Worst Forecast Bust for a Severe Weather Outbreak Ever?

[forkyfork]

and if you put that into a visual sense... looks like NYC didnt make out too badly

Red is the mod risk outline at 20z

Red, Blue and Green symbols are Tornado, Wind and Hail reports

Black line is a 25 miles buffer that was done around each report then merged into one larger polygon

in other words, it didn't bust in nyc

[OSUmetstud]

technically a probability based severe weather outlook can't bust. Both because it's an "outlook" not a forecast...and because it's probabilistic not deterministic. You can't look at a small geographic section of a large moderate probabilistic outlook and decide it "busted"

[psv88]

and if you put that into a visual sense... looks like NYC didnt make out too badly

Red is the mod risk outline at 20z

Red, Blue and Green symbols are Tornado, Wind and Hail reports

Black line is a 25 miles buffer that was done around each report then merged into one larger polygon

Those blue dots ARE NOT reports of severe winds...just wind damage. A large branch on a car can be a blue dot.

The blue dot on long island was a tree down on the LIRR tracks. Not a severe wind report.

Very misleading and inaccurate.

[psv88]

in other words, it didn't bust in nyc

false. The blue dots do not represent winds over 58 mph.

[Isotherm]

Just to be clear - the overall moderate outlook was a good one. And many of us in this forum and others saw this potential from 5+ days ago. It's a shame that we were the one portion of the mdt area to not meet expectations, but you live and learn. Between the seperation of the T-storms from the height fall center, lack of good ML lapse rates, and enhanced CIN along the coast, convection didn't maintain. Onto the next threat...

[LocoAko]

You know its funny John. I wrote 600 times that this was not a case of i didnt get it in my yard and most people. It is such a cop out to say that and its BS because nobody said it. Maybe you can say it again and it will become true?

and to HM, show me a severe report within 25 miles of my location. I wonder where the nearest severe report came from, maybe orange county, 60 miles away?

So...if i did not have a severe report within 25 miles, then is it a bust? When will it be a bust? Im just curious. a 50 mph wind gust is not severe. Show me the closest severe gust and prove me wrong.

Its BS to throw technical TERMS out there, and to try and school people...but show me facts? As an attorney i can use terminology only trials and jefflaw will understand, but it doesnt make me correct.

BUST.

Did you miss the part where the magenta shading was 45% and not 100% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point?

[TheTrials]

Those blue dots ARE NOT reports of severe winds...just wind damage. A large branch on a car can be a blue dot.

The blue dot on long island was a tree down on the LIRR tracks. Not a severe wind report.

Very misleading and inaccurate.

This!!!!!!!

[psv88]

This is the blue dot on Long island.

0000 UNK LOCUST VALLEY NASSAU NY 4088 7359 TREE DOWN NEAR LOCUST VALLEY ... REPORTED BY LONG ISLAND RAILROAD.

This is NOT a severe wind report, it is a report of a tree down.

[Chicago Storm]

This is the blue dot on Long island.

0000 UNK LOCUST VALLEY NASSAU NY 4088 7359 TREE DOWN NEAR LOCUST VALLEY ... REPORTED BY LONG ISLAND RAILROAD.

This is NOT a severe wind report, it is a report of a tree down.

It's a severe wind report.

[Isotherm]

Those blue dots ARE NOT reports of severe winds...just wind damage. A large branch on a car can be a blue dot.

The blue dot on long island was a tree down on the LIRR tracks. Not a severe wind report.

Very misleading and inaccurate.

Yeah, I've seen branches break in an autumn nor'easter with 40-45mph winds.

[OSUmetstud]

This is the blue dot on Long island.

0000 UNK LOCUST VALLEY NASSAU NY 4088 7359 TREE DOWN NEAR LOCUST VALLEY ... REPORTED BY LONG ISLAND RAILROAD.

This is NOT a severe wind report, it is a report of a tree down.

That is how watches, warnings, and outlooks are verified, though. We don't have anemometers at every location.

[TheTrials]

From uptons page

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Issued when there is evidence based on radar or a reliable spotter report that a thunderstorm is producing, or forecast to produce, wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, structural wind damage, and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or greater.

Notice it says structural wind damage, not a dead tree falling down.

[psv88]

Did you miss the part where the magenta shading was 45% and not 100% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point?

Right, i was thinking about how to incorporate that.

If you use that logic though, then no event could ever bust because nothing is 100%.

When has there ever been a 100% chance of a severe event?

[Sundog]

Not worth even bothering with this thread anymore..its been riddled with inaccurate and poorly written posts with no substance. No trees are down in their yard, so it's a bust. Whatever.

Why are you pushing this angle? It simply isnt true. It's not like we can't check reports for the general area. No trees fell in my yard, that's true. No trees fell in everyone else's yard either.

Can someone who posts in this sub forum mention if severe weather criteria were met anywhere near them?

[psv88]

It's a severe wind report.

No, its not.

Severe wind is over 58. A severe wind report is a wind reading over 58.

A tree can knock over in 40 mph gust, seen it many times.

[OSUmetstud]

Right, i was thinking about how to incorporate that.

If you use that logic though, then no event could ever bust because nothing is 100%.

When has there ever been a 100% chance of a severe event?

that is the correct logic, though.

Watches, warnings and outlooks are verfiied in numbers...not by any single event.

[psv88]

For all we know, a great dane ran head first into that tree and knocked into on the LIRR tracks

[psv88]

that is the correct logic, though.

Watches, warnings and outlooks are verfiied in numbers...not by any single event.

So what you are saying is that this is a trick question, whether this was a bust.

Then are you saying no severe forecast/outbreak whatever can ever bust?

