Hoosier Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Starting to see multi-model op/ensemble signals of another enhanced heat wave setting in during the week of July 16. At this time it appears it may not be quite as intense as the last bout at least early on but dry ground should continue to be a large factor especially in areas that don't receive appreciable rain from the upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 No replies? Everyone burned out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 No replies? Everyone burned out? To a crackly crunch! Edit to add: We were on vacation in SW MI and the lake water was in the 90's, as were the pools. Getting wet colled you off... for about three minutes. Thankfully there was AC but the difference when walking in/out was breathtaking. It rained for about 2 minutes the two weeks we were there. Temps hit over 100 on like three days and lows stayed in the mid to high 70's. The last thing I want to think about is higher temps again, but I'm pretty sure we'll get baked some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I had been noticing it on many of the GFS ensemble members for a few days, but wasn't going to say anything, because I'm in denial. lol Many of the members have depicted a nice ring of fire set up, especially beginning around next Wednesday (18th). I say nice because it appears to be a little south of the previous ridge, hitting some of the parched areas with more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 A few afternoon AFDs LOT: THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS INCREASING TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF...AT LEAST THROUGH LAST NIGHT'S 00Z RUN WAS INDICATING STRONG UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING WITH AN AXIS OF WARM AIR ALOFT POKING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE NEW 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...BUT IS STILL ADVERTISING VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 22C ALONG WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 28-30C. WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER MIXING...THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS WERE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...EVEN WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE INCONSISTENCY...IT HAS BEEN THE BETTER VERIFYING LONGER RANGE MODEL WITH RESPECT TO EXTREME HEAT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...RATHER THAN TOTALLY BUYING INTO THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. DVN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND A FRONT SLIDING DOWN INTO MINNESOTA SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAT OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS. WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS...AND MAY NEED TO FURTHER INCREASE THEM SHOULD THIS SIGNAL HOLD UP IN THE MODEL DATA. DRY WEATHER AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY...WITH POSSIBLE 100S IF THE WARMER ECMWF IS TRUE. ILX HEIGHTS BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 20C OR HIGHER BY 00Z TUE. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S AS 500-1000 MB THICKNESSES OVER 100 METERS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS LAST WEEKS HEAT WAVE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS AFTN DEWPOINTS NEAR 80F...WHILE THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT AND THE LIMITED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...DRIER ECMWF DOES BRING DEWPOINTS UP TO AROUND 70F WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LAST WEEK. MKX LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT IS ON. 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF A BIT FROM 00Z RUN...BUT OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WARMER 925 MB TEMPS. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO NOT GET RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH MID TO UPPER 90S. TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THIS WOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY...WITH OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR 105 DEGREE HEAT IN THE WEST. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEMNH SUPPORT THIS...BUT 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF AND LOOKS MORE LIKE 95-100. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BECAUSE WE MIGHT HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING HEAT HEADLINES AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Late July to early August is the *normal* time for a few scorchers. Nothing out of the ordinary if this does occur. Of course I. along with everyone else would prefer the ridiculous stuff stay away. Not gonna hold my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Bring it on, MKX is already forecasting 96 for Tuesday and 95 for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Following the end of the intense heat on Saturday, in my locale and other areas that have not had much rain in the last week to ten days (RFD -- another good example), it's been getting to around 90 degrees in the afternoons if the sun is out about half the day -- a few degrees cooler if mainly cloudy (e.g., yesterday here), a few degrees warmer if sunnier (e.g., Monday here). Drought has really embellished the dryness of the current airmass. Now, if the ridge out west builds eastward, leading to higher heights locally, potential high temperatures on a given day are only going to increase from the current average base of 89-91 degrees. That is, 12z Euro-progged temperatures of 22-23 C at 850 mb and 28-30 C at 925 mb on top of dry soils would certainly support surface temperatures from the mid 90's to around 100 in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. And, that is keeping in mind that today's 12z Euro run backed off slightly on the heat for that period, basically by flattening the ridge; so far, there has been more run-to-run continuity toward a (even) hotter solution. On the other hand, there are clues that this next intense-hot spell may be accompanied by more humid air, so that lowers the potential slightly, so to speak (while making conditions that much more uncomfortable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 La Crosse says more record heat next week likely..go with the Euro..bake away...everything is brown...everything will be dead in 10 days...end of the world 2012... no but this really sucks..i haven't watered this much ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 So glad I'm not a prisoner to a million planters like my dad. My days of having no life in summer because I'm afraid of the plants dying are long over. I gave up on watering the lawn to except for the front where the dog has the run I'm keeping it lush and soft to chill on. I'm a pube hair away from being in the sick Tropical camp and hoping for the hottest and driest summer if its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Brutal pattern rain wise for virtually everyone west of the Appalachians and east of the Rockies...boring as hell as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I had been noticing it on many of the GFS ensemble members for a few days, but wasn't going