Worst Forecast Bust for a Severe Weather Outbreak Ever?

[MJO812]

Dude, what is so difficult to understand? Just because the NYC Area didn't see widespread severe winds doesn't mean the SPC Outlook busted. Which is what this thread is about.

The SPC busted for the NYC area. It did well for the other areas.

[Isotherm]

For the NYC/NJ/Eastern PA section of the moderate risk, I'd say it busted. Verified for a slight risk, but not a moderate one. I counted 12 wind reports in NJ. In Western PA, I counted approximately 70-75 wind reports. If one notes the SPC storm report page, it's very clear that the widespread nature of the wind damage decreased rapidly once east of a MDT-BGM line.

The moderate risk 45% wind contour implies that almost 1 out of every 2 locations should receive severe criteria winds. That certainly did not happen anywhere in NJ, NYC or LI. It probably verified for the southern Hudson valley, with those most intense cluster of cells. But I'd say for the bulk of the tristate, the reports indicate that maybe 15% of us experienced severe, so slight risk verified. Radar also supported the much more scattered severe winds once east of Harrisburg-Binghamton.

So overall, I would say the moderate risk verified for the western portion of the risk area, but not for E PA, NJ, NYC, LI. Not a total bust in severe weather either for our area, since we did verify slight risk I think. However, the moderate was definitely overdone for the NJ/NYC region.

[psv88]

The SPC busted for the NYC area. It did well for the other areas.

Yes and this is a NYC sub-forum. So it was...a bust.

[MJO812]

Yes and this is a NYC sub-forum. So it was...a bust.

Correct

[earthlight]

yea except for the fact that SPC included NYC in the moderate risk...how is that so hard for you to understand? Yes other areas got slammed, nobody denies that. But, NYC was placed in the mod risk, etc and it did not verfiy.

For OUR area, it was a bust. Are we commenting on Central NYS or nyc metro. im pretty sure this is a nyc metro thread. in the nyc metro it was a bust. period. dont need a meteorological degree to figure that out.

Lol. Obviously you're not fully grasping how severe weather works. Often even in a High Risk, there will be areas that don't get severe damage. But the coverage of reports verifies the Moderate or a High.

This outlook did not bust. Just because some enthusiasts in the NYC Area didn't get widespread severe winds doesn't mean the Moderate didn't verify. There were a ton of reports over NJ and SE NY alone.

[PB GFI]

This is not a severe weather outlook bust. Sorry.

[PB GFI]

I dont know how one would expect a map to verify any better .

If you didnt get wind damage or lightning didnt strike your house ,

dont complain fools - be thankful .

[Alpha5]

That's fine. That still doesn't mean the Moderate Risk outlook from SPC busted.

The SPC was just a touch to the east with the moderate zone, but other than that they nailed it if you look at storm reports.

Maybe because everything passed by so quickly it just didnt feel like a 'moderate' risk event. I mean in SW CT we had a bout 5 minutes of some moderate winds, then absolutely nothing for about half an hour before ending with some drizzle and lightning. Just seemed a bit underwhelming IMO.

[Isotherm]

Lol. Obviously you're not fully grasping how severe weather works. Often even in a High Risk, there will be areas that don't get severe damage. But the coverage of reports verifies the Moderate or a High.

This outlook did not bust. Just because some enthusiasts in the NYC Area didn't get widespread severe winds doesn't mean the Moderate didn't verify. There were a ton of reports over NJ and SE NY alone.

I'd say at least 80% of NJ did not experience severe criteria winds, probably 85%. I don't think the moderate risk overall busted, but if one were to put a box around the NJ-LI region, we only verified slight risk in my opinion. I agree that SE NY may have verified moderate, but not NJ, NYC and LI.

[psv88]

I dont know how one would expect a map to verify any better .

If you didnt get wind damage or lightning didnt strike your house ,

dont complain fools - be thankful .

See this is what yuu don't get. This isn't me crying over no storms imby. I don't particularly like severe storm's. 2500 outages. Not severe event. Period. You realize that many of the blue dots are large branches that fell or small trees?

[PB GFI]

See this is what yuu don't get. This isn't me crying over no storms imby. I don't particularly like severe storm's. 2500 outages. Not severe event. Period. You realize that many of the blue dots are large branches that fell or small trees?

I think yesterdays SPC map did a very good job handling this line over such a large area . My opinion is they didnt bust just becasue the top end of the range wasnt reached here . I think there map worked out well overall and maybe

a tad over enthusiastic in our area , but not a bust .

[psv88]

I think yesterdays SPC map did a very good job handling this line over such a large area . My opinion is they didnt bust just becasue the top end of the range wasnt reached here . I think there map worked out well overall and maybe

a tad over enthusiastic in our area , but not a bust .

How about that tornado watch all the way up the hudson valley, into CT, etc...come on. I get it guys, there was some lightning and it was breezy in spots...just because there are some widely scattered reports of limbs down does not mean it did not bust.

Long island has 7 million people (including the boroughs of bk and queens). Less than 4k total lost power...this is not a case of IMBY i got nothing. We got squat.

[TheTrials]

I wonder what, if any affect the tvs that went through northern orange county had on the line. It looked like the line really choked itself off just to the south of that from southern orange, down to rockland, westchester, my area and nothern nyc metro while the line tried to get going again around earthlight but just couldn't make it all the way back. Meanwhile, you can trace a nice area of real damage from about 4 miles north of middletown ny east through northern orange, to putnam, into northern fairfield and souther litchfield.

[PB GFI]

How about that tornado watch all the way up the hudson valley, into CT, etc...come on. I get it guys, there was some lightning and it was breezy in spots...just because there are some widely scattered reports of limbs down does not mean it did not bust.

