ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 A) I am not in here debating bust. I am merely talking about definitions B ) Danbury is 26.95 miles from me, so please, when you say only miles, you better define what you consider "miles" because over 25 miles isn't a walk down the street Danbury, CT on a straight line is 21 miles from your location. But you know what I mean. I wasn't pointing that post to you. Just that there was a pretty severe storm that was very close our area. A small change in trajectory in western Jersey, could've bought that little bowing storm right into the NYC area. But according to people here, then it would still have been a BIG BUST because it still would've only affected a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Thread was over when it was realized that it is technically impossible to bust on a severe storm event. When did mets start using % chance in every forecast. Used to be, chance of showers or "Rain". Now everything is a %...seems like an easy escape route. Probabilistic forecasting has been used for a long time... Chance and likely are both probabilistic terms. The SPC outlooks have always been probabilistic. Anyone who knows science at all understand that probabilistic is the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Danbury, CT on a straight line is 21 miles from your location. But you know what I mean. I wasn't pointing that post to you. Just that there was a pretty severe storm that was very close our area. A small change in trajectory in western Jersey, could've bought that little bowing storm right into the NYC area. But according to people here, then it would still have been a BIG BUST because it still wouuld've only affected a small area. still not "only miles" only miles clearly infers single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Probabilistic forecasting has been used for a long time... Chance and likely are both probabilistic terms. The SPC outlooks have always been probabilistic. Anyone who knows science at all understand that probabilistic is the best way to go. That i understand...i am talking about public forecasts, like on local tv and the newspaper...that is a recent phenomenon. Man, you people think we are stupid eh? Obviously in the met community thats how its done, i meant to the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 still not "only miles" only miles clearly infers single digits. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Good Lord people, are we about to start arguing over what the definition if "is" is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 still not "only miles" only miles clearly infers single digits. I was texting earthlight as that bowing echo was coming east that it would be the best part of the storm and that the rest of the line heading right into NYC looked weaker by the minute. If I was in your location, I would've made the 20 mile run north and chased that bad boy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 How is 6/6/10 not a MUCH bigger bust? I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 That i understand...i am talking about public forecasts, like on local tv and the newspaper...that is a recent phenomenon. Man, you people think we are stupid eh? Obviously in the met community thats how its done, i meant to the general public. I think you need to take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 How is 6/6/10 not a MUCH bigger bust? I just don't get it. It wasn't yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 When they say 90% chance of snow hours before its supposed to snow and nothing falls, is that also not a bust? Technically it's not because the forecast didn't say 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I was texting earthlight as that bowing echo was coming east that it would be the best part of the storm and that the rest of the line heading right into NYC looked weaker by the minute. If I was in your location, I would've made the 20 mile run north and chased that bad boy!!!! If I wanted to be a storm chaser, i would have been a storm chaser. I prefer a glass of wine, my wife, and the golf channel to driving in my car to see a storm. And you said straight line, highways dont work in a straight line, its 1 hour by car to that location. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think you need to take a break. huh? If i were to make a post like that, it would be removed...seems like a cheap shot...mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 lol If he was smart, he would have used the fairfield of 70mph winds, that is a little over 16 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 When they say 90% chance of snow hours before its supposed to snow and nothing falls, is that also not a bust? Technically it's not because the forecast didn't say 100%. It's over man. Its a cleanup operation at this point. Just like the work LIPA, Con ED and such are doing right now to restore our power...oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 When they say 90% chance of snow hours before its supposed to snow and nothing falls, is that also not a bust? Technically it's not because the forecast didn't say 100%. An event can underperform or overperform based on expectations of forecasters but it cannot bust if there is less than a 100% chance. Come on guys...this is really embarassing...get a grip (i'm talking in general) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 huh? If i were to make a post like that, it would be removed...seems like a cheap shot...mods? I got cheap shots from HM. O well, life goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 An event can underperform or overperform based on expectations of forecasters but it cannot bust if there is less than a 100% chance. Come on guys...this is really embarassing...get a grip (i'm talking in general) So then the title of the thread should be' Did the 7/26 event under-perform or over-perform, or just right. I think we know how that would turn out. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 If he was smart, he would have used the fairfield of 70mph winds, that is a little over 16 miles. still not single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 still not single digits but he would have sounded better than saying only miles from that report than one clearly on the other side of the pretty big county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The verification of probability forecasts is multi-dimensional....bottom line -- meteorologists have a great job. One of the fields where verification is so complex. http://www.eumetcal.org/resources/ukmeteocal/temp/msgcal/www/english/msg/ver_prob_forec/uos1/uos1_ko5.htm http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/prob/Probability.html "An important property of probability forecasts is that single forecasts using probability have no such clear sense of "right" and "wrong." That is, if it rains on a 10 percent PoP forecast, is that forecast right or wrong? Intuitively, one suspects that having it rain on a 90 percent PoP is in some sense "more right" than having it rain on a 10 percent forecast. However, this aspect of probability forecasting is only one aspect of the assessment of the performance of the forecasts. In fact, the use of probabilities precludes such a simple assessment of performance as the notion of "right vs. wrong" implies. This is a price one pays for the added flexibility and information content of using probability forecasts. Thus, the fact that on any given forecast day, two forecasters arrive at different subjective probabilities from the same data doesn't mean that one is right and the other wrong! It simply means that one is more certain of the event than the other. All this does is quantify the differences between the forecasters. A meaningful evaluation of the performance of probability forecasts (i.e., verification) is predicated on having an ensemble of such forecasts. The property of having high PoPs out on days that rain and having low PoPs out on days that don't rain is but one aspect of a complete assessment of the forecasts. Another aspect of importance is known as reliability: reliable forecasts are those where the observed frequencies of events match the forecast probabilities. A perfectly reliable forecaster would find it rains 10 percent of the time when a 10 percent PoP forecast is issued; it would rain 20 percent of the time when a 20 percent PoP forecast is issued, etc. Such a set of forecasts means that it is quite acceptable to have it rain 10 times out of 100 forecasts of 10 percent PoPs! We'll return to this verification stuff again." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I got cheap shots from HM. O well, life goes on. You may or may not get "cheap shots" but we get stupid every time you hit the "add reply" button. There was nothing cheap about my posts but let me save you the suspense about this one...yes it was a shot at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So is there a met on here or others who will say this event over-performed or went according to expectations? can we all agree that it "under-performed"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So is there a met on here or others who will say this event over-performed or went according to expectations? can we all agree that it "under-performed"... It went according to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You may or may not get "cheap shots" but we get stupid every time you hit the "add reply" button. There was nothing cheap about my posts but let me save you the suspense about this one...yes it was a shot at you. There is an ignore button.Use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So is there a met on here or others who will say this event over-performed or went according to expectations? can we all agree that it "under-performed"... And my question hasn't been answered - would a slight risk have been better than a moderate risk for our area? The answer to that IMO is yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Why did the monkey fall out of the tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So is there a met on here or others who will say this event over-performed or went according to expectations? can we all agree that it "under-performed"... bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 There is an ignore button.Use it there is also a post button. Don't use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 And my question hasn't been answered - would a slight risk have been better than a moderate risk for our area? The answer to that IMO is yes. And if the line didnt slightly weaken from 70mph winds to 40mph winds, we would've been saying that it should have been a moderate risk instead of a slight risk. In the big scale of things, a moderate risk or a 45% chance was fine. The line did have 70mph winds and started losing its juice near Allentown, PA. The thing was moving so fast, there was no way of knowing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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