earthlight Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Think for a second about what you're suggesting Upton do.... I can't believe the stuff I'm reading in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 for me, its the word STRUCTURAL wind damage that sticks out. One would think that inserting the worrd structural before wind damage can only mean they did not intend for any limb, branch or leaf to qualify, but actual physical structures like homes, buildings, etc. If someone has a statement from the nws clarifying, that would be great, otherwise, ok, its proven, wind damage reports of any kind verify severe and this thread is done. So a wind of any kind that cases any type of tree damage qualifies as severe as long as its happening in a thunderstorm? A nor'easter can produce plenty of tree damage, do those reports count as severe? Why should they automatically count in summer? Doesn't sound right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think this is why probability forecast were invented - so people like us would argue the day after a bust and end up absolutely nowhere, because a bust can't be technically proven. Technicality aside, I think those at SPC would say that the NJ/NYC/LI portion of the mdt risk was not as active as expected severe wise. The mdt risk should have been cut off in C/E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ranking yesterday as the #1 severe bust in NYC is one of the silliest things I've heard all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So a wind of any kind that cases any type of tree damage qualifies as severe as long as its happening in a thunderstorm? A nor'easter can produce plenty of tree damage, do those reports count as severe? Why should they automatically count in summer? Doesn't sound right. It's over bro. The system is rigged against us. The truth is that its technically impossible to bust due to the probabilities...so there is no point anymore. Congrats Mets...until next time...muhahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 0659 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW SPARTA 41.14N 73.88W 07/26/2012 M60 MPH WESTCHESTER NY MESONET 0730 PM TSTM WND GST MONROE 41.36N 73.20W 07/26/2012 M70 MPH FAIRFIELD CT PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ranking yesterday as the #1 severe bust in NYC is one of the silliest things I've heard all year. What would you rank as number one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 For all we know, a great dane ran head first into that tree and knocked into on the LIRR tracks A severe wind was pushing him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 So a wind of any kind that cases any type of tree damage qualifies as severe as long as its happening in a thunderstorm? A nor'easter can produce plenty of tree damage, do those reports count as severe? Why should they automatically count in summer? Doesn't sound right. I really don't have a dog in this fight and I always defer to people like HM etc, but I interpret words and qualifiers for a living all day, it's what I was trained to do, and it took all of a nano second for my eyes to focus on the word structural as a pretty big qualifier before the word wind damage, because if it just read wind damage, then yes, I would say that that is exactly what they intended, which was for damage related to winds from a thunderstorm to qualify as a severe event. Period, no debate. However, by putting structural before it, I can only assume that they didn't mean all wind damage, and they meant damage to physical structures like a building. Surely NWS or SPC has issued something as to this issue prior to me actually looking at the definition and I am sure someone can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 0659 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW SPARTA 41.14N 73.88W 07/26/2012 M60 MPH WESTCHESTER NY MESONET 0730 PM TSTM WND GST MONROE 41.36N 73.20W 07/26/2012 M70 MPH FAIRFIELD CT PUBLIC Both more than 25 miles from us. Monroe, CT is 68 miles from astoria, Briarcliff manor is 31 from you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ranking yesterday as the #1 severe bust in NYC is one of the silliest things I've heard all year. Agree. The storms formed and a potent line came through. There have been a ton of busts where nothing at all came or storms fizzled to nothing before they hit NYC area. The storms yersterday produced widespread 30-54mph winds from Queens on west. It's not like the storms competely died and we got nothing out of it. All derecho type systems are quick hitting and short. The difference between 40mph winds and 70mph winds is huge, in terms of damage, but in the large scope of things, its not enough to call the event a total bust. There was no way anyone could have known the line would slightly weaken from 70mph winds to 40mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I really don't have a dog in this fight and I always defer to people like HM etc, but I interpret words and qualifiers for a living all day, it's what I was trained to do, and it took all of a nano second for my eyes to focus on the word structural as a pretty big qualifier before the word wind damage, because if it just read wind damage, then yes, I would say that that is exactly what they intended, which was for damage related to winds from a thunderstorm to qualify as a severe event. Period, no debate. However, by putting structural before it, I can only assume that they didn't mean all wind damage, and they meant damage to physical structures like a building. Surely NWS or SPC has issued something as to this issue prior to me actually looking at the definition and I am sure someone can find it. What would you make of a tree blowing onto a house and smashing part of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Both more than 25 miles from us. Monroe, CT is 68 miles from astoria, Briarcliff manor is 31 from you... good thing the spc put a 45% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point instead of a 100% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What would you make of a tree blowing onto a house and smashing part of it? mulch... Lighten up guys. This is a hobby for most, profession for some. bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Agree. The storms formed and a potent line came through. There have been a ton of busts where nothing at all came or storms fizzled to nothing before they hit NYC area. The storms yersterday produced widespread 30-54mph winds from Queens on west. It's not like the storms competely died and we got nothing out of it. All derecho type systems are quick hitting and short. The difference between 40mph winds and 70mph winds is huge, in terms of damage, but in the large scope of things, its not enough to call the event a total bust. There was no way anyone could have known the line would slightly weaken from 70mph winds