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Intense Heat Returning Mid/Late July?


Hoosier

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Only 88 here today. Probably about the same tomorrow (due to debris cloudiness again) though perhaps a couple of degrees warmer by virtue that temperatures will begin an ascent from a higher base. (The low here this morning was 62, and I couldn't see the temperature dropping much below 70 tonight.)

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The ridge was never progged to be that impressive farther northeast, I would ignore 850's first when making forecasts. Today actually, was never going to be that hot. Nor was the week. Don't underdue it now, the clouds will be weaker in the coming days. But high 90's/100 degree stuff doesn't fit with this ridge profile.

The next big 'wave' imo will start when the nao returns to its negative phase.

Compressional heating.

(then of course, drought-enhanced).

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Way overdone even with 100% sunshine, but with cloud debris/precip issue this forecast will bust horribly for a large area. In some cases by 20-30 degrees.

lolz

temp45.gif

Thermal ridge looks to poke into either side of the I-80 corridor tomorrow. That map above is overdone but could envision mid 100s IF (big IF) clouds aren't an issue, especially in areas that didn't receive heavy rain recently.

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With a high so far of 91°F we've now doubled our normal yearly total of 90 degree days at Detroit with 22. Tomorrow we should be able to tack on 23.

We may even be able to tack on another 100*F is full sunshine/mixing is realized.

4km 12z NAM shows widespread 104*F-106*F readings tomorrow (it's a bit slower to heat things up too), even despite some morning debris/convection.

temp33.gif

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Stuck under meaningless mid-upper clouds again today. Result is temps about 10-15 degrees cooler than what would have been with full sun. Expect more of the same tomorrow and Tuesday. Wednesday still has hope of some intense heat with the mid-level wind highway pushing further northeast.

The 4km NAM forecast of 112 for here tomorrow is absolutely hilarious.

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The 4km nested NAM might not be too far off.

Given thermal profiles and mixing levels, areas that have managed to stay dry lately (IA/NW. IL) could very well end up in the mid-upper 100's if the are no issues(cloud debris, etc). Not 110's, but close enough.

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Clouds can explain today. LAF was basically neck and neck with IND until an hour or two ago.

I know. I was just messin' with ya. The clouds are playing havoc with temps across Northern IN. FWA may have actually had an intrahour 90 before the clouds rolled in. I have noticed that LAF hasn't had quite the warm bias lately that they've seemed to have in the past though.

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Temp really soaring across Iowa. Up to 94 here, 99 in Ottumwa, 104 in Des Moines. We could have a shot at 100 in the next few days if the clouds can stay away in the morning.

The low drought-influenced dewpoints, currently only in the 50s in central/southern Iowa, are making it easy for the usual hot-spots like Des Moines to hit 100.

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I know. I was just messin' with ya. The clouds are playing havoc with temps across Northern IN. FWA may have actually had an intrahour 90 before the clouds rolled in. I have noticed that LAF hasn't had quite the warm bias lately that they've seemed to have in the past though.

Tim and I have also noticed that.

Looks like an intrahour high of 94 for LAF (highest hourly ob so far was 90).

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The 4km nested NAM might not be too far off.

Given thermal profiles and mixing levels, areas that have managed to stay dry lately (IA/NW. IL) could very well end up in the mid-upper 100's if the are no issues(cloud debris, etc). Not 110's, but close enough.

NAM really roasts you guys. Doesn't look to be any substantial lake breeze tomorrow so at least that is one less thing to factor in.

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NAM really roasts you guys. Doesn't look to be any substantial lake breeze tomorrow so at least that is one less thing to factor in.

Indeed.

At this point though I would go with upper 80's-low 90's, with similar debris cloud issues as has been seen the past two days. If cloud cover isn't an issue, the all-time record could be in play.

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Indeed.

At this point though I would go with upper 80's-low 90's, with similar debris cloud issues as has been seen the past two days. If cloud cover isn't an issue, the all-time record could be in play.

Yeah there's been decent potential the last few days. Tomorrow's potential is very impressive. As you point out though the setup is nearly identical to the last few days. The vort max train continues to roll through southern Minnesota. Anything that blows up there pukes mid-upper level debris all over areas southeast.

I guess we'll see but I'm more than pessimistic about tomorrow. As you probably could sense lol. We really won't know until very late tonight or tomorrow morning if we'll get lucky and stay relatively cloud free.

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