Earth, so it could potentially cause temporary power outages and further communication systems disruptions. He said the observatory would know more within a few hours if Earth is likely to be impacted.

[Sunny and Warm]

http://www.usnews.co...s-radio-outages

I would be surprised to see an X1.4 cause electrical power grid interruptions.

[Carvers Gap]

I would be surprised to see an X1.4 cause electrical power grid interruptions.

Any chance that NASA doesn't have the 1.4 rating correct since one of its satellites might have been out of "position?" Or is this measured in units that don't have to be directly observed?

[aslkahuna]

For starters, the X-Ray flux from the Sun including flares is measured by the GOES satellites in geosynchronous orbit so the X1.4 rating is valid. Secondly, the secondary flare effects or delayed effects have little bearing upon what the maximum X-Ray flux of the flare is but rather the energy, trajectory, and polarity properties of the resulting CME. X1's can cause some hefty gemag events or they may cause little effect and it's the gemag creates the issues referred to above. There has been a change in character in the flares from region 1520. Initia2lly, the events were all impulsive with fast rise and decline phases. But starting with the C5.6/1N I observed yesterday they became long duration events (LDE) which is important because W/m^2 per W/m^2, an X1 impulsive event will release far less energy than a X1 LDE and the resulting CME of the latter will tend to be larger and more turbulent. Additionally, the immediate dayside effects of a LDE will last longer as the X-ray flux will continue to cause SIDs (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances) as long as the flux stays up. The record in this regard occurred in August 1989 when a X20 LDE stayed above the X1 level for THIRTEEN HOURS!

Steve

[mike2010]

latest forecast track

earth gettin hit head on.

"According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. "

[Carvers Gap]

For starters, the X-Ray flux from the Sun including flares is measured by the GOES satellites in geosynchronous orbit so the X1.4 rating is valid. Secondly, the secondary flare effects or delayed effects have little bearing upon what the maximum X-Ray flux of the flare is but rather the energy, trajectory, and polarity properties of the resulting CME. X1's can cause some hefty gemag events or they may cause little effect and it's the gemag creates the issues referred to above. There has been a change in character in the flares from region 1520. Initia2lly, the events were all impulsive with fast rise and decline phases. But starting with the C5.6/1N I observed yesterday they became long duration events (LDE) which is important because W/m^2 per W/m^2, an X1 impulsive event will release far less energy than a X1 LDE and the resulting CME of the latter will tend to be larger and more turbulent. Additionally, the immediate dayside effects of a LDE will last longer as the X-ray flux will continue to cause SIDs (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances) as long as the flux stays up. The record in this regard occurred in August 1989 when a X20 LDE stayed above the X1 level for THIRTEEN HOURS!

Steve

Thank you. Super informative. GOES was the info I needed.

[Carvers Gap]

latest forecast track

earth gettin hit head on.

"According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. "

I must say that those graphics are pretty impressive.

[Witness Protection Program]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov wrote:

...It is still to early to see if an Earth-directed CME or...

(Sigh.)

[aslkahuna]

The flare resulted in an absorption event observed by the HAARP Riometer at 30 MHz lasting 2.5 hours and peaking at 1.2dB of absorption. Currently, the Polar Cap absorption due to the proton event is running around 0.2-0.5 dB at 30 MHZ.

Steve

[mike2010]

Finally, a movie of the event for us -

http://spaceweather....2/ipad/x1p4.m4v

[OKpowdah]

This would be so exciting. Too bad we're counting on darkness and clear skies. Both will be tough to come by

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/Alaska/2012/07/14

[SpartyOn]

Lucky I'm north of the 45th this weekend. This might be a chance!

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting article from Capital Weather Gang in regards to recent solar flare sited in this thread. Not trying to stoke the fire as I don't know who works for who on here. Just thought it was interesing that there is some difference in how NASA and NOAA view the effects. Are the differences very big or minor between the two entities...?

Link

[aslkahuna]

Typical media BS from someone who doesn't understand the complexities of what's happening. It's nonsensical to compare the state of the art of Space weather forecasting with that of hurricane forecasting and besides we DO have competing forecasts for hurricanes quite frequently-NHC's and Inaccuweather's or has the writer forgotten this. I have found that SWPC tends to be conservative at times and sometimes ends up low in their forecasts but that is inherent in NOAA . NASA, OTOH, is quite new to the game and sometimes are more feisty than condiitons warrant. As far as forecast terminology and language, both SWPC and NASA have tutorials that explain Space weather and terminology and I've tried here to help in various threads to explain the terminology and processes as simply as possible. If the writer of the article is too lazy to read them then it's his fault. Accessibility? Both the SWPC and NASA sites are as accessible as clicking on the link on your browser toolbar and the Goddard site (plus others) is linked to NASA site. In addition there quite a number of other sites available to look at which contain data and forecasts some of which I have referenced here. My interest in the Sun and its effects began back with cycle 19 in 1957 and I've been at it since even to the point of actually putting my own forecasts when I worked at FHU (and for awhile with the USAF). Unfortunately, these days many in the media are as irresponsible in their reporting of natural events as they are with politics.

