Worst Forecast Bust for a Severe Weather Outbreak Ever?

[Hailstorm]

As many of you already know, there have been some profound forecast busts for severe t-storm and tornado outbreaks in our area in the past decade. Some of the busts are more memorable than some others, mainly due to the fact that extremely high expectations were set by some of you for the storms' performance. In this thread, I would like as many members in the NYC sub-forum to chime in on which event was the worst underperformer ever, relative to SPC and local TV forecasts.

As for my pick, I would undoubtedly choose the severe weather episode of June 6, 2010. We all tracked this event on the old Eastern Wx forums for more than 96 hours out. Many of us expected this event to be one of the most prolific severe weather events for the NYC area and the Northeast. To give you a perspective of the severe parameters in place, an 80-knot mid-level jet was forecast to blast through the Northeast, along with 60 knots of bulk shear and a 60-knot low-level jet. The synoptics were thus very favorable for numerous supercells to develop and move through the entire area.

This caused the SPC to label us in a rare moderate risk during that day, with a hatched area of a 45% risk of damaging winds and a non-hatched 10% risk of tornadoes. I believe that the 10% was the highest probability we were ever placed in by the SPC for tornadoes. In fact, the SPC labeled us in a Day 4 severe outlook area, which is very unusual for our area.

During that day, the SPC wasted no time in issuing a near-PDS tornado watch for our area at 10:30 AM. The watch encompassed virtually the whole Northeast from Virginia to Maine! Personally, my heart was racing at this time due to the tremendous excitment in me. However, by 1-2 PM , we all realized something was wrong. Convective debris from an earlier t-storm complex was inhibiting our SBCAPE values between 1000-2000 j/kg. Hence, even non-severe t-storm cells were few and far between. Also, the larger shear values were shifting towards New England. At this point, most of us realized that this outbreak was busting. At the end of the day, only a handful of severe wind reports were documented in New England.

After this event, I recall that some posters were criticizing the SPC for overdoing the severe weather potential. As for me, it was extremely frustrating to see all these dynamics go to a waste, considering that our area rarely sees large-scale ascent like that day.

So, to all of you, I would like for each of you to think of the worst severe weather bust for our area in your experience.

[andyhb]

Not in the area but 4/10/08 was a big one considering the intensity of the system and the strongly worded discussions on D3 and D2.

[SmokeEater]

As many of you already know, there have been some profound forecast busts for severe t-storm and tornado outbreaks in our area in the past decade. Some of the busts are more memorable than some others, mainly due to the fact that extremely high expectations were set by some of you for the storms' performance. In this thread, I would like as many members in the NYC sub-forum to chime in on which event was the worst underperformer ever, relative to SPC and local TV forecasts.

As for my pick, I would undoubtedly choose the severe weather episode of June 6, 2010. We all tracked this event on the old Eastern Wx forums for more than 96 hours out. Many of us expected this event to be one of the most prolific severe weather events for the NYC area and the Northeast. To give you a perspective of the severe parameters in place, an 80-knot mid-level jet was forecast to blast through the Northeast, along with 60 knots of bulk shear and a 60-knot low-level jet. The synoptics were thus very favorable for numerous supercells to develop and move through the entire area.

This caused the SPC to label us in a rare moderate risk during that day, with a hatched area of a 45% risk of damaging winds and a non-hatched 10% risk of tornadoes. I believe that the 10% was the highest probability we were ever placed in by the SPC for tornadoes. In fact, the SPC labeled us in a Day 4 severe outlook area, which is very unusual for our area.

During that day, the SPC wasted no time in issuing a near-PDS tornado watch for our area at 10:30 AM. The watch encompassed virtually the whole Northeast from Virginia to Maine! Personally, my heart was racing at this time due to the tremendous excitment in me. However, by 1-2 PM , we all realized something was wrong. Convective debris from an earlier t-storm complex was inhibiting our SBCAPE values between 1000-2000 j/kg. Hence, even non-severe t-storm cells were few and far between. Also, the larger shear values were shifting towards New England. At this point, most of us realized that this outbreak was busting. At the end of the day, only a handful of severe wind reports were documented in New England.

After this event, I recall that some posters were criticizing the SPC for overdoing the severe weather potential. As for me, it was extremely frustrating to see all these dynamics go to a waste, considering that our area rarely sees large-scale ascent like that day.

So, to all of you, I would like for each of you to think of the worst severe weather bust for our area in your experience.

I remember this event, the tornado probs on that watch were crazy, like 95/60, something high like that. I remember just about having a heart attack when it got issued, lol. Just about PDS territory. David Reimer from the board was in South Jersey for vacation, and we went to North Jersey hoping to chase it. We saw a couple of showers, lol.

