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Summer update II: As of July 10, SNE region's 4 primary climo sites are all solidly above normal nearing mid July

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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I also don't like the idea of stripping the long term from NWS offices and having HPC handle it all. I like to read the differences in opinion from across our region.

I do like having the NWS only handle short term. They really don't need to be spending as much time as they do in the D3.5-D7 period. Just let HPC do it.

1 extra forecaster on short term can add a lot of value I think... whether it's coordinating with EM/media... working on a specific aspect of a severe wx event, etc.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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Wonder if they are thinking of eventually phasing out all local NWS offices and having HPC handle or just automating everything. Already starting it with the warnings being auto sent to some types of phones.

?

They're not automating anything with that... just another means of dissemination.

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dendrite

dendrite

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I do like having the NWS only handle short term. They really don't need to be spending as much time as they do in the D3.5-D7 period. Just let HPC do it.

1 extra forecaster on short term can add a lot of value I think... whether it's coordinating with EM/media... working on a specific aspect of a severe wx event, etc.

I suppose that's the upside and the point behind it, but I would think that most of the time the weather is boring enough that they wouldn't really need another person on short term. Don't they already ignore long term during significant/severe wx?
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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I suppose that's the upside and the point behind it, but I would think that most of the time the weather is boring enough that they wouldn't really need another person on short term. Don't they already ignore long term during significant/severe wx?

Yeah I think just getting it off their hands makes sense. You can have the HPC put out pretty accurate forecasts in the D4-D7 period with little reduction in service... especially since most of the time they're using a 70/30 blend of Euro/GFS. I think having an extra forecaster FT to handle other short term tasks makes sense... and is the biggest value added to the public.

I've said this many times before... but without adequate media outreach the NWS reaches a much smaller number of end users than they would with better outreach. Some offices and regions are better than others.

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Logan11

Logan11

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Whenever I hear that song I think of our May 1979 trip to Orlando, Disney, etc..... First time I ever stayed at a Days Inn. :)

Feels muggy here today, but with all the clouds probably nothing too extreme. Yesterday hit 85.

Sure it's been above normal in July, but personally I wouldn't waste my time arguing about it. I'm just passing the days until this crappy Summer over.

Joe??

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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As things become more automated that means the need for less people. I don't think it would shock anyone if they phased out the human element from local offices

Yeah but people aren't really involved in dissemination of the warnings now... so this doesn't eliminate the need for humans.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I suppose that's the upside and the point behind it, but I would think that most of the time the weather is boring enough that they wouldn't really need another person on short term. Don't they already ignore long term during significant/severe wx?

How many times in an AFD to we read "refer to NHC for statements on Irene" in the long term or "SPC has placed us in slight risk" with no other discussion. Much of the outsourcing of adverse/dangerous weather forecasting to regional offices has already taken place. Where the NWS adds value is forecasting the few events a year that pose the biggest threat to life and property. I'd rather the focus be more on short term and outreach.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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Pete... one solution could be to have the Skiing Thread on the Upstate sub forum. Call it the "Northeast Ski Thread" of the "NY/NE Snow Thread". I don't even think we have a mod. that regularly frequents our quiet sub forum. We do what we want. :)

That's a easier logistically anyway than going off the wx side onto off topic all the time.

72/67, already into the brutal low 70's. Time for some chores and then recreation. Hopefully we won't all burn up today. Looks like some healthy shower activity in WNY/PA. It'll be great if that moves east later today, once all the fun has been had. Get out there people, do something fun outdoors!!!!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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How many times in an AFD to we read "refer to NHC for statements on Irene" in the long term or "SPC has placed us in slight risk" with no other discussion. Much of the outsourcing of adverse/dangerous weather forecasting to regional offices has already taken place. Where the NWS adds value is forecasting the few events a year that pose the biggest threat to life and property. I'd rather the focus be more on short term and outreach.

I feel like the long term is more of the refer to this and that, as compared to years prior. Some of that may have been related to forecasters like Drag who enjoyed talking about the long term outlook.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Sunshine has broken out here on the gold coast a very pleasant surprise indeed, finally got to pay some attention to my own gardens this morning, waiting for Julie and Claire to get home from there trip.

Looks like we will be blessed with yet another beach day in this glorious summer, have a fantastic day folks and get out and enjoy the weather:)

80

mostly sunny

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Logan11

Logan11

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Looks great Joe. :)

Lots of wild flowers dot my fields now despite the dryness...daisies, black eyes susans, buttercups, birds foot treefoil with their yellow flowers all over, clover flowering, Queens Anns Lace starting.... The natural wild flowers apparently can aclimate to this wx on their own. Quite a few others that I can't ID...

Sunshine has broken out here on the gold coast a very pleasant surprise indeed, finally got to pay some attention to my own gardens this morning, waiting for Julie and Claire to get home from there trip.

Looks like we will be blessed with yet another beach day in this glorious summer, have a fantastic day folks and get out and enjoy the weather:)

80

mostly sunny

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dendrite

dendrite

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huh...i guess i misunderstood how the product was derived...i always assumed the gridded MOS product was simply MAV/MEX populating a database

I think there is more that goes into it since the gridpoint distance is too short to be covered by all of the coop/metar mos sites.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/gmos/amsshortcourse_200601.ppt

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Looks great Joe. :)

Lots of wild flowers dot my fields now despite the dryness...daisies, black eyes susans, buttercups, birds foot treefoil with their yellow flowers all over, clover flowering, Queens Anns Lace starting.... The natural wild flowers apparently can aclimate to this wx on their own. Quite a few others that I can't ID...

Hey Rick!

I enjoying creating live meadows for clients one of the reasons because using wildflowers is inexpensive and they are very drought tolerant, I have a wildflower bed on the side of my house and never water it!

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Looks great Joe. :)

Lots of wild flowers dot my fields now despite the dryness...daisies, black eyes susans, buttercups, birds foot treefoil with their yellow flowers all over, clover flowering, Queens Anns Lace starting.... The natural wild flowers apparently can aclimate to this wx on their own. Quite a few others that I can't ID...

WIldflowers are wonderful and a fantastic way to cover space, they are mostly perennials come back every year, need no watering and if you take the time in the late fall to spread the seed from the dying cones will come back more glourious than ever not to mention how easy they are to sow.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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I think there is more that goes into it since the gridpoint distance is too short to be covered by all of the coop/metar mos sites.

http://www.nws.noaa....urse_200601.ppt

cool....thanks.

i'll have to look at that.

i always assumed it was mav/mex with some formula that just adjusted between the sites similar to populating a model grid. and then forecaster input if needed/warranted.

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