Steve

[mike2010]

Interesting article from Capital Weather Gang in regards to recent solar flare sited in this thread. Not trying to stoke the fire as I don't know who works for who on here. Just thought it was interesing that there is some difference in how NASA and NOAA view the effects. Are the differences very big or minor between the two entities...?

Link

for the hesitant ones that don't like clicking on links -

Solar storm incoming: Federal agencies provide inconsistent, confusing information

A wave of plasma stoked by an X-class solar flare, the most intense type, is headed towards Earth. This blast of charged particles, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), is forecast to ignite a geomagnetic storm on Earth over the weekend. NOAA predicts it will be minor, maybe moderate. NASA says it will be moderate to severe.

I ask: which intensity will it be and why aren’t these two science agencies on the same page?

The intensity of the inbound CME matters.

If NOAA’s right, and the ensuing geomagnetic storm is minor, it’s no big deal. It means the high latitudes could be treated to some brilliant auroras over the weekend with few, if any, negative effects on earth-orbiting satellites or the power grid.

On the other hand, if NASA’s right, and the geomagnetic storm is strong to severe, Earth-orbiting satellites could get disoriented and the electrical grid, according to NOAA, could experience “widespread voltage control problems” among other issues. Aurora could be seen as far south as Alabama and northern California.

NOAA and NASA’s predictions about the CME also differ on timing. Last night, NOAA was forecasting a 1 a.m. Saturday arrival of the CME while NASA projected a 6:20 a.m arrival. NOAA has since revised its estimate to 9:00 a.m. NASA tweaked its estimate to 5:17 a.m.

The differences in these predictions raise the question why two government agencies aren’t coordinating and issuing one clear, consistent forecast along with estimates of the uncertainty.

Consider this scenario: A hurricane is approaching the East Coast. What if one U.S. government agency predicted the storm would make landfall as a category 1 to maybe category 2 storm, at worst, while another agency forecast the storm to reach the category 2, 3 or even 4 level? Imagine the widespread confusion that would ensue. How would anyone know if and how to prepare?

There’s a reason the National Hurricane Center closely works with local National Weather Service offices to coordinate hurricane and tropical storm information.

This needs to happen with NOAA and NASA and space weather.

The differences in the geomagnetic storm forecasts for the weekend probably reflect different roles and responsibilities in space weather at the two agencies. NOAA is the nation’s official source of alerts, watches and warnings about space weather and its impacts. NASA’s primary motivation for space weather forecasting is more specialized for “addressing the space weather needs of NASA’s robotic missions”.

Based on these different functions, it would appear NOAA’s information should be considered the most authorative and credible for impacts on Earth and NASA the go-to source for spacecraft. But while NOAA may well be the “official” source of information for our planet, the public and media take what NASA says seriously and NASA’s issuing Earth-based forecasts.

Citing NASA information, the very popular SpaceWeather.com website writes [bold text conveys my added emphasis] “According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the [NASA] Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.”

Contrast this with NOAA’s statement on its public Facebook page last night to expect [bold text conveys my added emphasis] “only minor geomagnetic storming here when the blast arrives likely Saturday, with few impacts noticeable to most people.”

The discrepancies between NOAA and NASA’s information are made worse by the fact their main website updates (on SpaceWeather.gov and the NASA Goddard Space Weather Center) are seldom accessible to the layperson.

Consider NOAA’s latest update, replete with acronyms and technical terms that non-specialists are likely to have trouble understanding:

The latest model run now indicates the CME associated with yesterday’s R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event will impact the earth’s magnetic field around 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 UTC) on Saturday, July 14. SWPC is forecasting category G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity then, with a chance of G2 (Moderate) levels at times through July 15. The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm persists just above event threshold. Region 1520 has decayed in the past 12 hours, but is still potentially eruptive.

Here’s an excerpt from NASA’s latest update - which is no better:

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2012-07-14T09:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the Kp maximum (Kp is a measure of geomagnetic disturbance levels ranging 0 - 9) is 6-8 (moderate to severe).

Why don’t these agencies prominently publish forecasts and explanations in plain English on their main websites for events attracting media attention?

This is a sorry state of affairs and I’d have to give NOAA and NASA very low marks for their space weather communication efforts.

I fully recognize forecasting space weather events is in­cred­ibly challenging and complex and that these two agencies have different scientists with different sets of expertise and different tools in their toolboxes.

But this does not absolve these Federal agencies from working together to provide clear, consistent information.

At some point in the future - especially with the solar cycle nearing its peak, it’s possible that a severe geomagnetic storm could threaten Earth with serious implications for satellite-based navigation and our power grid.

Related: Are we ready yet for potentially disastrous impacts of space weather?

The stakes are high, and it’s unfortunate, at the moment, we cannot rely on Federal government to provide particularly helpful, harmonized information.

(Note: This morning, I contacted both NOAA and NASA to comment on these issues, and have not yet received responses except from NOAA to affirm they are the official source of space weather forecasts. I will publish anything more substantive I hear back from either agency.)