[OSUmetstud]

For all we know, a great dane ran head first into that tree and knocked into on the LIRR tracks

and for all you know it could have also been toppled in a 65 mph wind gust....

damage reports are used by the SPC and local offices to verify watches, warnings, and outlooks I'm sorry you don't like it...but that's the way it is.

[Chicago Storm]

No, its not.

Severe wind is over 58. A severe wind report is a wind reading over 58.

A tree can knock over in 40 mph gust, seen it many times.

A severe wind report is any severe wind gust over 58MPH and any thunderstorm wind damage.

Obviously the wind speed was not reported and you don't know the size/condition of the tree to estimate, but it is a severe wind report whether you like it or not.

[Hailstorm]

As the original poster in this thread, I was honestly not expecting to amend my top choices for busts for many years. But, I will officially rank my choices now as follows:

1) 7/26/2012

2) 6/6/2010

3) 12/1/2006

All of the above dates featured moderate risks for NYC, Eastern Connecticut and Long Island.

Now, I will elaborate why yesterday's event could easily be perceived as a bust by many individuals. Note, however that the reasons below have more to do with semantics than actual storm report verification:

1) It was considerably irresponsible of Upton to issue Severe T-storm warnings that contained strongly-worded, bold and overconfident phrases such as "prepare now for destructive winds over 70 MPH, destructive hail and deadly lightening." These warnings were issued for NYC, Long Island and most of CT. They did not even acknowledge that the warnings had a chance of not verifying; anyone reading them at 7:00 PM would likely have thought that it was 100% certain that a damaging wind storm was coming.

2) Upton was very adamant in saying that the bowing segments over PA would not weaken in their AFDs, despite the clear evident fact that severe weather parameters for NYC on east were dwindling rapidly after 7 PM. i.e. - lowering CAPE, horrible lifted indices and bad lapse rates.

3) Lonnie Quinn on CBS trying to artificially increase urgency by stating, "I bet my career that everyone in the Tri-State area will see damaging winds."

4) I think the SPC acted more responsibly than Upton. However, I think that on moderate or high risk days, they should issue hourly updated Day 1 outlooks. If they carried this out, then their outlooks would have reflected the diminishing instability factors in NYC at 7 PM and include them only in 2% tornado probabilities, 15% wind probs. and 5% hail probs.

5) Some posters in here kept on holding to the dogmatic belief that NYC and LI would be dealt with severe wind, even after radar scans showed the storms fading.

[OSUmetstud]

So what you are saying is that this is a trick question, whether this was a bust.

Then are you saying no severe forecast/outbreak whatever can ever bust?

technically...no

[psv88]

and for all you know it could have also been toppled in a 65 mph wind gust....

damage reports are used by the SPC and local offices to verify watches, warnings, and outlooks I'm sorry you don't like it...but that's the way it is.

Back to my point, are you saying that a severe event can never bust? If so, this thread is useless and i stand corrected.

If there can never be a bust, then there was no bust.

you win.

[psv88]

technically...no

Ok. So if it is technically impossible for there to be a bust, then i stand corrected.

It was not a bust.

[LocoAko]

Taking the blue dots as a whole (and whether it was 50mph or 58mph separately) ...

It seems to me the wind damage reports primarily line up exactly where we'd expect them to be. Yesterday's storms until just about right after the coast were part of a Line Echo Wave Pattern, and in those cases, the rear inflow jet causes individual parts of the storm to surge, causing the wavy pattern. That is what causes the damage. The northern half of NJ and NYC got into one of the "concave" (for lack of a better term) portions of the squall line, where severe weather is less likely in general - and that was just left up to chance. In a situation like that I certainly wouldn't expect spatially similar severe reports. You can even see individual lines of blue dots embedded within the clusters whenever a surge got going.

[TheTrials]

for me, its the word STRUCTURAL wind damage that sticks out. One would think that inserting the worrd structural before wind damage can only mean they did not intend for any limb, branch or leaf to qualify, but actual physical structures like homes, buildings, etc. If someone has a statement from the nws clarifying, that would be great, otherwise, ok, its proven, wind damage reports of any kind verify severe and this thread is done.

[LocoAko]

1) It was considerably irresponsible of Upton to issue Severe T-storm warnings that contained strongly-worded, bold and overconfident phrases such as "prepare now for destructive winds over 70 MPH, destructive hail and deadly lightening." These warnings were issued for NYC, Long Island and most of CT. They did not even acknowledge that the warnings had a chance of not verifying; anyone reading them at 7:00 PM would likely have thought that it was 100% certain that a damaging wind storm was coming.

Think for a second about what you're suggesting Upton do....

[earthlight]

false. The blue dots do not represent winds over 58 mph.

The blue dots represent verified wind reports of damage that are used to verify NWS watches and warnings. tI's that simple.

[ag3]

Reading through the severe weather text,

I quickly saw 2 reports of 70+mph winds in Fairfield County, CT and a bunch more of 60+ mph within NYC's 25 mile watch area.

[Chicago Storm]

Taking the blue dots as a whole (and whether it was 50mph or 58mph separately) ...

It seems to me the wind damage reports primarily line up exactly where we'd expect them to be. Yesterday's storms until just about right after the coast were part of a Line Echo Wave Pattern, and in those cases, the rear inflow jet causes individual parts of the storm to surge, causing the wavy pattern. That is what causes the damage. The northern half of NJ and NYC got into one of the "concave" (for lack of a better term) portions of the squall line, where severe weather is less likely in general - and that was just left up to chance. In a situation like that I certainly wouldn't expect spatially similar severe reports. You can even see individual lines of blue dots embedded within the clusters whenever a surge got going.

This.

Your usual serial derecho.

Obviously many need to learn how to identify storm type, what a severe weather report is, and how a convective outlook works.