HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 This thread makes it painfully clear that few in here understand what a watch actually means and/or probablistic forecasting. No. The 45% means that there is a 45% chance that a point within 25 miles of your location will see severe criteria winds. Completely different. Yep. It is amazing. I can understand non-mets but there are actually mets too who don't understand what these probabilistic forecasts mean. It's a "no win" battle here, though, when trying to explain this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No. The 45% means that there is a 45% chance that a point within 25 miles of your location will see severe criteria winds. Completely different. Ok. The bottom line is the mdt risk was probably too far east, and a slight risk would have definitely sufficed for NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Most people in our sub forum did not see anything close to severe level storms. New England the same. No one is doubting its verification farther west. Same can be said in most historic outbreaks in any location. Limbs and branches can come down also in a garden variety thunderstorm...when the METRO area has less than 25k power outages, the storms were not that bad. Half of those reports are from buoys or sites on the ocean/sound. Nobody said some areas didnt see severe, the majority were north and it was widely scattered. Defintely NOT moderate risk type damage "Moderate risk type damage" clearly shows your lack of understanding what moderate risk means. I was looking forward to hail and really gusty winds. Obviously your expectations are ridiculous. Our area doesn't really do well with severe weather. Bring on winter. This statement is ridiculous. It was a bust for the immediate area but not for everyone. I think a lot of people in our area were expecting damaging winds and torrential downpours with loud thunder and vivid lightning. Also hail. Who cares. I don't think anyone thinks the general severe outlook busted. This thread was made in this sub forum for a reason: to determine the biggest bust for OUR area, not an outlook that encompasses 1/4 of the US. Yeah but you have to understand the entire event /outlook to appreciate what happened. The SPC busted for the NYC area. It did well for the other areas. Your best bet is to read something before ever posting again on this subject. For the NYC/NJ/Eastern PA section of the moderate risk, I'd say it busted. Verified for a slight risk, but not a moderate one. I counted 12 wind reports in NJ. In Western PA, I counted approximately 70-75 wind reports. If one notes the SPC storm report page, it's very clear that the widespread nature of the wind damage decreased rapidly once east of a MDT-BGM line. The moderate risk 45% wind contour implies that almost 1 out of every 2 locations should receive severe criteria winds. That certainly did not happen anywhere in NJ, NYC or LI. It probably verified for the southern Hudson valley, with those most intense cluster of cells. But I'd say for the bulk of the tristate, the reports indicate that maybe 15% of us experienced severe, so slight risk verified. Radar also supported the much more scattered severe winds once east of Harrisburg-Binghamton. So overall, I would say the moderate risk verified for the western portion of the risk area, but not for E PA, NJ, NYC, LI. Not a total bust in severe weather either for our area, since we did verify slight risk I think. However, the moderate was definitely overdone for the NJ/NYC region. I like your long range posts and all but this post clearly shows you need to read up on severe weather and what the SPC outlooks mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I got shafted on the island, but still think SPC over further analysis did do a great job with the warnings and outlook. There were confirmed tornadoes and wind damage away from the coast so it did reach that criteria. Its just when they got to the coast certain parameters did in fact end the storms for us pretty much. From west jersey on west into PA the storm did deliver and to some other areas that were included in the watch and 45% risk. Overall i give the forecast a B+ because although the coast didnt get impacted there were still widespread severe reports with that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Did I just hear a bell ring? HM just schooled some folks. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ok, how was my statement ridiculous? The NYC area doesn't do well with severe weather because of the marine layer. Yes we do get hit with storms but most of the time, it isn't severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Let's be honest here. It's easy to monday morning quarterback. I don't recall anyone being negative w/ regards to the severe threat in our area yesterday. We were all expecting a more widespread severe event, meteorologists included. We mentioned the timing issues and potential problem of being too far removed from the forcing - and that caveat verified - plain and simple. We thought the other impressive thermodynamic and kinematic parameters would easily compensate, but it generally didn't for NJ/NYC/LI. No, the SPC did not bust for the outlook overall, but I think it's being dishonest to ignore that NJ/NYC/LI portion of the outlook area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ok, how was my post ridiculous? I bet a lot of people was thinking that since the area was ripe for severe storms. You as a follower of weather should know that because your particular backyard didn't receive severe weather, doesn't mean other areas didnt. The general public is clueless and its understandable that they dont know what these watches and warnings meant. SPC and others on this forum called this event from 3 days out; which is pretty good for severe weather. The line of storms formed just as the paramaters showed but underwhelmed by a little bit. Instead of 60-80mph