snowlord81 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 NAM wants to get the party started early, showing 100's for LAF as early as Sunday. NAM has been pretty good with the heat so far, minus some of the convective stuff thats messed with temps the last few days. Shows 100+ for LAF and IND sunday. No rain either, so the rain that has fallen lately will be a distant memory by then. ECMWF shoes the heat peaking later on next week. Im with you Hoosier, barring any convection I think LAF and IND could have multiple days of 100's next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2012 Author Share Posted July 20, 2012 NAM has been pretty good with the heat so far, minus some of the convective stuff thats messed with temps the last few days. Shows 100+ for LAF and IND sunday. No rain either, so the rain that has fallen lately will be a distant memory by then. ECMWF shoes the heat peaking later on next week. Im with you Hoosier, barring any convection I think LAF and IND could have multiple days of 100's next week. I think the stretch we are entering could rival what happened earlier this month as far as intensity/duration. May not be the case everywhere but I think it will be here. 850 mb temps may not be quite as warm as earlier this month, but even after factoring in the recent rains we are generally in similar or worse shape drought wise than a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Looking like Monday through Wednesday should easily break 100 around here as long as clouds hold off. Wouldn't be surprised to see MLI top their 104 reading they had a few weeks back. Essentially no rain has fallen over much of the eastern half of Iowa and far western Illinois in the last few weeks. DSM is all in. They have 100+ in their zones Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue, and Wed lol. Don't recall DSM or DVN ever forecasting such a long streak of 100+ temps. The SREF max temp forecast for Sunday is pretty nuts. 112 in eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 I really think that first week in July might be fairly instructive for what will occur this week. The more reliable guidance (at least so far this season) has many question marks about rainfall in northern Illinois (maybe not so farther north and east ...). It is not at all a high-confidence situation; the afternoon LOT AFD does a good job highlighting that. Additionally, as Cyclone mentioned, most of western Illinois and eastern Iowa has been very dry in last couple of weeks. Wednesday's rains were not super generous everywhere -- yes, there were some areas that received two or more inches, but those were the exception, with a rough average of an inch of rain over the areas affected -- so those rains will soon be a memory in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 At one point or another, this has to end, correct? Skilling is thinking 100+ for Monday, and possibly 100 for Wed. TV Mets are calling for upper 90's. Although, there is a possibility for storms Wed-Fri of next week. Been looking at the models for a hint that the massive heat ridge in the middle of the country shows signs of shrinking, or cooling, or something, and it's just not happening. It has truly been a long hot summer... and I am tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 At one point or another, this has to end, correct? Skilling is thinking 100+ for Monday, and possibly 100 for Wed. TV Mets are calling for upper 90's. Although, there is a possibility for storms Wed-Fri of next week. Been looking at the models for a hint that the massive heat ridge in the middle of the country shows signs of shrinking, or cooling, or something, and it's just not happening. It has truly been a long hot summer... and I am tired of it. Yeah I'm tired the heat now too. Was tired of it before we got to July. Good thing is that the heat will eventually diminish - the days are getting shorter! It might take a tropical system coming up into the Gulf to finally break this cursed pattern. EURO does look good for convection for the northern areas of the drought region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Yeah I'm tired the heat now too. Was tired of it before we got to July. Good thing is that the heat will eventually diminish - the days are getting shorter! It might take a tropical system coming up into the Gulf to finally break this cursed pattern. EURO does look good for convection for the northern areas of the drought region. An alien invasion followed by thermal nuke war couldn't break this pattern. The sun is running hot! DLL is right. It will take a volcano to shatter this heat. Summer heat wanes and the Fall torch will start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 An alien invasion followed by thermal nuke war couldn't break this pattern. The sun is running hot! DLL is right. It will take a volcano to shatter this heat. Summer heat wanes and the Fall torch will start. Haha, it is a stubborn pattern. It's got nothing to do with the sun, more like residual La Niña effects. We are in a low solar activity cycle. Won't disagree with the volcano scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 For Sure GEOS, the current pattern is due to the Atmospheric Base State which is like a La Nina right now as the Global Wind Oscillation has shown. Even the folks at JAMSTEC commented on the decoupled Ocean-Atmospheric Pattern. JAMSTEC: ENSO forecast: A warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern tropical Pacific (almost El Niño condition) will continue for next several months until boreal winter. Since the low-level winds do not show the typical ocean-atmosphere coupled nature of El Niño, it is too early to declare the onset of El Niño. --- This is where the ENSO Modoki SST Profile