Summer update II: As of July 10, SNE region's 4 primary climo sites are all solidly above normal nearing mid July

[Typhoon Tip]

Yes.

First, there are those that may try to argue the significance of it either way, based upon their personal agendas (then persuading their perception of things), but the hard facts are as follows as of the 10th of July.

ORH: +4.5

HFD: +4.3

PVD: +3.7

BOS: +4.6

Going forward ... Using the trends of the operational guidance against the backdrop of the GFS -derived teleconnectors (and those inferred by the Euro ensemble mean synoptics through D10), there doesn't appear to be any reason to assume these values above will significantly reduce. In fact, they may gain some positive departure.

As to the dailies, there is an interesting limitation to how hot it will get in the upper OV, N MA and NE regions. As we near D4, there is a unanimously agreed upon vestigial shear axis (the remains of filling L/W trough near the MV longitudes) that takes place as the era of subtropical ridge expansion gets under way. This can also be seen in the AO/NAO suggestion of pulling the westerlies northward with there respective indices rising out in time. This shear axis will likely prevent major 850mb warm from penetrating up into said areas. However, with heights rising in association with the Bermuda ridge expanding over land, and some +16 or +17C type air supported, nevertheless some torridity should likely result as the 594dm height node temporarily burgeons, then flattens out from D4- to about D6 or so. After that, the operational Euro and to some lesser degree, the GFS (the less trustworthy CMC agrees with the Euro), shows the shear axis at last filling, and a more coherent subtropical ridge results from approximately 110/120 W through the west Atlantic Basin. Interestingly, we see the Euro/CMC then allowing the more meaningful 850mb heated air then move along in the westerlies around the N wall of the ridge. Details aside, that's the general gist whether it all works out that way or not.

However, having all the majors flagging retreat of the westerlies, going above normal is higher confidence as we sweep over the next 10 days.

This in total will likely make July weighted as an above normal month, stressing the ability to recede nearing months end. In total, I see a (modeslty cool June + a moderately to well above normal July) / 2.0 = above normal summer, nearing August first.

[amarshall]

I'm a complete noob and pay no attention to me if this is slightly OT but anecdotally the ocean temperature off the coast of Massachusetts is warmer than anyone can remember in July.

I'm third generation of owning a beach house in Marshfield and water temps in the 70s in early july in Cape Cod Bay is unheard of going back to to at least my grandmother.

[CoastalWx]

I'm a complete noob and pay no attention to me if this is slightly OT but anecdotally the ocean temperature off the coast of Massachusetts is warmer than anyone can remember in July.

I'm third generation of owning a beach house in Marshfield and water temps in the 70s in early july in Cape Cod Bay is unheard of going back to to at least my grandmother.

I can vouch for that. The waters have been really warm lately. Some of it is due to gentle aftn seabreezes near the shore, but as you said...I think even the deeper waters are much warmer than normal. It all started from winter.

[MainePhotog]

I can vouch for that. The waters have been really warm lately. Some of it is due to gentle aftn seabreezes near the shore, but as you said...I think even the deeper waters are much warmer than normal. It all started from winter.

Unless there is a well below normal August - November temp wise, am I correct in thinking those warmer waters can hurt coastal areas this winter, especially during the early part of winter? Warmer waters = coastal taint?

[moneypitmike]

Just think of the impact on coatal fronts. Ray will be on pins and needles and Kevin's perpetual question to the mets will be whether his forecasted pinging will changes to rain.

[MaineJayhawk]

Warmer water .... tropical system incoming??

[CoastalWx]

Unless there is a well below normal August - November temp wise, am I correct in thinking those warmer waters can hurt coastal areas this winter, especially during the early part of winter? Warmer waters = coastal taint?

Well a cool Fall can erase those departures rather easily. It's way too early to even think about that. Besides, it doesn't act to really push the coastal front inland, just enhance it. There is also a lot that goes into determining rain and snow. Temps aloft have a lot to do with that as well.

[amarshall]

If water temps stay like this and a tropical system moves north, there won't be much weakening, that's for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would not worry about positive sst anomalies having an impact on winter at this stage.....odds are it will not take long to get back on par with climo. The ssts are very changeable.

[Brian5671]

If water temps stay like this and a tropical system moves north, there won't be much weakening, that's for sure.

definitely a concern....

[40/70 Benchmark]

If water temps stay like this and a tropical system moves north, there won't be much weakening, that's for sure.

SSTs are one of the most overrated facets of meterology with regard to their significance, as scooter just eleuded to, the upper levels perdominately drive the bus....both dictating precip type/intensity, and the health of tropical systems.

They are crucial to mid latitude and tropical cyclones.