to 40mph winds. dude, that’s a major weakening. Anyone could have known this if they looked at sounding and actual data and not just forecast models. I tried to show this and was shut down by a hot head moderator who has an agenda against me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Both more than 25 miles from us. Monroe, CT is 68 miles from astoria, Briarcliff manor is 31 from you... Briarcliff Manor is 23 miles from North shore of Queens 17 miles from Manhattan 15 miles from Bronx The CT report is less then 25 miles from a lot of people in Suffolk County, LI. The point Im trying to prove is that there were a couple of severe winds reported within our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 good thing the spc put a 45% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point instead of a 100% chance. i already conceded. something that cannot bust, did not bust. as an attorney it would insincere for me to argue otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The SPC was forecasting a greater chance of there not being severe weather within 25 miles of you than there being severe weather within 25 miles of you. *ducks* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 A confirmed severe storm passed near Danbury, CT. Only miles from Trial's house. The best part of the bowing storm crossed right through that town. There are many reports of dozens and dozens of large trees down on houses, cars and all over the roads. If that little storm was a few miles south, it would have nailed NYC and only a tiny area within 3-5 miles of it. Would the event still be a bust if it did that? The people that call the event a bust would STILL have to call it a bust. Even if that tiny bowing cell crossed right through NYC and affected no one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Agree. The storms formed and a potent line came through. There have been a ton of busts where nothing at all came or storms fizzled to nothing before they hit NYC area. The storms yersterday produced widespread 30-54mph winds from Queens on west. It's not like the storms competely died and we got nothing out of it. All derecho type systems are quick hitting and short. The difference between 40mph winds and 70mph winds is huge, in terms of damage, but in the large scope of things, its not enough to call the event a total bust. There was no way anyone could have known the line would slightly weaken from 70mph winds to 40mph winds. I agree with this statement it could been fizzle out to showers or nothing but instead many of us still got 30-50 mph gust of wind from with that MCS and that is why I only call it a semi-bust. Remeber 6/6/2010 where when we were in the moderate risk and we just either got boring rain showers or nothing at all. Still the cluster of thunderstorms weaken somewhat enough to make short severe limits though and the severe reports were very isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What would you make of a tree blowing onto a house and smashing part of it? A hung jury. No seriously, great question. If I have no other things to work with other than the definition above, I interpret it as structural damage caused directly by wind snce that is how it reads, not cause and effect damage. But, as with a lot of things in law, reading the statute or legislation is only part of the battle. We always look to intent, etc. by reading legislative miniutes, or notes, etc. I didn't draft it, so I can only bring up the debate. Nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 and if you put that into a visual sense... looks like NYC didnt make out too badly Red is the mod risk outline at 20z Red, Blue and Green symbols are Tornado, Wind and Hail reports Black line is a 25 miles buffer that was done around each report then merged into one larger polygon This is pretty much the end of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Briarcliff Manor is 23 miles from North shore of Queens 17 miles from Manhattan 15 miles from Bronx The CT report is less then 25 miles from a lot of people on Suffolk County, NY. The point Im trying to prove is that there were a couple of severe winds reported within our area. What? Monroe CT is 22 miles north of the north shore of suffolk...you got me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 NWS mets love Bradford Pear trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 A confirmed severe storm passed near Danbury, CT. Only miles from Trial's house. The best part of the bowing storm crossed right through that town. There are many reports of dozens and dozens of large trees down on houses, cars and all over the roads. If that little storm was a few miles south, it would have nailed NYC and only a tiny area within 3-5 miles of it. Would the event still be a bust if it did that? The people that call the event a bust would STILL have to call it a bust. Even if that tiny bowing cell crossed right through NYC and affected no one else. A) I am not in here debating bust. I am merely talking about definitions B ) Danbury is 26.95 miles from me, so please, when you say only miles, you better define what you consider "miles" because over 25 miles isn't a walk down the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 This is pretty much the end of the thread Thread was over when it was realized that it is technically impossible to bust on a severe storm event. When did mets start using % chance in every forecast. Used to be, chance of showers or "Rain". Now everything is a %...seems like an easy escape route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 and if you put that into a visual sense... looks like NYC didnt make out too badly Red is the mod risk outline at 20z Red, Blue and Green symbols are Tornado, Wind and Hail reports Black line is a 25 miles buffer that was done around each report then merged into one larger polygon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 This is pretty much the end of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Thread was over when it was realized that it is technically impossible to bust on a severe storm event. When did mets start using % chance in every forecast. Used to be, chance of showers or "Rain". Now everything is a %...seems like an easy escape route. If you forecast a 20% chance of rain on five days, and it rains once in those 5 days, are you a good forecaster or a bad forecaster? What if you said "every one of those 5 days, it's unlikely to rain, so I'm just going to say partly sunny?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Thread was over when it was realized that it is technically impossible to bust on a severe storm event. When did mets start using % chance in every forecast. Used to be, chance of showers or "Rain". Now everything is a %...seems like an easy escape route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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