can become a more determinant indicator during these "decoupled Ocean/ATM" periods for seasonal forecasting. Right Now, the Ocean is in a El Nino State, but it's not coupled with the Atmophere Yet, as we are in a La Nina-Esque Circulation Pattern, which supports mean ridge over the center of CONUS. When the GWO consistently moves around Stage 2 (+Positive Mountain/Coriolis Torques) then eventually to Stage 3 (El Nino), things will change. Right now, we have only had 3 deviating GWO reading in a row, July 18th-19th were in Stage 2, July 20th was in Stage 4, but the Amplitude of the signal was so weak, it would be consideered a no signal (Much like the Circle of Death in the MJO Wheeler-Hendon Classification). We need to see a good 20-30 days of deviation away from Stage 1 +/- 0.5 (La Nina ATM State) before things change on a semi-permanent basis. The same thing happened for much of this last Winter, The Ocean was in a La Nina Phase State, but much of the time we were in and around Stage 3 of the GWO. It was the opposite miscoupled pattern we have now. Really Bizarre since December. Another weird feature is the extreme persistence of the EPO pattern, the Low Pressure Anomaly over Alaska/GOA/NW Canada, No Pacific Blocking hardly, which brings High Pressure & Warm Temps to Central NA, and 2/3rds of CONUS. Once, this EPO flips, which is just a matter of time, Pacific Blocking will finally rear it's head, hopefully by Fall/Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Real quiet in this thread today, must be gearing up for the next invasion. After reviewing the data, EURO looks hot through the extended with a small break after the ridge flattens late next week. i still think its possible for alot of places to overachieve even after the recent rains. I think IND, LAF and HUF all will hit 100 next week. Possibly 3 or 4 times if clouds/storms dont impede. Now,max temp wise Im not sure but I think some places here in Indiana could top out around 103-104. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Sun: 96 Mon: 101 Tue: 101 Wed: 102 Thu: 100 Two days late, but why not? Sunday: 97º Monday: 101º Tuesday: 95º Wednesday: 103º Thursday: 94º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Haha, it is a stubborn pattern. It's got nothing to do with the sun, more like residual La Niña effects. We are in a low solar activity cycle. Won't disagree with the volcano scenario! I've read a multitude of articles that have signaled an uptick in solar activity since 2010. Just alone the sun spot counts have been very high as to compared to years prior to 2010. It's an active ball of fire ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 The GFS (0z - 6z) brings out the flame thrower by D8-10. Some nasty 25c +/- 850s pushing into the west side of the Hudson Bay. Toasty times ahead if that ridge decides to pulse west like the seasonal trends suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 So, for the foreseeable future, hot weather is going to be the staple for around here. Great.... If I sacrificed a goat.....would that help? (Does it matter if it's a stuffed one?) So far, I have recorded at least 7 days over 100 from the back yard weather station. I lost count of those over 90 and 95..... Being a stay at home dad, the heat has made most of our usual summer activities less than fun, and has curtailed them as well. Even going to the pool on very hot days isn't much relief, because it's crowded, and the water feels like a warm bath, which isn't real refreshing. So, the way I see it at least 30-45 days of this weather yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 I've read a multitude of articles that have signaled an uptick in solar activity since 2010. Just alone the sun spot counts have been very high as to compared to years prior to 2010. It's an active ball of fire ATM. I think we would have been cooked during the last solar maximum and seen an even a hotter summer than this one if it was all the sun's doing. Sun plays some part, I don't argue that, but I think that March torch helped start a drier spring than normal and messed up the normal rhythm of summer North American weather pattern progression. Therefore, has kept us in a rinse and repeat pattern. The GFS (0z - 6z) brings out the flame thrower by D8-10. Some nasty 25c +/- 850s pushing into the west side of the Hudson Bay. Toasty times ahead if that ridge decides to pulse west like the seasonal trends suggest. You mean east right? I saw some spring forecasts for the summer with the core of the heat being centered in and around Kansas. So far that has held up really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 Two days late, but why not? Sunday: 97º Monday: 101º Tuesday: 95º Wednesday: 103º Thursday: 94º There's a couple days that are hard to pin down due to potential convection. My scenario went with a less aggressive convective outcome but definitely could envision large busts on some days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 High temps over each of the next several days could easily be messed up by convection/debris clouds. Looks like today will be the first day with issues, with temps struggling to make it into the upper 80's, instead of the low 90's that were once expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 There's a couple days that are hard to pin down due to potential convection. My scenario went with a less aggressive convective outcome but definitely could envision large busts on some days. Yeah, I know. My numbers are me guessing on the days precip/clouds could hold things in check. Otherwise, I would've gone higher. