Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Summer update II: As of July 10, SNE region's 4 primary climo sites are all solidly above normal nearing mid July

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I would agree with Ray that shear and dry air entrainment are more of a detriment to tropical cyclones. Sure skin temps may be a bit warmer which may help a tiny bit, but the layer of warm SSTs would liely not be enough to prevent the upwelling and cooling ahead of the storm.

The amount of energy going into tropical cyclones going from 86-87F is much more than what you would get going from 70-71F.

yeah agree...

unless the thing is crawling along at like 10 knots...which is so rare...the SST issue becomes rather irrelevant once north of Hatteras considering the traditional recurve track and accounting for the NE bend the GS takes from there. .

you'd have to have an entirely different look to the mid-atlantic/SNE SST profile to have it be an issue. 1-4F here and there in the top meter or so isn't going to cut it.

the one caveat would be a storm doing something like edouard did in 96 and crawling due N up 70W...waters are warmer out there further N so i guess if the near shore waters were warmer...*maybe* that would help.

one thing i do know though...this water is making for higher dews. and it blows. LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

People have to realize why TC are sensitive to shear. Updraft strength in TC are much weaker than the updraft speeds in our typical tstms. It's related to instability. TC environment generally is not unstable, so strong convergence usually drives the whole process. Throw in shear and you rip apart updrafts.

Yea, the latent heat from the sea needs to be converted to energy and evacuated in the upper levels....if sheer is inhibiting the abilty of the updrafts to transport it there, then we have weenies have a problem....we are left with newbies whacking it to red sst charts in vain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

yeah agree...

unless the thing is crawling along at like 10 knots...which is so rare...the SST issue becomes rather irrelevant once north of Hatteras considering the traditional recurve track and accounting for the NE bend the GS takes from there. .

you'd have to have an entirely different look to the mid-atlantic/SNE SST profile to have it be an issue. 1-4F here and there in the top meter or so isn't going to cut it.

the one caveat would be a storm doing something like edouard did in 96 and crawling due N up 70W...waters are warmer out there further N so i guess if the near shore waters were warmer...*maybe* that would help.

one thing i do know though...this water is making for higher dews. and it blows. LOL.

Yeah something like that where even the inflow of the storm is over warmer waters, it may help a bit. being closer to a better source region. What a tease Edouard was. I remember getting excited over every weenie wobble NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yea, the latent heat from the sea needs to be converted to energy and evacuated in the upper levels....if sheer is inhibiting the abilty of the updrafts to transport it there, then we have weenies have a problem....we are left with newbies whacking it to red sst charts in vein.

:lol:

this board is better when you post. LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yea, the latent heat from the sea needs to be converted to energy and evacuated in the upper levels....if sheer is inhibiting the abilty of the updrafts to transport it there, then we have weenies have a problem....we are left with newbies whacking it to red sst charts in vein.

They always will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yeah something like that where even the inflow of the storm is over warmer waters, it may help a bit. being closer to a better source region. What a tease Edouard was. I remember getting excited over every weenie wobble NW.

yeah i don't even think in that case it would really matter much. 68F/72F/77F...meh.

that storm was actually pretty good out here. 'cane force gusts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

yeah i don't even think in that case it would really matter much. 68F/72F/77F...meh.

that storm was actually pretty good out here. 'cane force gusts.

The best action actually came on NW winds when it pulled away. We had gusts past 50 on the s-shore. You guys did well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Not only are ssts often rendered irrelevant by the upper levels, but there is a misperception that the skin temp of the sea is the main energy source; its simply not.

I prefer to view OHC (oceanic heat content) charts because they illustrate what TRUELY dictates intensity when the upper levels are in order.

The actual surface is not that big of a deal, but HOW DEEPLY that warm water extends toward the sea floor IS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Is it me or does the seabreeze this summer feel like it doesn't cool much at all. Reminds me of NJ southward. It may well be a function of the SSTA we're experiencing this summer in our neck of the woods. I was at Crane Beach on 6/24 and you SST seemed to be heading ino the mid 60s then...very early.

OT but the upcoming winter is still enigmatic to me and hasn't revealed its hand as did last year (before I fell for the tubby squirrels) and 2010-11 (which I was very confident on from early summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

80/62

Just like that the lawns have burned out and those without sprinkler systems are basically dormant, sometimes its not always the heat, but sunday through yesterday the hot sun combined with ultra low dews really robbed the soil of moisture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...