Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Worst Forecast Bust for a Severe Weather Outbreak Ever?


Hailstorm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 292
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Albertson is 4 miles from the Queens border bud.

And Yes.

2-1, thanks

(and suppose i concede that NYC is the greatest city, not just on the east coast, but in the country, nay, the world...i'd still have to consider the whole uprooting thing...about a 45% chance most likely)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And again, did I specifically say Sundog in my post? In fact, I am pretty sure I mentioned no names, said "most" (which is not all) and any mention if "you" was a general "you".

My apologies if that was too confusing to figure out

But the word "most" is the issue. When its only 3 or 4 posters even arguing this today! And 1 of them is Sundog.

So you are using the word "most" because of 2-3 posters (sundog excluded as you say).

Anyway. Who cares. This whole entire thread needs to be deleted. It has turned into an off topic thread and ruins the NYC forum.

This has turned into a let's bash NYC region like we are on DBM or OT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2-1, thanks

(and suppose i concede that NYC is the greatest city, not just on the east coast, but in the country, nay, the world...i'd still have to consider the whole uprooting thing...about a 45% chance most likely)

The 45% thing is too confusing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not for weather, though...which is clearly evident in this thread.

Not disagreeing with you there.

Although i do the noreasters, not sure where else gets em as good as we do, maybe SNE, but they tend to stall out more in our vicinity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1.)and? PSU football program will be just fine.

2.)Philly doesnt suck and that isnt the reason why the subforums were split.

3.) You are not better than any other locale.

haha...right.

How many people have you heard go to Philly for a vacation? Has more people than Boston, yet..nobody goes there...i wonder why?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not disagreeing with you there.

Although i do the noreasters, not sure where else gets em as good as we do, maybe SNE, but they tend to stall out more in our vicinity.

SNE has a much more prolific nor'easter history than NYC...no question about that

I also want to say Western New England is more severe weather prone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

haha...right.

How many people have you heard go to Philly for a vacation? Has more people than Boston, yet..nobody goes there...i wonder why?

you need to do some more research. Lots of people go to Philly for vacation there is a lot of history there. boston has tons of things to do on vacation as well. Take off your homer hat for a minute

Link to comment
Share on other sites

you need to do some more research. Lots of people go to Philly for vacation there is a lot of history there. boston has tons of things to do on vacation as well. Take off your homer hat for a minute

ive been to philly countless times for track events or to stay with friends...that's my research.

Come on, you know philly sucks, we all know you are just joking around. you are right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ive been to philly countless times for track events or to stay with friends...that's my research.

Come on, you know philly sucks, we all know you are just joking around. you are right?

It doesn't have you in it so edge goes to Philly right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know its funny John. I wrote 600 times that this was not a case of i didnt get it in my yard and most people. It is such a cop out to say that and its BS because nobody said it. Maybe you can say it again and it will become true?

and to HM, show me a severe report within 25 miles of my location. I wonder where the nearest severe report came from, maybe orange county, 60 miles away?

So...if i did not have a severe report within 25 miles, then is it a bust? When will it be a bust? Im just curious. a 50 mph wind gust is not severe. Show me the closest severe gust and prove me wrong.

Its BS to throw technical TERMS out there, and to try and school people...but show me facts? As an attorney i can use terminology only trials and jefflaw will understand, but it doesnt make me correct.

BUST.

Im on page 4 of this thread and I'm literally puking all over my computer, so excuse me if I missed an unexpected moment of clarity and agreement in the future pages before posting the following:

...but another way you NYC "busted" claimers can look at this is that, even with yesterday's bullish (for this area) moderate 45% wind risk in place, there was still a 55% probability that a given location (and within the 25 mile radius around it) would not see a severe wind gust.. Granted, if not a single severe wind gusts happen in a threat area, you cant fall back on that claim..but in this instance, with several wind damage reports surrounding NYC (and you can even pick many locations within the NYC limits that are within 25 miles of a wind damage report by the way), you cant claim SPC busted. Because that just isnt true... You can say you were disappointed in the over all event, like I was, or that the severity of the winds fell short of high expectations you and many others may have set, but you cant say the MDT risk failed going by the design of the SPC probabilities (even if you want to be annoyingly picky and single out a specific area like NYC proper)

And as for the specific person on Long Island who is being a real douche today, I'm sorry that you are surrounded by water and your severe weather threats can easily be ruined at the last minute...deal with it . :cry::baby:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im on page 4 of this thread and I'm literally puking all over my computer, so excuse me if I missed an unexpected moment of clarity and agreement in the future pages before posting the following:

...but another way you NYC "busted" claimers can look at this is that, even with yesterday's bullish (for this area) moderate 45% wind risk in place, there was still a 55% probability that a given location (and within the 25 mile radius around it) would not see a severe wind gust.. Granted, if not a single severe wind gusts happen in a threat area, you cant fall back on that claim..but in this instance, with several wind damage reports surrounding NYC (and you can even pick many locations within the NYC limits that are within 25 miles of a wind damage report by the way), you cant claim SPC busted. Because that just isnt true... You can say you were disappointed in the over all event, like I was, or that the severity of the winds fell short of high expectations you and many others may have set, but you cant say the MDT risk failed going by the design of the SPC probabilities (even if you want to be annoyingly picky and single out a specific area like NYC proper)

Thank you.

And, since this has turned into something of a regional dogfight, /thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...