winds, widespread, the area received 30-50mph winds with scattered higher amounts. But the placement of the MCS was pretty spot on by SPC and other great mets and posters on this forum. The writing was on the wall once the line crossed Allentown and the reports coming out were of weaker 30-50mph winds as the line headed east. This was very close to being a historic, derecho type, outbreak that affected a wide area. It never materialized but no biggie. That's severe weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ok, how was my post ridiculous? I bet a lot of people was thinking that since the area was ripe for severe storms. Give me a break. The information is in front of you by the generous posters who were kind enough to explain it but you continue to ignore it. Oh and obviously the area wasn't as ripe for severe storms as you thought. If you wish to get into why this went wrong, there have been several fabulous posts in the NE subforum offering possible explanations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I like your long range posts and all but this post clearly shows you need to read up on severe weather and what the SPC outlooks mean. HM, you've got to admit that it generally didn't go as planned for NJ/NYC severe wise. A slight risk would have been fine for our immediate area, that's all my point's been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I stopped trying..the only thing most in this thread care about is the fact that they didn't have severe damage in their yard. So because of that, it's a bust. You know its funny John. I wrote 600 times that this was not a case of i didnt get it in my yard and most people. It is such a cop out to say that and its BS because nobody said it. Maybe you can say it again and it will become true? and to HM, show me a severe report within 25 miles of my location. I wonder where the nearest severe report came from, maybe orange county, 60 miles away? So...if i did not have a severe report within 25 miles, then is it a bust? When will it be a bust? Im just curious. a 50 mph wind gust is not severe. Show me the closest severe gust and prove me wrong. Its BS to throw technical TERMS out there, and to try and school people...but show me facts? As an attorney i can use terminology only trials and jefflaw will understand, but it doesnt make me correct. BUST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Give me a break. The information is in front of you by the generous posters who were kind enough to explain it but you continue to ignore it. Oh and obviously the area wasn't as ripe for severe storms as you thought. If you wish to get into why this went wrong, there have been several fabulous posts in the NE subforum offering possible explanations. I usually go into the SNE subforums .Really good discussions. There are also good discussions in this subforum. I just said that my area didn't get hit hard like other areas did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Give me a break. The information is in front of you by the generous posters who were kind enough to explain it but you continue to ignore it. Oh and obviously the area wasn't as ripe for severe storms as you thought. If you wish to get into why this went wrong, there have been several fabulous posts in the NE subforum offering possible explanations. It was being explained and has been explained in the NYC region as well, by the great severe weather mets and posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Let's be honest here. It's easy to monday morning quarterback. I don't recall anyone being negative w/ regards to the severe threat in our area yesterday. We were all expecting a more widespread severe event, meteorologists included. We mentioned the timing issues and potential problem of being too far removed from the forcing - and that caveat verified - plain and simple. We thought the other impressive thermodynamic and kinematic parameters would easily compensate, but it generally didn't for NJ/NYC/LI. No, the SPC did not bust for the outlook overall, but I think it's being dishonest to ignore that NJ/NYC/LI portion of the outlook area. You are arguing two different things which is why I think you don't understand the SPC probabilistic forecasts. Yes, any deterministic forecast made that said NYC would see severe weather was wrong. The SPC does nothing deterministic so stop confusing the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You are arguing two different things which is why I think you don't understand the SPC probabilistic forecasts. Yes, any deterministic forecast made that said NYC would see severe weather was wrong. The SPC does nothing deterministic so stop confusing the two. Using your own analysis it is still a bust for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No. The 45% means that there is a 45% chance that a point within 25 miles of your location will see severe criteria winds. Completely different. Ok, so even using that definition, totaling the area of NJ/NYC/LI, that definitely did not verify. Virtually nothing on LI or NYC, and fairly sparse in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You know its funny John. I wrote 600 times that this was not a case of i didnt get it in my yard and most people. It is such a cop out to say that and its BS because nobody said it. Maybe you can say it again and it will become true? and to HM, show me a severe report within 25 miles of my location. I wonder where the nearest severe report came from, maybe orange county, 60 miles away? So...if i did not have a severe report within 25 miles, then is it a bust? When will it be a bust? Im just curious. a 50 mph wind gust is not severe. Show me the closest severe gust and prove me wrong. Its BS to throw technical TERMS out there, and to try and school people...but show me facts? As an attorney i can use terminology only trials and jefflaw will understand, but it doesnt make me correct. BUST. LOL yeah okay... You say "moderate risk type damage" and then post this and you expect me to continue this conversation? Probabilistic forecasts are not verified by 1 event like a deterministic forecast. Where's attica when you need him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 And yes we all understand what a watch is...but we had WARNINGS...not one of the warnings verified in the 5 boroughs or LI, probably most of NE NJ, Southern Westchester, etc. Gotta love it when mets talk down to us "common folk"...its ok to try and defend what happened, but to deny a bust for most of nyc metro is insincere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You are arguing two different things which is why I think you don't understand the SPC probabilistic forecasts. Yes, any deterministic forecast made that said NYC would see severe weather was wrong. The SPC does nothing deterministic so stop confusing the two. The SPC probabilities were too high - that's the point I'm making. A 15% slight would have sufficed. Thank you for admitting the deterministic forecasts were wrong. All of us, including yourself, expected better for NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 LOL yeah okay... You say "moderate risk type damage" and then post this and you expect me to continue this conversation? Probabilistic forecasts are not verified by 1 event like a deterministic forecast. Where's attica when you need him... I respect your analysis and knowledge, i do and John. More than you guys know. But when you cannot backup your claim that there was not a bust using your own terms, i have to challenge that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I call it a semi-bust with the moderate risk. Even the storms did weaken below severe levels and there were only isolated severe reports in the NYC/LI area but could been worse like it was back in June 2010 where it could weaken to boring rain showers all together with very little to no lightning involved. At least many of us still experience strong storms with with winds gust 35 to 45 mph with heavy rain with good amount of thunder and lightning. There were storm just as good if not better this season. Hopefully the best is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think I just showed Jake why this effort is futile and I'm definitely done with this thread. So a forecast that says you basically have a 45% chance within 25 miles of point to see severe wind is being interpreted as, "severe weather should happen everywhere." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think I just showed Jake why this effort is futile and I'm definitely done with this thread. So a forecast that says you basically have a 45% chance within 25 miles of point to see severe wind is being interpreted as, "severe weather should happen everywhere." Not worth even bothering with this thread anymore..its been riddled with inaccurate and poorly written posts with no substance. No trees are down in their yard, so it's a bust. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think I just showed Jake why this effort is futile and I'm definitely done with this thread. So a forecast that says you basically have a 45% chance within 25 miles of point to see severe wind is being interpreted as, "severe weather should happen everywhere." I would respect your opinion if you use fax to show that was mot a bust. I am not sure why you guys are taking this personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Not worth even bothering with this thread anymore..its been riddled with inaccurate and poorly written posts with no substance. No trees are down in their yard, so it's a bust. Whatever. Definitely not true. I am trying to use wind reports to show that it was a bust. Show me 1 person who has said that because there were no trees down in their yard it was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I think I just showed Jake why this effort is futile and I'm definitely done with this thread. So a forecast that says you basically have a 45% chance within 25 miles of point to see severe wind is being interpreted as, "severe weather should happen everywhere." No, it's being interpretted that severe weather should have happened in more locations given the moderate risk. How then is a mdt risk to be graded in your opinion? Re my question - Are you saying you believe a slight risk would not have been better than moderate for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No one expected every single town in the tristate to receive severe wind. But when you have 12 wind reports in NJ, and basically none from NYC and LI, the severe event did not meet expectations in OUR area - plain and simple. Just looking for some honesty here, and folks seem to be getting offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No, it's being interpretted that severe weather should have happened in more locations given the moderate risk. How then is a mdt risk to be graded in your opinion? Re my question - Are you saying you believe a slight risk would not have been better than moderate for our area? Its pointless dude. I wish it was not a bust. Its not like we have anything to gain by there being a bust... I just dont see any reports within 50 miles of my location with a severe report...to me thats a bust. I dont get why some people take it so personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No. The 45% means that there is a 45% chance that a point within 25 miles of your location will see severe criteria winds. Completely different. and if you put that into a visual sense... looks like NYC didnt make out too badly Red is the mod risk outline at 20z Red, Blue and Green symbols are Tornado, Wind and Hail reports Black line is a 25 miles buffer that was done around each report then merged into one larger polygon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 i thought it was a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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