Hoosier Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 The 2012/Dust Bowl comparison is more valid for areas around the OV. Farther north naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The 2000s in SE Michigan were just not hot... Was it 2009 where we cracked 88 degrees like 3 times and no 90's. As someone who hates heat, I actually longed for the days of heat, just to remember what it was like. This decade is starting much warmer, but we were due. 2010s summers have started hot, but as you said we were due. There were a few hot summers in the 2000s, but even then the muggy nights were the big story, NOT the extreme heat. Despite seeing the lowest amount of 90F+ weather in a CENTURY in the 2000s, another thing you dont even see in those stats is that a huge majority of those 90F+ days, as it is, were LOW 90s. We very rarely cracked the mid-90s in the 2000s. Add in the heavier than normal snowfall, and the 21st century sure started off on the wrong foot for those you-know-whos "forecasting" more heat, less snow for the Lakes. Hit 90 a few times at DTW in 2009, but Im sure its possible it didnt further NW where you are. 2009 saw the 3rd coldest July on record for Detroit, and I believe the coldest on record for the midwest region as a whole. Half of years in the 2000s had hardly any heat DTW: 2000 - 1 day of 90F+ 2003 - 4 days of 90F+ 2004 - 3 days of 90F+ 2008 - 7 days of 90F+ 2009 - 4 days of 90F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Obviously it's early in the decade so extrapolation is dangerous... But the 2010s are on pace to obliterate the 90 days record for dtw according to those stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The intense heat is still around...just further south and west. Tulsa OK will see 105-110 degree temps each of the next 5 days, ater hitting 105 yesterday. Even with the break in the heat over the Midwest, it has remained warm. In fact, 48 out of the last 51 days have been above normal in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 In the near future it looks like the above normal temperatures; overall, are going to stay out of the GL's. The shift in the MJO towards phases 5 & 6, likely has something to do with that. It has been stuck in 1 & 2 since early to mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 In the long range it looks to me the Hot air mass starts to break down around the great lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Obviously it's early in the decade so extrapolation is dangerous... But the 2010s are on pace to obliterate the 90 days record for dtw according to those stats Yeah, this is 3 hot summers in a row to start the decade, but as you said, obviously with 7 years to go, no way, no how would extrapolation work in this situation. Because each decade will have some torchy summers and some cooler ones. For instance, in the torrid '30s, those record 169 days of 90F+ still included 4 years with below the longterm average of 12 days of 90F+. (1932 w/ 8 days, 1935 w/ 11 days, 1937 w/ 10 days, 1938 w/ 7 days). BTW, I just now realized an error I had made wrt 90F+ days. When I originally compiled the list, I missed 3 days of 90F+ from May 1934 (I noticed the error when I had only marked 33 days for 1934 when it should have been 36 days, which is 2nd only to 1988). So the 1930s actually had 172 days of 90F+. Just crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 The intense heat is still around...just further south and west. Tulsa OK will see 105-110 degree temps each of the next 5 days, ater hitting 105 yesterday. Even with the break in the heat over the Midwest, it has remained warm. In fact, 48 out of the last 51 days have been above normal in Chicago. Looks like the hottest temps will generally stay west of the MS River for the forseeable future. May get brief intense shots coming eastward (this may be more pronounced in the drought ravaged southern Midwest/western OV) but overall probably not the same extent as what we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Yeah, this is 3 hot summers in a row to start the decade, but as you said, obviously with 7 years to go, no way, no how would extrapolation work in this situation. Because each decade will have some torchy summers and some cooler ones. For instance, in the torrid '30s, those record 169 days of 90F+ still included 4 years with below the longterm average of 12 days of 90F+. (1932 w/ 8 days, 1935 w/ 11 days, 1937 w/ 10 days, 1938 w/ 7 days). Yup. Still, even if we had no more 90s the rest of the year and only had the average of 12 90s for the rest of the decade, it would still place as 4th most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I fully believe we are no where near finished with future heat waves. More 90s and streaks look likey. The ECMWF builds in basic summer heat again next week. Nothing nuts but most def 90s for many locations. Trends die hard in the 2010s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 I fully believe we are no where near finished with future heat waves. More 90s and streaks look likey. The ECMWF builds in basic summer heat again next week. Nothing nuts but most def 90s for many locations. Trends die hard in the 2010s For Kansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Looking at the 12z EURO through 180 hours - it looks like few hot days later this coming week, but nothing sustained and extreme. Another cooler shot of air for next weekend after 168 hours. LOT 's take on the upper air pattern: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012 .DISCUSSION... 