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Looking at the noon surface observations, I note that temperatures are basically in the lower to middle 80's (86 here) throughout all of Illinois and Indiana, yet the blow-off cirrus from the rainfall across northern Iowa and western Wisconsin are affecting mainly the northern third or so of Illinois. Interesting. Perhaps the guidance was simply a little too quick building higher heights (and higher temperatures) back into the region though the aforementioned complex may have helped to suppress ridging temporarily. Might squeeze a 90 here, but more likely 88-89. With respect to intense heat in the upcoming week, I am becoming a little more concerned about the effect of convection on the heat from an increasingly intriguing northwest-flow pattern. That could help modulate some of the potentially hottest temperatures, particularly beyond Monday. Of course, this year, at least over here in northern Illinois, temperatures have tended to get pretty hot, anyway, even in the face of convection and convective debris (when it did manage to occur). And, discomfort may come either way since increased rainfall will make conditions that much more muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Yeah my confidence in the heat wave has waned as well. Looks like clouds could temper this wave quite a bit for areas along and north of I-80. EDIT: DVN already spooked and shaved several degrees off the forecast highs the next several days. Heat spell may end up being a non-event. Rain chances will be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 ECmWF continues to show decent heat starting by Sunday and continuing until Thursday for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 At this point, I'd rather have either fairly extreme heat (so that it doesn't become the summer of futility like the winter did) or juicy MCSs (which can be at the expense of extreme heat). Truly nice weather (like yesterday's weather or even a bit cooler) would be welcome, too; today is even a bit warm for my liking. Debris cloudiness from wimpy rains, like today, is just going to piss me off (and won't help the drought much)! Maybe I just like to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Yeah my confidence in the heat wave has waned as well. Looks like clouds could temper this wave quite a bit for areas along and north of I-80. EDIT: DVN already spooked and shaved several degrees off the forecast highs the next several days. Heat spell may end up being a non-event. Rain chances will be nice though. LOT continues to slowly back off too. The ECMWF has really backed off on the past 3 runs. It went from showing 90+ through next weekend, with a few 100+ days...To showing just 3 90+ days during that period around here. It still has 100+ on Mon, but confidence in that is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 100 looks actually obtainable for DTW on Mon, barring little convection/debris. 18Z 4KM NAM is outrageous, indicating 107 due to lack of cloud debris. Realistically, highs could vary wildly from upper 80s to around 100 depending in timing and location of convection, but being ahead of the front with increased SW flow and deep mixing will allow for 100 degree potential, though I think temps could fall just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 SNOW LINE IS PRETTY FAR SOUTH... HAHAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 IND and EVV both hit 90 today. New streaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Yeah I can see LOT is backing off on the highs. Down to 98° for a high on Monday, was 101°. After that 78° and storms on Tuesday, then mid 80s roughly and chance of storms every day. High 86° today. Dewpoints are back in the uncomfortable range. Edit: LOT disco on Monday's heat. INTENSE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP DISLODGE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...THOUGH LARGE HUDSON BAY VORTEX IS NOT EXPECTED TO BUDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE HEART OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEING SHUNTED MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA ON ITS FRINGES AND CLOSER TO THE JET STREAM AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PRONE TO CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IN BOTH THE ECMWF/WRF-NAM SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER AT 925MB THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS DISPLACED MORE THAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR 100 DEGREE TEMPS LOCALLY. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY GREEN THINGS UP A BIT MORE WHICH IS ALSO NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. HAVE BACKED OFF TEMPS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT ASSUMING CONVECTION AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ARENT EXTENSIVE THEN IT WILL STILL BE A VERY HOT DAY MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 By the time the next potential heat wave (after this one) surges back we will likely be into August. While significant heat of 100+ would certainly be possible, many areas will likely have had significant drought relief. That combined with a slightly lower sun angle may make reaching the century mark a little more difficult by then. My gut feeling is we'll see at least one day squeak in with little cloud cover (I'm thinking Wed here). That may be our only shot at 100+ here. Tomorrow already looks out, and with the active mid-level jet right overhead on Mon I'm thinking the NAM forecast of 105+ is out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 It's looking more and more likely that debris clouds will be an issue once again tomorrow for the area. Mid 80's-around 90 is probably a good call for now, for the DVN to Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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