Hoar_Frost Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Only 88 here today. Probably about the same tomorrow (due to debris cloudiness again) though perhaps a couple of degrees warmer by virtue that temperatures will begin an ascent from a higher base. (The low here this morning was 62, and I couldn't see the temperature dropping much below 70 tonight.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Way overdone even with 100% sunshine, but with cloud debris/precip issue this forecast will bust horribly for a large area. In some cases by 20-30 degrees. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 The ridge was never progged to be that impressive farther northeast, I would ignore 850's first when making forecasts. Today actually, was never going to be that hot. Nor was the week. Don't underdue it now, the clouds will be weaker in the coming days. But high 90's/100 degree stuff doesn't fit with this ridge profile. The next big 'wave' imo will start when the nao returns to its negative phase. Compressional heating. (then of course, drought-enhanced). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Looks to be the last of the Intense heat for SEMI this summer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Thicker clouds look to move in here later this afternoon. Could take a little bit off the expected high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Way overdone even with 100% sunshine, but with cloud debris/precip issue this forecast will bust horribly for a large area. In some cases by 20-30 degrees. lolz Thermal ridge looks to poke into either side of the I-80 corridor tomorrow. That map above is overdone but could envision mid 100s IF (big IF) clouds aren't an issue, especially in areas that didn't receive heavy rain recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 90 here for the 33rd time this year. Actual total may be slightly higher as LAF is missing some data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 This is going to bust - nutty NAM! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 With a high so far of 91°F we've now doubled our normal yearly total of 90 degree days at Detroit with 22. Tomorrow we should be able to tack on 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 90 here for the 33rd time this year. Actual total may be slightly higher as LAF is missing some data. Are you counting July 1st? That day hit 90 according to hourly obs on wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Are you counting July 1st? That day hit 90 according to hourly obs on wunderground. Nope, just went by what the F6 has, and it has M for July 1. Make it 34 then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Looks to be the last of the Intense heat for SEMI this summer?? Tuff call. Most likey no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 With a high so far of 91°F we've now doubled our normal yearly total of 90 degree days at Detroit with 22. Tomorrow we should be able to tack on 23. We may even be able to tack on another 100*F is full sunshine/mixing is realized. 4km 12z NAM shows widespread 104*F-106*F readings tomorrow (it's a bit slower to heat things up too), even despite some morning debris/convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Stuck under meaningless mid-upper clouds again today. Result is temps about 10-15 degrees cooler than what would have been with full sun. Expect more of the same tomorrow and Tuesday. Wednesday still has hope of some intense heat with the mid-level wind highway pushing further northeast. The 4km NAM forecast of 112 for here tomorrow is absolutely hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Was cloudy here most of the morning again, but now the sun is out and the temp is shooting up pretty quickly. The CR airport is up to 88. Des Moines is 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 The 4km nested NAM might not be too far off. Given thermal profiles and mixing levels, areas that have managed to stay dry lately (IA/NW. IL) could very well end up in the mid-upper 100's if the are no issues(cloud debris, etc). Not 110's, but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 3 PM obs for IN cities: SBN 84 FWA 87 IND 95 EVV 91 LAF 89 IND continues to pwn loLAF this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 3 PM obs for IN cities: SBN 84 FWA 87 IND 95 EVV 91 LAF 89 IND continues to pwn loLAF this summer. Clouds can explain today. LAF was basically neck and neck with IND until an hour or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Clouds can explain today. LAF was basically neck and neck with IND until an hour or two ago. I know. I was just messin' with ya. The clouds are playing havoc with temps across Northern IN. FWA may have actually had an intrahour 90 before the clouds rolled in. I have noticed that LAF hasn't had quite the warm bias lately that they've seemed to have in the past though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Temp really soaring across Iowa. Up to 94 here, 99 in Ottumwa, 104 in Des Moines. We could have a shot at 100 in the next few days if the clouds can stay away in the morning. The low drought-influenced dewpoints, currently only in the 50s in central/southern Iowa, are making it easy for the usual hot-spots like Des Moines to hit 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Temp really soaring across Iowa. Up to 94 here, 99 in Ottumwa, 104 in Des Moines. We could have a shot at 100 in the next few days if the clouds can stay away in the morning. Pretty impressive considering they were only 83 at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 I know. I was just messin' with ya. The clouds are playing havoc with temps across Northern IN. FWA may have actually had an intrahour 90 before the clouds rolled in. I have noticed that LAF hasn't had quite the warm bias lately that they've seemed to have in the past though. Tim and I have also noticed that. Looks like an intrahour high of 94 for LAF (highest hourly ob so far was 90). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 So far 94 is the high for DTW per CLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 ORD with 4F jump in the past hour up to 86. We'll see if there is a late day rally to 90 with clouds clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 The 4km nested NAM might not be too far off. Given thermal profiles and mixing levels, areas that have managed to stay dry lately (IA/NW. IL) could very well end up in the mid-upper 100's if the are no issues(cloud debris, etc). Not 110's, but close enough. NAM really roasts you guys. Doesn't look to be any substantial lake breeze tomorrow so at least that is one less thing to factor in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Tagged 90 here in a period of sunshine in the last hour. This is the 36th day this year AOA 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 NAM really roasts you guys. Doesn't look to be any substantial lake breeze tomorrow so at least that is one less thing to factor in. Indeed. At this point though I would go with upper 80's-low 90's, with similar debris cloud issues as has been seen the past two days. If cloud cover isn't an issue, the all-time record could be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Tagged 90 here in a period of sunshine in the last hour. This is the 36th day this year AOA 90. Up to 88 here and at ORD. Looks like it will fall just short of 90, unless there was/is an intra-hour bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Tagged 90 here in a period of sunshine in the last hour. This is the 36th day this year AOA 90. EDIT: The temperature is still increasing here. Up to 91 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Indeed. At this point though I would go with upper 80's-low 90's, with similar debris cloud issues as has been seen the past two days. If cloud cover isn't an issue, the all-time record could be in play. Yeah there's been decent potential the last few days. Tomorrow's potential is very impressive. As you point out though the setup is nearly identical to the last few days. The vort max train continues to roll through southern Minnesota. Anything that blows up there pukes mid-upper level debris all over areas southeast. I guess we'll see but I'm more than pessimistic about tomorrow. As you probably could sense lol. We really won't know until very late tonight or tomorrow morning if we'll get lucky and stay relatively cloud free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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