to say anything, because I'm in denial. lol Many of the members have depicted a nice ring of fire set up, especially beginning around next Wednesday (18th). I say nice because it appears to be a little south of the previous ridge, hitting some of the parched areas with more precip. I'll definitely go for that! Given that northern WI and the UP of Michigan were in the line of fire last time - a 200 mile shift would be needed to put this area under the gun. Hopefully will get some rain before the ridge sets up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 This summer has been a weenie dream for me. Probably never see one again like it in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 The Euro keeps on showing high dewpoints, some of them are likely embelished. If we get the heat, the Dewpoints will only be high if there is some GOM moisture advecting to the North. Even if that's the case, brown ground and low-soil moisture emboldens the likely hood for decent heat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 Full blown death ridge toward the end of the 00z Euro run and pretty warm before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Full blown death ridge toward the end of the 00z Euro run and pretty warm before that. You're just full of good news. <sarcasm> I'm banking on anything the Euro says this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 We all knew it was coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Well, I guess we better enjoy this cooler & rainy(hopefully) weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Toronto has issued a special weather statement for all of southern Ontario AN EXTENDED HOT, RAIN-FREE EPISODE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE LAZY HAZY DOG DAYS OF SUMMER HAVE SETTLED INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. AND WE'RE ONLY IN THE MIDDLE PART OF JULY WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE OFFING. YET ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE MERCURY TOPPED OFF IN THE LOW THIRTIES IN MOST REGIONS TODAY, WITH EXPECTED READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER ON FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HUMIDEX VALUES MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 40 THRESHOLD IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY VERY WELL PEAK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE THIRTIES AND HUMIDEX READINGS IN THE MID FORTIES BEFORE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ARRIVES. TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE BUT WILL CREEP HIGHER OVER THE COMING NIGHTS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ON THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE RAIN RELIEF FROM THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO (ESPECIALLY SERIOUS FROM GUELPH AND BRANTFORD THROUGH LONDON). A SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT UNLIKELY FOR ANY GIVEN LOCALE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE TORRID TEMPERATURES, BUT MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ON ANOTHER NOTE, IF THIS SIMILAR PATTERN HOLDS FOR ANOTHER TWO WEEKS THIS JULY MAY GIVE JULY 2011 A RUN FOR THE MONEY FOR THE HOTTEST MEAN TEMPERATURE (AVERAGE OF THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES) FOR SOME AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 LOT bumped temps up to 96/98/98 Sun-Tues. ORD topped out at 91 yesterday. It's up to 90 there now...27th 90+ day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 This summer has been a weenie dream for me. Probably never see one again like it in my life. What's funny is you probably said that about the last two Summers. In any event, the tide has turned. We had several consecutive snowy winters, now we're seeing several consecutive hot summers. It'll turn again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Looks like the Euro backed off on the heat late next week/weekend. Still no signs of any extreme heat returning, but it still looks hot in general through most of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Except Sun-Tue the heat has been canceled for the rest of the week. 95° for Monday predicted, which is intense in my book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Except when the heat "backs off," it still seems to get into the upper 80's to around 90. That's hot in my book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Except when the heat "backs off," it still seems to get into the upper 80's to around 90. That's hot in my book! Haha yep. Don't see any extended 100+ streaks in the near future though. One of the local TV station mets does a 14 day extended forecast every night at 10pm. Last night he had 3 100 degree days in a row next weekend. Was surprised to see that since he's usually fairly conservative. I'm sure that will be gone on tonight's outlook though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Haha yep. Don't see any extended 100+ streaks in the near future though. One of the local TV station mets does a 14 day extended forecast every night at 10pm. Last night he had 3 100 degree days in a row next weekend. Was surprised to see that since he's usually fairly conservative. I'm sure that will be gone on tonight's outlook though. I still think the jury's out on next weekend. Indeed, the Euro has backed off in the most recent run or two on the heat, but let's see if this becomes a lasting, run-to-run trend. That's also not to preclude the possibility that it might come back on Monday of the week after next or something -- that is, be delayed in returning. Even that said, it may never reach 100 again this summer. For what it's worth, Skilling was still suggesting in tonight's report (and seemingly emphasizing more than he had) that the heat will probably build back in next weekend after the mid-week spell of "mild" weather (for which he was still carrying low 90's). All this aside, I'm getting sick of the hot weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Looks like some places in SE Wisconsin might hit 100 on Monday and maybe Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Looks like maybe a shot at 100 on Tuesday for northern Illinois/eastern Iowa. Monday could come close too, but the NAM and Euro look hottest on Tue before the cool front hits Tuesday night. 850 temps only warm into the 20-22C range, but with the drought conditions we will probably tack on another 2-5 degrees more than we would have normally. One limiting factor could be diurnal cumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2012 Author Share Posted July 15, 2012 Looks like maybe a shot at 100 on Tuesday for northern Illinois/eastern Iowa. Monday could come close too, but the NAM and Euro look hottest on Tue before the cool front hits Tuesday night. 850 temps only warm into the 20-22C range, but with the drought conditions we will probably tack on another 2-5 degrees more than we would have normally. One limiting factor could be diurnal cumulus. I think we're going to give it a run on Tuesday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2012 Author Share Posted July 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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