511 PM CDT HEMISPHERIC SCALE... MODELS PROG THE BIG PICTURE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC..WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTINENT...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES NORTH TO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. BY LATER IN THE WEEK...SOME CHANGES START TO OCCUR...MAINLY FROM THE GULF OF AK EAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND B.C. WITH DOWNSTREAM EFFECT BEING THE FLATTENING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOCAL REGION TO REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW UNTIL THESE UPSTREAM CHANGES START TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL REGION WITH THE UPPER FLOW BACKING TO A WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY A WESTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 For Kansas? 90s by mid next week for Detroit and points north. Still Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 90s by mid next week for Detroit and points north. Still Summer Never said it was not summer anymore. Your talking about Heat waves and 90's streaks this week. Don't tell me isolated 90 degree weather one day in the middle of the week constitutes a heat wave. Pattern Change is lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Never said it was not summer anymore. Your talking about Heat waves and 90's streaks this week. Don't tell me isolated 90 degree weather one day in the middle of the week constitutes a heat wave. Pattern Change is lurking. Actually, like many words in the world of weather, heatwave is way overused. I always thought to have a heatwave you had to have 3+ days of 90F+, but I learned this year that an official heatwave is actually 5+ days of 90F+ or 3+ days of 95F+. Many summers in the 2000s never saw a single "heatwave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Never said it was not summer anymore. Your talking about Heat waves and 90's streaks this week. Don't tell me isolated 90 degree weather one day in the middle of the week constitutes a heat wave. Pattern Change is lurking. I know your not saying summer is over or anything but to say we might not get another heat wave at this point in the met summer is no different than saying we might not get an arctic out break for the month of Feb. I must add that it does appear that more enjoyable summer weather has settled in for the imediate short term. At least north of I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Actually, like many words in the world of weather, heatwave is way overused. I always thought to have a heatwave you had to have 3+ days of 90F+, but I learned this year that an official heatwave is actually 5+ days of 90F+ or 3+ days of 95F+. Many summers in the 2000s never saw a single "heatwave". That period of time varies greatly from nations and regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 IND hit 90. #26 for the month and a new record. 87 here. EDIT: Tomorrow may be close for them, but Tuesday is a shoe-in. If they can hit 90 for the next 2 days, it would be 28 out of 31 for July. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 IND hit 90. #26 for the month and a new record.87 here. EDIT: Tomorrow may be close for them, but Tuesday is a shoe-in. If they can hit 90 for the next 2 days, it would be 28 out of 31 for July. Just wow. Interesting tweet from an Indy met: This is beginning to be a notable problem. Look at 3 of the #indianapolis reporting sites. Official temp is warm #inwx pic.twitter.com/2aul8LTq Sent from my SCH-I500 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Interesting tweet from an Indy met: This is beginning to be a notable problem. Look at 3 of the #indianapolis reporting sites. Official temp is warm #inwx pic.twitter.com/2aul8LTq Sent from my SCH-I500 2 It's not really surprising that IND runs warmer. IND is surrounded by more urban area (including the larger airport). EYE is near a body of water and near more vegitation. TYQ is way on the NNW side of the town, in a rural-ish area. Not to mention he's trying to compare temps on a day that features some cloud issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 It's not really surprising that IND runs warmer. IND is surrounded by more urban area (including the larger airport). EYE is near a body of water and near more vegitation. TYQ is way on the NNW side of the town, in a rural-ish area. Not to mention he's trying to compare temps on a day that features some cloud issues. Also remember the temperature at our office has been near or even above KIND, and we're about 1 mile from KIND. We reached 109 for the highest temperature this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Also remember the temperature at our office has been near or even above KIND, and we're about 1 mile from KIND. We reached 109 for the highest temperature this summer. Are you west of the airport on I70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 south of I 70, east of the runways of the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 We still need to wait for the final 6-hour min to be updated...but it looks like Tulsa, OK set an all-time record high min this morning. The low looks to be 88 or 89. The previous record was 87 on 7/16/1980. The last 3 days in Tulsa have hit 105, 108, and 108...and they may hit 110 today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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