[CoastalWx]

SSTs are one of the most overrated facets of meterology with regard to their significance, as scooter just eleuded to, the upper levels perdominately drive the bus....both dictating precip type/intensity, and the health of tropical systems.

They are crucial to mid latitude and tropical cyclones.

I'm gonna look at something..hold on....

[Damage In Tolland]

TORCH!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd still bet on ample dry air entrainment and shear having a larger impact on the intensity of any cyclone traversing the mid latitudes, than I would a +~5* sst anomaly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm gonna look at something..hold on....

Alright, at first Kev's nude, lunchtime sunbathing was funny, but its grown tiresome.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would not worry about positive sst anomalies having an impact on winter at this stage.....odds are it will not take long to get back on par with climo. The ssts are very changeable.

Yup

[CoastalWx]

A co-worker of mine did a thesis on what would happen to SNE snowfall if we increased SSTs by 1C across the board. He also took a series of significant storms that had a certain track within so many miles from ACK. Basically, what was found was that the coastal front eas enhanced...in some cases even pushed east a bit..causing heavier precip on the west side of it. This makes sense. He also found that snow tended to decrease a little on the east side of the coastal front. This also makes sense as warming through conduction would cause air passing over the ocean to be a bit warmer.

This should probably be in the winter thread, but that's what it is.

[Damage In Tolland]

Back to summer disco . Wonder if we can pop a few showers/ storms today?

[MainePhotog]

Thanks, folks! Learn something new every day it seems.

[40/70 Benchmark]

A co-worker of mine did a thesis on what would happen to SNE snowfall if we increased SSTs by 1C across the board. He also took a series of significant storms that had a certain track within so many miles from ACK. Basically, what was found was that the coastal front eas enhanced...in some cases even pushed east a bit..causing heavier precip on the west side of it. This makes sense. He also found that snow tended to decrease a little on the east side of the coastal front. This also makes sense as warming through conduction would cause air passing over the ocean to be a bit warmer.

This should probably be in the winter thread, but that's what it is.

In other words, the stakes are higher.....that's what I figured.

Anytime you add energy into the atmosphere, the risk and the reward is greater.

[CoastalWx]

I would agree with Ray that shear and dry air entrainment are more of a detriment to tropical cyclones. Sure skin temps may be a bit warmer which may help a tiny bit, but the layer of warm SSTs would liely not be enough to prevent the upwelling and cooling ahead of the storm.

The amount of energy going into tropical cyclones going from 86-87F is much more than what you would get going from 70-71F.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'd still bet on ample dry air entrainment and shear having a larger impact on the intensity of any cyclone traversing the mid latitudes, than I would a +~5* sst anomaly.

without question.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Back to dude disco . Wonder if we can pop a few outtie-tents today?

My money is on Scott.

[CoastalWx]

In other words, the stakes are higher.....that's what I figured.

Anytime you add energy into the atmosphere, the risk and the reward is greater.

Yeah basically. I mean sure a storm could wrap in a bit more with a tighter thermal gradient, but it doesn't mean that a low that normally would go near ACK, ends up over Will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would agree with Ray that shear and dry air entrainment are more of a detriment to tropical cyclones. Sure skin temps may be a bit warmer which may help a tiny bit, but the layer of warm SSTs would liely not be enough to prevent the upwelling and cooling ahead of the storm.

The amount of energy going into tropical cyclones going from 86-87F is much more than what you would get going from 70-71F.

The upper atmosphere drives the bus......

Its akin to debating how much drive you would gain by using a high octance fuel, while under the hood lies a blown engine....irrelevant.

The issue of ssts/fuel becomes relevant if and only if the upper atmosphere/engine are in order.

[CoastalWx]

The upper atmosphere drives the bus......

Its akin to debating how much drive you would gain bu using a high octance fuel, while under the hood lies blown engine....irrelevant.

The issue of ssts/fuel becomes relevant if and only if the upper atmosphere/engine are in order.

Bingo, hence the tropics where low shear could cause explosive development if SSTs are conducive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah basically. I mean sure a storm could wrap in a bit more with a tighter thermal gradient, but it doesn't mean that a low that normally would go near ACK, ends up over Will.

Not necessarily, but the odds of that occuring are increased with greater amplification, obviously.

[CoastalWx]

People have to realize why TC are sensitive to shear. Updraft strength in TC are much weaker than the updraft speeds in our typical tstms. It's related to instability. TC environment generally is not unstable, so strong convergence usually drives the whole process. Throw in shear and you rip apart updrafts.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dewpoints

[CoastalWx]

Not necessarily, but the odds of that occuring are increased with greater amplification, obviously.

Well yeah, but it seems like the risk is something not to lose sleep over. Anyways, it makes for interesting talk. Like you said...that is the last thing on my mind when thinking about next winter.