Long island has 7 million people (including the boroughs of bk and queens). Less than 4k total lost power...this is not a case of IMBY i got nothing. We got squat.

So when doppler radar sees rotation in a return in a line that produced a tornado in Elmira

and rotation was being picked up throughout the afternoon its a bust to issue a watch ?

I thought you guys only did stuff like this in the winter lol .

[psv88]

So when doppler radar sees rotation in a return in a line that produced a tornado in Elmira

and rotation was being picked up throughout the afternoon its a bust to issue a watch ?

I thought you guys only did stuff like this in the winter lol .

Look in the title of the thread...BUST.

This is where we discuss...busts...if you want to discuss how well it performed, then you can start a new thread called "amazing verification events"

[PB GFI]

Look in the title of the thread...BUST.

This is where we discuss...busts...if you want to discuss how well it performed, then you can start a new thread called "amazing verification events"

usually when i see a " ? " at the end of a statement it makes it a question,.

its usually is followed by discussion and opinion , You think it was a bust I dont ,

that happens sometimes .

[Sundog]

usually when i see a " ? " at the end of a statement it makes it a question,.

its usually is followed by discussion and opinion , You think it was a bust I dont ,

that happens sometimes .

It busted for the people in this sub forum. That's it.

[TheTrials]

if we had gotten that AVP sounding LocoAko promised us, this entire thing could have been avoided.

Im am totally joking jake, just busting your chops, i see you reading.

[Fantom X]

I think the biggest problem is that we get these severe weather warnings and 9 times out of 10 it turns out to be nothing. Like the boy who cried wolf. One of these days, we will get warned again and the public will not take it seriously and we will get hit hard and people/property will suffer.

[IsentropicLift]

I think the biggest problem is that we get these severe weather warnings and 9 times out of 10 it turns out to be nothing. Like the boy who cried wolf. One of these days, we will get warned again and the public will not take it seriously and we will get hit hard and people/property will suffer.

Even with all the media hype yesterday very few of my co-workers took the threat seriously. And when you have happen what happened, it only makes them think that they were right. I've said it before and I will say it again, they need to be a little more selective about watches. Just because you have a few cells approaching the area doesn't always require a watch. People see the warnings, they hear the thunder approaching, common sense. I can't tell you how many people have no idea what the difference is between a watch and a warning.

[psv88]

Even with all the media hype yesterday very few of my co-workers took the threat seriously. And when you have happen what happened, it only makes them think that they were right. I've said it before and I will say it again, they need to be a little more selective about watches. Just because you have a few cells approaching the area doesn't always require a watch. People see the warnings, they hear the thunder approaching, common sense. I can't tell you how many people have no idea what the difference is between a watch and a warning.

Disagree. Everyone was talking about the threat. Public was well informed and took it seriously.

[TheTrials]

00Z Upton sounding shows the story all too well. check out the CAP and the CINH.

[earthlight]

00Z Upton sounding shows the story all too well. check out the CAP and the CINH.

Remember that those parcels are being ingested into the storm. The mid level lapse rates were also poor. 850 emps were over 20 c in places. The updrafts basically couldn't sustain themselves as they moved eastward.

[TheTrials]

Remember that those parcels are being ingested into the storm. The mid level lapse rates were also poor. 850 emps were over 20 c in places. The updrafts basically couldn't sustain themselves as they moved eastward.

Yes. It choked them off. Oh well next time. You did a great job with this. Bravo.

[earthlight]

Yes. It choked them off. Oh well next time. You did a great job with this. Bravo.

Eh, I could've done better. I was convinced around this time yesterday that this thing was going straight to the coast as a severe MCS.

Three days ago I was not impressed with the NAMs look in the mid levels and I voiced that.

This event would be a great case study.

[TheTrials]

Eh, I could've done better. I was convinced around this time yesterday that this thing was going straight to the coast as a severe MCS.

Three days ago I was not impressed with the NAMs look in the mid levels and I voiced that.

This event would be a great case study.

You couldbt see the crap being sucked unto the line.

[LocoAko]

For the NYC/NJ/Eastern PA section of the moderate risk, I'd say it busted. Verified for a slight risk, but not a moderate one. I counted 12 wind reports in NJ. In Western PA, I counted approximately 70-75 wind reports. If one notes the SPC storm report page, it's very clear that the widespread nature of the wind damage decreased rapidly once east of a MDT-BGM line.

The moderate risk 45% wind contour implies that almost 1 out of every 2 locations should receive severe criteria winds. That certainly did not happen anywhere in NJ, NYC or LI. It probably verified for the southern Hudson valley, with those most intense cluster of cells. But I'd say for the bulk of the tristate, the reports indicate that maybe 15% of us experienced severe, so slight risk verified. Radar also supported the much more scattered severe winds once east of Harrisburg-Binghamton.

So overall, I would say the moderate risk verified for the western portion of the risk area, but not for E PA, NJ, NYC, LI. Not a total bust in severe weather either for our area, since we did verify slight risk I think. However, the moderate was definitely overdone for the NJ/NYC region.

No.

The 45% means that there is a 45% chance that a point within 25 miles of your location will see severe criteria winds. Completely different.

[LocoAko]

This thread makes it painfully clear that few in here understand what a watch actually means and/or probablistic forecasting.

[earthlight]

This thread makes it painfully clear that few in here understand what a watch actually means and/or probablistic forecasting.

I stopped trying..the only thing most in this thread care about is the fact that they didn't have severe damage in their yard. So because of that, it's a bust.

[earthlight]

You couldbt see the crap being sucked unto the line.

True, but seeing a slight 500mb height rise on the NAM at 00z Thursday should've been the first tip that maybe things weren't as clear cut as we thought.