H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Why did the monkey fall out of the tree? because the great dane hit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 And my question hasn't been answered - would a slight risk have been better than a moderate risk for our area? The answer to that IMO is yes. Are you arguing that a 45% chance of a wind report within 25 mi of a location was not warrented? Because that is the criterion for moderate risk for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Why did the monkey fall out of the tree? Depends on the wind gust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Depends on the wind gust... incorrect. Because it was dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 An event can underperform or overperform based on expectations of forecasters but it cannot bust if there is less than a 100% chance. Come on guys...this is really embarassing...get a grip (i'm talking in general) Oh I know what you're saying. Every single person who has ever used the word "bust" here and on Eastern was utterly wrong unless "100%" was written (and how often does that happen?) Why is it only being called out in this instance? Actually I don't think we can technically use the words "overperform" and "underperform" because there is no concrete expectation either way. Just a "chance." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Depends on the wind gust... Andy's was better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 If a monkey falls out of a tree is that a severe wind report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Oh I know what you're saying. Every single person who has ever used the word "bust" here and on Eastern was utterly wrong unless "100%" was written (and how often does that happen?) Why is it only being called out in this instance? Actually I don't think we can technically use the words "overperform" and "underperform" because there is no concrete expectation either way. Just a "chance." It's not...we've had this same discussion for years on American and eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Andy's was better... Ive already won this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 If a monkey falls out of a tree is that a severe wind report? Put metfan up there and let's find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ive already won this thread indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Oh I know what you're saying. Every single person who has ever used the word "bust" here and on Eastern was utterly wrong unless "100%" was written (and how often does that happen?) Why is it only being called out in this instance? Actually I don't think we can technically use the words "overperform" and "underperform" because there is no concrete expectation either way. Just a "chance." But it was a 45% chance of severe winds and only a 5% chance at tornadoes yesterday. Big difference with saying high chances of 70%+ or 90% chance at 6"+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I don't know if anybody mentioned this, but Lonnie Quinn from Channel 7 NY bet his career on strong thunderstorms for everybody last night. I assume some will point to the tornado in upstate NY to verify their forecasts. It gave me a chuckle at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Put metfan up there and let's find out. I would fall off the tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The verification of probability forecasts is multi-dimensional....bottom line -- meteorologists have a great job. One of the fields where verification is so complex. http://www.eumetcal....s1/uos1_ko5.htm http://www.nssl.noaa...robability.html Is that the classier version of "Meteorologist - the only job where you can be wrong all the time and keep your job! har har" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 It's not...we've had this same discussion for years on American and eastern. Well I can't recall such fervor on both sides regarding storms' bust verification. Maybe snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well I can't recall such fervor on both sides regarding storms' bust verification. Maybe snow amounts. Simple Answer: This has been a boring weather year. No hurricanes, no snow. We are ready for some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well I can't recall such fervor on both sides regarding storms' bust verification. Maybe snow amounts. its happened in severe threads frequently...there was a thread on the june 6th, 2010 event, too. Yeah, I believe we've discussed it for nor'easters too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Simple Answer: This has been a boring weather year. No hurricanes, no snow. We are ready for some action. It has been boring since the Halloween storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So we basically had a 40 page thread to discuss the 45% chance of being within 25 MILES of a severe report. Any prefessional gambler in Vegas would never waste his time or take those odds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So we basically had a 40 page thread to discuss the 45% chance of being within 25 MILES of a severe report. Any prefessional gambler in Vegas would never waste his time or take those odds lol. haha. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 interesting. Here is a write up on a microburt and downburst event. Notice how the nws separates TREE damage and STRUCTURAL damage in their write up two separate times. Are we really sure that every downed limb and branch counts as a severe episode? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=06_27_2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So we basically had a 40 page thread to discuss the 45% chance of being within 25 MILES of a severe report. Any prefessional gambler in Vegas would never waste his time or take those odds lol. Hey, no one ever said this was an emotionally lucrative field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well technically, I think the 45% means 45% or greater, but not more than 60%, since that is the next criterion, as 50 and 55% are not used. But with that said, mapgirl's map (pun intended) clearly shows that even under that criteria, the mod risk was clearly warranted. Only the extreme edges of the mod risk were not within the black line. The concentration of wind reports was very high for the most part, and fit the exact nature of a LEWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So we basically had a 40 page thread to discuss the 45% chance of being within 25 MILES of a severe report. Any prefessional gambler in Vegas would never waste his time or take those odds lol. No, basically you had a 40 page thread because most of you are weenies who hump anything that shows something exciting for you. The Trials is complaining today because yesterday he was scared and looked silly while saying it. SNE goes through threads like this all the time, but instead of whining over the lack of weather, they break it down to why it didn't happen that way. Perhaps you all should learn to appreciate what you do get, learn when it is necessary and give applaud to those who deal with difficult weather systems and their forecasts instead of crying because your backyard didn't get a wind gust of 58mph or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 I don't know if anybody mentioned this, but Lonnie Quinn from Channel 7 NY bet his career on strong thunderstorms for everybody last night. I assume some will point to the tornado in upstate NY to verify their forecasts. It gave me a chuckle at least. Agree. I mentioned this in my post on page 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 interesting. Here is a write up on a microburt and downburst event. Notice how the nws separates TREE damage and STRUCTURAL damage in their write up two separate times. Are we really sure that every downed limb and branch counts as a severe episode? http://www.crh.noaa....x/?n=06_27_2010 Well, take this for what it is worth, but here is the damage indicators page fro the new EF Scale for tornadoes. Obviously this is supposed to be for tornadic damage but it provides damage indicators for various structures, the degree of damage, and the expected strength of the winds. Check it out. http://www.spc.noaa....e/ef-scale.html For softwood trees, 1-3" diameter branches could be brought down by winds of approximately 70 mph, and could be completely uprooted by winds of about 85 mph. Those are the "expected" wind speeds, but the lower bounds for each of those are 48 mph and 62 mph, respectively. Now obviously dead trees could be uprooted/broken more easily and I'm sure a wet ground could contribute as well, but wind speeds to cause damage to trees in general may be stronger than you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No, basically you had a 40 page thread because most of you are weenies who hump anything that shows something exciting for you. The Trials is complaining today because yesterday he was scared and looked silly while saying it. SNE goes through threads like this all the time, but instead of whining over the lack of weather, they break it down to why it didn't happen that I'm sorry we are not as good as the SNE'ers. Maybe one day we can approach their awesomeness. However you're talking to the wrong person. I hate severe weather. I couldn't be happier with the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well, take this for what it is worth, but here is the damage indicators page fro the new EF Scale for tornadoes. Obviously this is supposed to be for tornadic damage but it provides damage indicators for various structures, the degree of damage, and the expected strength of the winds. Check it out. http://www.spc.noaa....e/ef-scale.html For softwood trees (oak, maple, etc), 1-3" diameter branches could be brought down by winds of approximately 70 mph, and could be completely uprooted by winds of about 85 mph. Now obviously dead trees could be uprooted/broken more easily and I'm sure a wet ground could contribute as well, but wind speeds to cause damage to trees in general may be stronger than you'd expect. Softwoods are conifers (pine, spruce, etc). Oak and Maple are hardwoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Softwoods are conifers (pine, spruce, etc). Oak and Maple are hardwoods. Oh, you're right - my mistake. I went to post about hardwoods and wrote that, then changed it to softwoods and forgot to change the parenthesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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