Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Up to 88 here and at ORD. Looks like it will fall just short of 90, unless there was/is an intra-hour bump. It's up to 90 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I love tough forecasts like tomorrow, will dig into it after 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 It looks like the high here was 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 ORD made it up to 89 and 90 at MDW. First time this year that MDW hit 90 and ORD didn't....granted cloud cover stuck around longer at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 We may even be able to tack on another 100*F is full sunshine/mixing is realized. 4km 12z NAM shows widespread 104*F-106*F readings tomorrow (it's a bit slower to heat things up too), even despite some morning debris/convection. That would be amazing if we could have yet another 100+ degree day. Last spring, even the idea of one day above the century mark seemed like a crazy idea to me, since it had been so long since we had gotten a temperature that high, let alone three or four. Then we had that 100 degree day last July, and now three this year so far. Crazy, and definitely making up for lost time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 That would be amazing if we could have yet another 100+ degree day. Last spring, even the idea of one day above the century mark seemed like a crazy idea to me, since it had been so long since we had gotten a temperature that high, let alone three or four. Then we had that 100 degree day last July, and now three this year so far. Crazy, and definitely making up for lost time... Seems like they do tend to come in bunches. When looking through the data around here, some years only have 1 day but quite a few years have multiple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Temp has held at 91 here for the past 3 hours. Probably would've seen a more normal diurnal curve if it weren't for those clouds that interrupted heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 ORD made it up to 89 and 90 at MDW. First time this year that MDW hit 90 and ORD didn't....granted cloud cover stuck around longer at ORD. Joey, are you fully nude when you track the heat and do the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Temp really soaring across Iowa. Up to 94 here, 99 in Ottumwa, 104 in Des Moines. We could have a shot at 100 in the next few days if the clouds can stay away in the morning. The low drought-influenced dewpoints, currently only in the 50s in central/southern Iowa, are making it easy for the usual hot-spots like Des Moines to hit 100. The high of 104 in Des Moines is the hottest temp there since August 17, 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 I'd be tempted to go with 103 or 104 for LAF tomorrow if clouds aren't an issue. NAM is going to look ridiculous for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like MKX is buying the 00z NAM, they just hosted a heat advisory for the southern half of counties. As long as there isn't any convective debris 100+ shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 ORD made it up to 89 and 90 at MDW. First time this year that MDW hit 90 and ORD didn't....granted cloud cover stuck around longer at ORD. I am almost directly between Midway and O'Hare.. (Both airports are about 8 miles or so, one to the north, the other to the SE.) and we hit 90, actually just shy of 91 here in the backyard. It was a brief 90 degree high, because within an hour ,the temperature was back down to 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like MKX is buying the 00z NAM, they just hosted a heat advisory for the southern half of counties. As long as there isn't any convective debris 100+ shouldn't be a problem. For areas that got appreciable rain last week, I think the temperatures will bust low. Had decent amount of sun late afternoon, but only hit just shy of 87°. LOT not buying the NAM just yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 For areas that got appreciable rain last week, I think the temperatures will bust low. Had decent amount of sun late afternoon, but only hit just shy of 87°. LOT not buying the NAM just yet.. Even after factoring in recent rains, you're still talking about widespread temps AOA 100 if the NAM thermal profiles are anywhere close to correct AND if clouds aren't an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Joey, are you fully nude when you track the heat and do the stats. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 For areas that got appreciable rain last week, I think the temperatures will bust low. Had decent amount of sun late afternoon, but only hit just shy of 87°. LOT not buying the NAM just yet.. Ah yeah kind of forgot about that factor. Sheboygan was sunny for most of the day and got up to 97 but then again they didnt get that much rain during the week. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 At this point though I would go with upper 80's-low 90's, with similar debris cloud issues as has been seen the past two days. If cloud cover isn't an issue, the all-time record could be in play. I'll stick with this given there as still concerns with upstream cloud debris across MN/SD. Mid 80's-low 90's with sig cloud issues, but 100+ if there are no cloud issues at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 I'll stick with this given there as still concerns with upstream cloud debris across MN/SD. Mid 80's-low 90's with sig cloud issues, but 100+ if there are no cloud issues at all. 85-105 seems like a doable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Lots of convection firing again over South Dakota, and even into northwest Iowa. Tomorrow looks very questionable to me. After being stuck in the mid 80s all day under thick clouds, MLI did manage to jump quickly up to 93 with about 2hrs of late afternoon sunshine. So if we can manage a few more hours of sun tomorrow temps could still approach 100. I'd honestly be very surprised if we saw full sun all day tomorrow, but if we did we could easily see 103-105 degree readings. If I were forecasting I'd count on at least a decent chunk of tomorrow being stuck under debris cloudiness, and probably shoot the middle and go with mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Still 84°F at City Airport as of midnight, only 7 degress off of their high for the day. The clouds are really insulating us tonight, if we miss out on most of the convective debris in the morning this could be a setup for an incredibly hot day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 85-105 seems like a doable range. Forecasts for says like these where you have two plausible scenarios so far apart have always troubled me...do you assume debris issues and call for upper 80s and risk a horrible bust? Go gangbusters and call for 100+ and risk busting just as bad the other way? Or do you split it and forecast mid 90s so you won't bust as bad, even though the middle ground is probably the least likely to happen (either there's convective debris or there isn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Forecasts for says like these where you have two plausible scenarios so far apart have always troubled me...do you assume debris issues and call for upper 80s and risk a horrible bust? Go gangbusters and call for 100+ and risk busting just as bad the other way? Or do you split it and forecast mid 90s so you won't bust as bad, even though the middle ground is probably the least likely to happen (either there's convective debris or there isn't). The farther south you go, the more I'd lean toward the higher end (less clouds/bad drought). Up north, for starters, I'd take the average of the extremes and go a little above that since it won't take much sun to get a quick spike with many areas still having fairly dry ground, then adjust depending on what it looks like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 A few light showers/thunderstorms are impacting the area now, but temperatures remain at 77°F at both DTW and City Airport, well above guidance which showed us dropping to around 70 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 A few light showers/thunderstorms are impacting the area now, but temperatures remain at 77°F at both DTW and City Airport, well above guidance which showed us dropping to around 70 tonight. Yeah the temps aren't going anywhere soon, not with clouds and wind that we currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Well it doesn't look like clouds will be an issue and its already 83 this morning. My call is 100 for a high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I'm going with 100 for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I'm going with 100 for DTW Better hope we clear out by 10AM then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Yeah, we're going to need to clear out pretty quickly. The storms to our NW are moving pretty fast, but it'll be close. No telling how long the clouds behind that line might stick around either, judging from satellite images it looks to be fairly expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 100+ easy for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Mt. Geos 83 and Milwaukee 81@ 6 am - wow. felt awesome out. I guess the great breeze and mist from watering hitting the skin made it feel like it wasn't in the 80's still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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