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Intense Heat Returning Mid/Late July?


Hoosier

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We may even be able to tack on another 100*F is full sunshine/mixing is realized.

4km 12z NAM shows widespread 104*F-106*F readings tomorrow (it's a bit slower to heat things up too), even despite some morning debris/convection.

That would be amazing if we could have yet another 100+ degree day. Last spring, even the idea of one day above the century mark seemed like a crazy idea to me, since it had been so long since we had gotten a temperature that high, let alone three or four. Then we had that 100 degree day last July, and now three this year so far. Crazy, and definitely making up for lost time...

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That would be amazing if we could have yet another 100+ degree day. Last spring, even the idea of one day above the century mark seemed like a crazy idea to me, since it had been so long since we had gotten a temperature that high, let alone three or four. Then we had that 100 degree day last July, and now three this year so far. Crazy, and definitely making up for lost time...

Seems like they do tend to come in bunches. When looking through the data around here, some years only have 1 day but quite a few years have multiple days.

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Temp really soaring across Iowa. Up to 94 here, 99 in Ottumwa, 104 in Des Moines. We could have a shot at 100 in the next few days if the clouds can stay away in the morning.

The low drought-influenced dewpoints, currently only in the 50s in central/southern Iowa, are making it easy for the usual hot-spots like Des Moines to hit 100.

The high of 104 in Des Moines is the hottest temp there since August 17, 1988.

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ORD made it up to 89 and 90 at MDW.

First time this year that MDW hit 90 and ORD didn't....granted cloud cover stuck around longer at ORD.

I am almost directly between Midway and O'Hare.. (Both airports are about 8 miles or so, one to the north, the other to the SE.) and we hit 90, actually just shy of 91 here in the backyard. It was a brief 90 degree high, because within an hour ,the temperature was back down to 89.

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Looks like MKX is buying the 00z NAM, they just hosted a heat advisory for the southern half of counties. As long as there isn't any convective debris 100+ shouldn't be a problem.

For areas that got appreciable rain last week, I think the temperatures will bust low. Had decent amount of sun late afternoon, but only hit just shy of 87°. LOT not buying the NAM just yet..

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For areas that got appreciable rain last week, I think the temperatures will bust low. Had decent amount of sun late afternoon, but only hit just shy of 87°. LOT not buying the NAM just yet..

Even after factoring in recent rains, you're still talking about widespread temps AOA 100 if the NAM thermal profiles are anywhere close to correct AND if clouds aren't an issue.

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For areas that got appreciable rain last week, I think the temperatures will bust low. Had decent amount of sun late afternoon, but only hit just shy of 87°. LOT not buying the NAM just yet..

Ah yeah kind of forgot about that factor. Sheboygan was sunny for most of the day and got up to 97 but then again they didnt get that much rain during the week. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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At this point though I would go with upper 80's-low 90's, with similar debris cloud issues as has been seen the past two days. If cloud cover isn't an issue, the all-time record could be in play.

I'll stick with this given there as still concerns with upstream cloud debris across MN/SD.

Mid 80's-low 90's with sig cloud issues, but 100+ if there are no cloud issues at all.

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Lots of convection firing again over South Dakota, and even into northwest Iowa. Tomorrow looks very questionable to me. After being stuck in the mid 80s all day under thick clouds, MLI did manage to jump quickly up to 93 with about 2hrs of late afternoon sunshine. So if we can manage a few more hours of sun tomorrow temps could still approach 100. I'd honestly be very surprised if we saw full sun all day tomorrow, but if we did we could easily see 103-105 degree readings.

If I were forecasting I'd count on at least a decent chunk of tomorrow being stuck under debris cloudiness, and probably shoot the middle and go with mid 90s.

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85-105 seems like a doable range.

Forecasts for says like these where you have two plausible scenarios so far apart have always troubled me...do you assume debris issues and call for upper 80s and risk a horrible bust? Go gangbusters and call for 100+ and risk busting just as bad the other way? Or do you split it and forecast mid 90s so you won't bust as bad, even though the middle ground is probably the least likely to happen (either there's convective debris or there isn't).

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Forecasts for says like these where you have two plausible scenarios so far apart have always troubled me...do you assume debris issues and call for upper 80s and risk a horrible bust? Go gangbusters and call for 100+ and risk busting just as bad the other way? Or do you split it and forecast mid 90s so you won't bust as bad, even though the middle ground is probably the least likely to happen (either there's convective debris or there isn't).

The farther south you go, the more I'd lean toward the higher end (less clouds/bad drought). Up north, for starters, I'd take the average of the extremes and go a little above that since it won't take much sun to get a quick spike with many areas still having fairly dry ground, then adjust depending on what it looks like in the morning.

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A few light showers/thunderstorms are impacting the area now, but temperatures remain at 77°F at both DTW and City Airport, well above guidance which showed us dropping to around 70 tonight.

Yeah the temps aren't going anywhere soon, not with clouds and wind that we currently have.

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Yeah, we're going to need to clear out pretty quickly. The storms to our NW are moving pretty fast, but it'll be close. No telling how long the clouds behind that line might stick around either, judging from satellite images it looks to be fairly expansive.

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