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July 13-16 OV Rain Event


snowlover2

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Thunderstorms in MN and IA look to be headed straight towards us. MKX bumped our precip chances up to 50% for tonight

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

351 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER IS

ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

PWS ARE FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS REGION FROM 1.3-1.6 INCHES WITH 1000-500

MB RH OF 60-70 PERCENT. THE MODELS TAKE THIS HIGHER PWS AND RH INTO

SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY AFTERNOON WHEN MODEL PWS ARE AT 1.5 INCHES WITH

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO SPREAD EAST FOR TNT. THE VERY DRY SOIL

CONDITIONS AND SFC AIR SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT

TO SOME DEGREE TODAY BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE MOIST ENOUGH

FROM ABOUT 6 KFT AND ABOVE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN WI TNT AND SHOULD BE CLOSE

ENOUGH FOR GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOIST

ATMOSPHERE AND MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE THAT IS WEAKLY CAPPED FROM

ABOUT 6 KFT AND ABOVE. THUS WENT WITH 50 POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI

THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 POPS EVERYWHERE FOR TNT...BUT WOULD NOT BE

SURPRISED IF HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED. SO SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE

DROUGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE BRIEF.

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Tomorrow looks to be the best chance for awhile... I just thought today we might of had a chance, but wasn't to be..

Oh well, Mr. Jack & Coke is helping me handle today's disappointment.. :beer:

At this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

Oh, and cheers.

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This is really funny. Hadn't seen rain for four weeks, traveled to the Quad Cities yesterday to see the John Deere Classic today. We avoided the major rain (which was good), but back home we had a heavy thunderstorm and over an inch of rain in many areas. Last year the biggest severe weather and heavy rain event happened while I was in Maine. I guess I shouldn't take trips anymore lol.

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one of the better soakings of the year here yesterday...probably a little over an inch...ground was still soaking wet this morning.

Congrats. It seems downtown Chicago has been the hotbed of weather activity in the recent past. An inch of rain in this pattern is significant.

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Congrats. It seems downtown Chicago has been the hotbed of weather activity in the recent past. An inch of rain in this pattern is significant.

It's dry no doubt but we've managed just enough convective events right as things are about to get desperate.

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Sounds like a similar setup to yesterday. Lake breeze and instability should be starting up soon. Convection will probably be a bit later due to the cloud deck this morning.

LOT

FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALTO STRATUS OVER WESTERN

IL/EASTERN MO IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY RETARD

HEATING TODAY LIMITING INSTABILITY. WHERE MIXED SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR

EXPECT SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT

RENEWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH

SEEMS LIKE IT MAY TEND TO FAVOR OUR EASTERN CWA AND POTENTIALLY

ALONG LAKE BREEZE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION LIKELY TO

GRADUALLY WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS TROUGH

MIGRATES EASTWARD.

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