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Intense Heat Returning Mid/Late July?


Hoosier

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Skilling going with 102° tomorrow.

LOT does mention cooler readings over wetter soil areas. Can't wait to see what the dewpoints will end up being tomorrow! :yikes:

WEDNESDAY...

MAIN FOCUS OF CONCERN FOR WED WILL BE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR

POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST

IN. THE EXCEPTION TO LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPR 90S COULD BE FAR

NORTHEAST IL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IN...WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION

COULD LIMIT HOW WARM THE SFC BECOMES.

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LSX (STL) put out a noteworthy AFD update tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

942 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER

AREA...ROUGHLY FROM EDINA THROUGH STL METRO AREA TO NEAR

SLO...BELIEVE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL COOLING...AND VERY

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIN LAYER OF

HIGH RH CENTERED NEAR 650MB (CAPPED BY TEMPS OF +3C AT 560MB) WHICH

APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS ALONG

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THESE PATCHY CLOUDS DO HANG AROUND ALL

NIGHT IT WOULD LEAD TO INCREDIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT MINS...AND GIVEN

THE WAY THIS RECORD-SMASHING SUMMER IS GOING ANOTHER RECORD COULD

BE IN JEOPARDY. ALL TIME RECORD HIGH MIN FOR STL IS 86...IRONICALLY

ENOUGH SET JULY 24 1901 (LAST NIGHTS MIN OF 85 TIED FOR SECOND

WARMEST MIN). WOW...

TRUETT

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LSX (STL) put out a noteworthy AFD update tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

942 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER

AREA...ROUGHLY FROM EDINA THROUGH STL METRO AREA TO NEAR

SLO...BELIEVE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL COOLING...AND VERY

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIN LAYER OF

HIGH RH CENTERED NEAR 650MB (CAPPED BY TEMPS OF +3C AT 560MB) WHICH

APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS ALONG

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THESE PATCHY CLOUDS DO HANG AROUND ALL

NIGHT IT WOULD LEAD TO INCREDIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT MINS...AND GIVEN

THE WAY THIS RECORD-SMASHING SUMMER IS GOING ANOTHER RECORD COULD

BE IN JEOPARDY. ALL TIME RECORD HIGH MIN FOR STL IS 86...IRONICALLY

ENOUGH SET JULY 24 1901 (LAST NIGHTS MIN OF 85 TIED FOR SECOND

WARMEST MIN). WOW...

TRUETT

Amazing that they're still 97 (101 heat index) at 10pm.

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If any WAA cloud cover/precip (if there is any at all) moves out early enough in the morning, 100+ seems like a good call for ORD tomorrow.

I would go with 97 for now, but could easily see that several degrees higher if there are no issues. The NAM is showing 850mb temps of 26-28C, along with 925mb temps around 35C. Mixing levels are quite deep, to around 700mb. The combination of all of these factors could offset any affects of the recent rains.

The record high for tomorrow in Chicago is 101 (1940).

0z NAM came in a tick slower/farther west with the UA thermal axis, thus a tad "cooler" at the surface...Still enough for 100+ though.

Confidence has increased that any WAA precip/clouds (if there is any at all) won't be much of an issue, if one at all.

I'll bump up from the previous call to 99, with the only real concerns being UA thermal axis placement and afternoon CU development.

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00z NAM is a bit slower, and takes us out of the higher 850 temps. Still expect 102-105 readings in this area, but it looks like anything above 105 is out now.

Looks like the hottest temps will be in central Iowa up into western Wisconsin. Wouldn't be surprised to see La Crosse top 105 tomorrow. They usually overperform on days like this, and they are in a very favorable area to overachieve.

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Quite a few clouds spilling down from Wisconsin. Thunderstorms keep on firing around Lake County this morning, making the ground quite wet now! Solid thick overcast right now - no sun in sight...

On the St. Louis subject. I've been there on hot days - it's unbearable to be outside, at least for me! I think being in the river valley amplifies the UHI effect for the city.

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St Louis turning into Phoenix...my God that city is warm. Palm trees and bananas will start being native vegetation if this keeps up. They seem to hit 80F about every month of the year it would seem.

Speaking of, did you see Phoenix rolled off three consecutive days with min temps of 90+ earlier this month (9-11th)? Not unprecedented out there to see 90+ min temps, but man that's hot.

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On the St. Louis subject. I've been there on hot days - it's unbearable to be outside, at least for me! I think being in the river valley amplifies the UHI effect for the city.

It has been. Definitely chose the wrong time for vacation. We went to the budwiser factory yesterday for free beer and a tour, I forgot my phone in the car when we got back the battery temp was 160°. Wanted to go to six flags but that would be just stupid.

Sent from my SCH-I500 2

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St Louis turning into Phoenix...my God that city is warm. Palm trees and bananas will start being native vegetation if this keeps up. They seem to hit 80F about every month of the year it would seem.

Today should be the 11th day of 105+ temperatures for the year which would set a new record. Already tied the all-time record high minimum at 86 today. Should break the record high for today. However, I think today would make "only" the 16th day of 100+ temperatures which isn't even close to the record of 37. Other than last Friday with a fluke mid 80s day, we really haven't been able to enjoy any outside activities in St. Louis for the last month or month and half.

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