PhillipS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 And of course, no mention of the southern hemispheric sea ice in your post either, Friv. Wow, you just listed three things that corroborate mainstream AGW predictions. The first two, fall snow extent and winter snow extent, are teh predicted consequence of warmer SSTs leading to increased evaporation and increased precipitation in some areas. The small increase in antarctic sea ice was predicted years ago as a consequence of the ozone hole over the antarctic. Glad you've finally seen the light and joined Team Reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Well, I am unaware of any rebuttals that address any of the papers about Antarctica and Sea Level changes, so no. My understanding is that the Antarctic has not contributed to sea level change, and probably won't for some time. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Wow, you just listed three things that corroborate mainstream AGW predictions. The first two, fall snow extent and winter snow extent, are teh predicted consequence of warmer SSTs leading to increased evaporation and increased precipitation in some areas. Increased snowfall globally would mean that there would have to also be COLD anomalies. Increased precipitation is moot if there isn't any cold at all. It has to be COLD if it wants to SNOW, right? Oh and read Sigmond and Fyfe 2010 on your second point. Since the 1970s sea ice extent has decreased dramatically in the Northern Hemisphere and increased slightly in the Southern Hemisphere, a difference that is potentially explained by ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. In this study we consider the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on Antarctic sea ice extent using a climate model forced with observed stratospheric ozone depletion from 1979 to 2005. Contrary to expectations, our model simulates a year‐round decrease in Antarctic sea ice due to stratospheric ozone depletion. The largest percentage sea ice decrease in our model occurs in the austral summer near the coast of Antarctica, due to a mechanism involving offshore Ekman sea ice transport. The largest absolute decrease is simulated in the austral winter away from the coast of Antarctica, in response to an ocean warming that is consistent with a poleward shift of the largescale pattern of sea surface temperature. Our model results strongly suggest that processes not linked to stratospheric ozone depletion must be invoked to explain the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Southern Hemispheric Ice? Yeah bro, that's definitely putting a huge dent in the global ice anomaly. No global snow cover yearly changes either? Fall and Winter have been nearly dead steady, while Summer and Spring have been plummeting but that won't cause any sort of significant snow cover trend? Why not post the southern Hemisphere Sea Ice charts Post the yearly snow cover data and show that there isn't a statistical trend. Also post the global sea ice are and extent charts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 My understanding is that the Antarctic has not contributed to sea level change, and probably won't for some time. Terry Glad we agree on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Southern Hemispheric Ice? Yeah bro, that's definitely putting a huge dent in the global ice anomaly. So show us the statistically significant trend in the Global Sea Ice anomaly. And remember not to make up lines when you go and prove that the trend in Global Sea Ice is significant Friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 And of course, no mention of the southern hemispheric sea ice in your post either, Friv. The Earth can experience a significant increase in snow during climate change/warming related to anthropomorphic factors. Some places, NYC for instance, are experiencing warmer overnight temperatures and increases of precipitation. It seems that the establishment of a great many new monthly temperature records in the setting of 140 years of data speaks volumes. The relative scarcity of new monthly temperature records doesn't bode well for arguing that the trend is null. Think about March 2012 in the USA. Some temperature records were 4 and 5 standard deviations from the mean. Most of the USA had no true sustained winter in the midst of a 12 month period of sustained overall warmth. When I was a teen in the late 1960s/early 1970s, we could play pickup ice hockey on most any nearby pond, lake or stream. Here in central Maryland, very few bodies of water freeze over as they did 40 years ago. Growing up, my Dad had to shut off the spigots to outside of the home else the pipes freeze and burst. The last time we had such cold was 1994. Washington, D.C. is experiencing very long episodes of consecutive months whereby the temperature never drops below 30 degrees. We are seeing named tropical systems from May into December. Something is amiss with the climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The Earth can experience a significant increase in snow during climate change/warming related to anthropomorphic factors. Some places, NYC for instance, are experiencing warmer overnight temperatures and increases of precipitation. And the temperatures in NYC for the snowy 2010-2011 winter featured BELOW NORMAL temperatures. A regional heat wave in the United States is not impressive on a Global Scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 And the temperatures in NYC for the snowy 2010-2011 winter featured BELOW NORMAL temperatures. A regional heat wave in the United States is not impressive on a Global Scale. Earth’s overall temperature has increased by 1.3°F (0.7°C) since 1900. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by about 40% since 1750. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Earth’s overall temperature has increased by 1.3°F (0.7°C) since 1900. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by about 40% since 1750. I agree. A third point should be that the level and duration in the high solar output during the 20th Century was some of the most unusual levels of high activity during the entire Holocene in the past 11500 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 And the temperatures in NYC for the snowy 2010-2011 winter featured BELOW NORMAL temperatures. A regional heat wave in the United States is not impressive on a Global Scale. True, but 220 consecutive months and 27.5 consecutive years of above normal temperatures (GISS) is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 True, but 220 consecutive months and 27.5 consecutive years of above normal temperatures (GISS) is impressive. Well, it doesn't really show you much other than the fact that we are warmer than the average for the 20th Century, which I don't think anyone disputes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 And the temperatures in NYC for the snowy 2010-2011 winter featured BELOW NORMAL temperatures. A regional heat wave in the United States is not impressive on a Global Scale. December 2010: -2.3C January 2011: -1.2C February 2011: 0.8C Total: -0.9C for the Winter in NYC that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 True, but 220 consecutive months and 27.5 consecutive years of above normal temperatures (GISS) is impressive. It is very impressive and shows us how much we have warmed if we can't get one freaking month to drop below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 December 2010: -2.3C January 2011: -1.2C February 2011: 0.8C Total: -0.9C for the Winter in NYC that year. Thanks for confirming my statement. Usually snowy winters are also tied to cold winters in the mid latitudes it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Thanks for confirming my statement. Usually snowy winters are also tied to cold winters in the mid latitudes it seems. You think -0.9C is well below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 You think -0.9C is well below normal? Where the heck did I say that a degree C below normal was WELL below normal? My point was that temperatures are usually below normal when there is above normal snowfall in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 You think -0.9C is well below normal? It was mostly for the US tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Where the heck did I say that a degree C below normal was WELL below normal? My point was that temperatures are usually below normal when there is above normal snowfall in the winter. View PostSnowlover123, on 12 July 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:And the temperatures in NYC for the snowy 2010-2011 winter featured BELOW NORMAL temperatures.A regional heat wave in the United States is not impressive on a Global Scale.Right There. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 View PostSnowlover123, on 12 July 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:And the temperatures in NYC for the snowy 2010-2011 winter featured BELOW NORMAL temperatures.A regional heat wave in the United States is not impressive on a Global Scale.Right There. Come on Friv he said below normal which it was. You interpreted it as him saying well below. As a whole most of the US was well below for the winter as you can see from the graphic i posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted July 15, 2012 Author Share Posted July 15, 2012 The charts I ran showing the relationship of the 30-year moving average of global temperatures related to the PDO-AMO and CO2 are below: What is the data source for predicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 What is the data source for predicted? The "predicted values" are from a regression analysis. The data is taken from: 1. PDO Index: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 2. AMO Index: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data 3. CO2 values: ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt 4. GISS global land and ocean anomalies: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 The "predicted values" are from a regression analysis. The data is taken from: 1. PDO Index: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest 2. AMO Index: http://www.esrl.noaa...on/amon.us.data 3. CO2 values: ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt 4. GISS global land and ocean anomalies: http://data.giss.nas...a_v3/GLB.Ts.txt Thank you. And basically, what those are showing is the 30-year moving average of global temps as recorded by the GISS, and that 30-year moving average has been steadily increasing and is almost linear (!). It then shows the forecast of the 30-year moving average based on the CO2, and the forecast almost lines up perfectly. The 1st graph shows the forecast based on the PDO and AMO and the forecast of the 30-year moving average was usually off, even though long term it continued to show its upward trend. On the PDO and AMO graph, have the two indices been tending to increase since 1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 On the PDO and AMO graph, have the two indices been tending to increase since 1980? They had been. PDO has turned down. AMO may have peaked and has remained steady or declined slowly despite month-to-month fluctuations. Despite those developments, the Northern Hemisphere land masses just experienced their warmest June on record (as per NCDC data for which separate land and ocean figures are available). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 AMO-2012 -0.034 0.035 0.055 0.116 0.198 0.339 0.419 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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