Geos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Skilling going with 102° tomorrow. LOT does mention cooler readings over wetter soil areas. Can't wait to see what the dewpoints will end up being tomorrow! WEDNESDAY... MAIN FOCUS OF CONCERN FOR WED WILL BE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE EXCEPTION TO LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPR 90S COULD BE FAR NORTHEAST IL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IN...WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT HOW WARM THE SFC BECOMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LSX (STL) put out a noteworthy AFD update tonight: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER AREA...ROUGHLY FROM EDINA THROUGH STL METRO AREA TO NEAR SLO...BELIEVE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL COOLING...AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIN LAYER OF HIGH RH CENTERED NEAR 650MB (CAPPED BY TEMPS OF +3C AT 560MB) WHICH APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THESE PATCHY CLOUDS DO HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT IT WOULD LEAD TO INCREDIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT MINS...AND GIVEN THE WAY THIS RECORD-SMASHING SUMMER IS GOING ANOTHER RECORD COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. ALL TIME RECORD HIGH MIN FOR STL IS 86...IRONICALLY ENOUGH SET JULY 24 1901 (LAST NIGHTS MIN OF 85 TIED FOR SECOND WARMEST MIN). WOW... TRUETT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Some stats from ILX that help illustrate why one needs to be careful comparing this year to the 1930's (especially 1936): http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=85762&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LSX (STL) put out a noteworthy AFD update tonight: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER AREA...ROUGHLY FROM EDINA THROUGH STL METRO AREA TO NEAR SLO...BELIEVE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL COOLING...AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIN LAYER OF HIGH RH CENTERED NEAR 650MB (CAPPED BY TEMPS OF +3C AT 560MB) WHICH APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THESE PATCHY CLOUDS DO HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT IT WOULD LEAD TO INCREDIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT MINS...AND GIVEN THE WAY THIS RECORD-SMASHING SUMMER IS GOING ANOTHER RECORD COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. ALL TIME RECORD HIGH MIN FOR STL IS 86...IRONICALLY ENOUGH SET JULY 24 1901 (LAST NIGHTS MIN OF 85 TIED FOR SECOND WARMEST MIN). WOW... TRUETT Amazing that they're still 97 (101 heat index) at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If any WAA cloud cover/precip (if there is any at all) moves out early enough in the morning, 100+ seems like a good call for ORD tomorrow. I would go with 97 for now, but could easily see that several degrees higher if there are no issues. The NAM is showing 850mb temps of 26-28C, along with 925mb temps around 35C. Mixing levels are quite deep, to around 700mb. The combination of all of these factors could offset any affects of the recent rains. The record high for tomorrow in Chicago is 101 (1940). 0z NAM came in a tick slower/farther west with the UA thermal axis, thus a tad "cooler" at the surface...Still enough for 100+ though. Confidence has increased that any WAA precip/clouds (if there is any at all) won't be much of an issue, if one at all. I'll bump up from the previous call to 99, with the only real concerns being UA thermal axis placement and afternoon CU development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 00z NAM is a bit slower, and takes us out of the higher 850 temps. Still expect 102-105 readings in this area, but it looks like anything above 105 is out now. Looks like the hottest temps will be in central Iowa up into western Wisconsin. Wouldn't be surprised to see La Crosse top 105 tomorrow. They usually overperform on days like this, and they are in a very favorable area to overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It looks like it make take a while for the winds to turn offshore tomorrow, mid 90's look like the safest bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Car thermometer, for what it's worth, was reading 100 along the riverfront an hour ago. This one seems to be fairly accurate in motion. Sent from my SCH-I500 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I really hope we don't overachieve tomorrow...looks brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Still 92 in St Louis. Absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Over/Under line set by Caplan at ORD is 99, I took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 STL ties their all time record high min (86º) this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 St Louis turning into Phoenix...my God that city is warm. Palm trees and bananas will start being native vegetation if this keeps up. They seem to hit 80F about every month of the year it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looks like another area of cirrus spilling down from the overnight convection up north. I wonder how much of a dent that'll put in our highs today. It definitely held us back yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Quite a few clouds spilling down from Wisconsin. Thunderstorms keep on firing around Lake County this morning, making the ground quite wet now! Solid thick overcast right now - no sun in sight... On the St. Louis subject. I've been there on hot days - it's unbearable to be outside, at least for me! I think being in the river valley amplifies the UHI effect for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 St Louis turning into Phoenix...my God that city is warm. Palm trees and bananas will start being native vegetation if this keeps up. They seem to hit 80F about every month of the year it would seem. Speaking of, did you see Phoenix rolled off three consecutive days with min temps of 90+ earlier this month (9-11th)? Not unprecedented out there to see 90+ min temps, but man that's hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 ORD off to a very slow start...no doubt we'll see some monster hourly jumps once the sun comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's actually a very nice-feeling morning out there. 75/61 currently. The blow-off cirrus are evident in my eastern sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Going to say little to no chance of 100 here...thick overcast hanging tough with blow off cirrus in store once it moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Still 73 after some early morning rain, we have a ways to go to get to the forcasted high of 97. Once these clouds burn off it will interesting to see how quickly temps jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 74 degrees, SE winds and high clouds above. Slow start here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 79 at IND at 10 am, 2 days ago it was 85 at 10am (high 102 then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On the St. Louis subject. I've been there on hot days - it's unbearable to be outside, at least for me! I think being in the river valley amplifies the UHI effect for the city. It has been. Definitely chose the wrong time for vacation. We went to the budwiser factory yesterday for free beer and a tour, I forgot my phone in the car when we got back the battery temp was 160°. Wanted to go to six flags but that would be just stupid. Sent from my SCH-I500 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interestingly enough, LOT bumped my point-and-click up to 102 for today. We'll see; the sun has been out pretty strongly so far this morning. Current temperature: 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Highly filtered sun up on the north shore. Still in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmg378s Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 St Louis turning into Phoenix...my God that city is warm. Palm trees and bananas will start being native vegetation if this keeps up. They seem to hit 80F about every month of the year it would seem. Today should be the 11th day of 105+ temperatures for the year which would set a new record. Already tied the all-time record high minimum at 86 today. Should break the record high for today. However, I think today would make "only" the 16th day of 100+ temperatures which isn't even close to the record of 37. Other than last Friday with a fluke mid 80s day, we really haven't been able to enjoy any outside activities in St. Louis for the last month or month and half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Given obs/recent model trends, I think 101 or 102 may be about the best we can do here today. We shall see. Tomorrow will be interesting...if the front slows down a touch then could make a quick early afternoon run toward 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That is a lot of 100F+ days. Crazy amt of heat. St Lous is sitting at 88.6F for the month (avg temp)... Phoenix, AZ sitting at 94F for the month (avg temp)... Miami, FL is at 82.9F for the month... (brrr!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wind still cutting off the lake and puddles still around from earlier. Just now getting into the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Up to 91 here. 30th 90+ day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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