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Intense Heat Returning Mid/Late July?


Hoosier

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85*F, on our way to highs in the low 90s.

000

FXUS63 KDTX 151105

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

705 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN

DIURNAL CU CEILING, PERHAPS STARTING AT OR JUST BELOW 5KFT BEFORE

LIFTING ABOVE THE 5KFT THRESHOLD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN

INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE

AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, A

GENERAL LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND

TO INHIBIT COVERAGE. INSTEAD, EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN MORE

SCATTERED IN NATURE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE COMING DURING PEAK

HEATING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR

THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE WITHIN THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH WILL DRIFT

EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES A NARROW

TIME WINDOW FOR THUNDER EAST OF PTK AFTER 18Z, BUT NOTHING

WARRANTING INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT

WINDS WILL BUILD IN BENEATH A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON

So much for the broken stratocumulus deck that was supposed to develop. No sign of that happening thus far with nearly clear skies.

20120715_1445_DTW_vis.jpg

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Was down in se IN at Madison area Thurs. through Saturday and enjoyed temps in the upper 70's to low 80's due to some cooler showers. Cannot believe it was actual rain at times, though no observed t storm. Not looking forward to the latest oncoming heat surge like a solar flare to parched areas up here in northern IN.

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It's going to be interesting to see how much temperatures overachieve over the next several days.  Most locations are even drier than they were earlier in the month with the first heat wave.

No doubt. Mixing looks deep and the dry ground should only serve to tack on a little more than what would otherwise occur.

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Heat advisory up through Tuesday, trying to hit 90 today before the lake breeze kicks in otherwise Monday and Tuesday are locks for upper 90's maybe 100

About the same story here. Up to 89° with the lake breeze approaching. Looks like it's through Racine though. Cumulus really building up during the noon hour.

I got 96, 97 for Monday, Tuesday - then lower 80s after that.

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My point for Tuesday is 99. That would be a little aggravating.

IND riding MET MOS per their AFD...which has 99º for LAF on Tuesday.

Speaking of MET, it must have been dialed down a bit. Remember the 107's, 108's, and I believe as high as 109, it was putting up for LAF with the last intense heat wave?

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IND riding MET MOS per their AFD...which has 99º for LAF on Tuesday.

Speaking of MET, it must have been dialed down a bit. Remember the 107's, 108's, and I believe as high as 109, it was putting up for LAF with the last intense heat wave?

We might've had a shot at that if LAF was behaving like it used to. :guitar:

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