[Brian5671]

way too many to list--most of them bust around here.

[LocoAko]

As many of you already know, there have been some profound forecast busts for severe t-storm and tornado outbreaks in our area in the past decade. Some of the busts are more memorable than some others, mainly due to the fact that extremely high expectations were set by some of you for the storms' performance. In this thread, I would like as many members in the NYC sub-forum to chime in on which event was the worst underperformer ever, relative to SPC and local TV forecasts.

As for my pick, I would undoubtedly choose the severe weather episode of June 6, 2010. We all tracked this event on the old Eastern Wx forums for more than 96 hours out. Many of us expected this event to be one of the most prolific severe weather events for the NYC area and the Northeast. To give you a perspective of the severe parameters in place, an 80-knot mid-level jet was forecast to blast through the Northeast, along with 60 knots of bulk shear and a 60-knot low-level jet. The synoptics were thus very favorable for numerous supercells to develop and move through the entire area.

This caused the SPC to label us in a rare moderate risk during that day, with a hatched area of a 45% risk of damaging winds and a non-hatched 10% risk of tornadoes. I believe that the 10% was the highest probability we were ever placed in by the SPC for tornadoes. In fact, the SPC labeled us in a Day 4 severe outlook area, which is very unusual for our area.

During that day, the SPC wasted no time in issuing a near-PDS tornado watch for our area at 10:30 AM. The watch encompassed virtually the whole Northeast from Virginia to Maine! Personally, my heart was racing at this time due to the tremendous excitment in me. However, by 1-2 PM , we all realized something was wrong. Convective debris from an earlier t-storm complex was inhibiting our SBCAPE values between 1000-2000 j/kg. Hence, even non-severe t-storm cells were few and far between. Also, the larger shear values were shifting towards New England. At this point, most of us realized that this outbreak was busting. At the end of the day, only a handful of severe wind reports were documented in New England.

After this event, I recall that some posters were criticizing the SPC for overdoing the severe weather potential. As for me, it was extremely frustrating to see all these dynamics go to a waste, considering that our area rarely sees large-scale ascent like that day.

So, to all of you, I would like for each of you to think of the worst severe weather bust for our area in your experience.

This was definitely my first thought too. I was moving into a new apartment that day so luckily I was distracted and didn't take the full blow of the bust, but I remember it being rough.

[Weathergun]

June 6, 2010, is also at the top of my list. Also the strong EML event on June 1, 2011, which produced the tornadoes in Mass. was a dud around here. Not enough forcing to overcome the cap here.

[blizzardof09]

way too many to list--most of them bust around here.

I second this notion. Its just so damm hard to have any legit severe weather threat materialize in NYC metro especially east. There was one time last year i believe a severe line of storms dropping down from conneticut and to move across the island. Funny thing was we including me on the south shore had better severe parameters than southern CT, but as usual as the storms hit the north shore of LI they started weakening rapidly. In the end i saw some lightning , thunder and a quick downpour that was it. If your east of the city ive learned to not get hopes up for severe weather anymore.

[earthlight]

There have been so many Moderate Risks which have produced nothing around here that I'm beginning to lose count.

[Brian5671]

sometimes the best outbreaks are those in which it's largely a surprise.

[blizzardof09]

sometimes the best outbreaks are those in which it's largely a surprise.

Thats really all its been this year, our marginal svr days are actually turning out to be our best. When spc issue watches, risks etc. Its been the kiss of death this year.

[bluewave]

Some of our biggest events are those that over perform what an outlook suggests.

Just goes to show the challenges involved in severe forecasting for the NY Bight region.

http://www.spc.noaa....00916_2000.html

http://www.erh.noaa....s/09162010.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070808_1200.html

http://www.erh.noaa....tornado_NYC.txt

[Isotherm]

sometimes the best outbreaks are those in which it's largely a surprise.

Yes, this method never seems to fail. See text days are often more active than mdt risks.

I find our best summer storms are from cold pool ULL events, then differential advection (MCS activity). Cold fronts usually perform the worst for city and coast.

[earthlight]

7/18/06 (I think that was the date) was one of a few events which probably should've been higher-probability forecasts but instead were left as slight risks without any significant probabilities.

[NYCSuburbs]

June 6, 2010 definitely a bust worth mentioning. 45% risk of damaging winds and all that came through is a tiny 5 minute downpour.

There have been too many smaller scale busts for me to remember, such as all the times when places surrounding NE NJ get rain but not a drop falls here, but a smaller scale bust was 8/5/10. The area was initially in a slight risk, which was removed in the evening as no storm showed up except for parts of CT.

[bluewave]

7/18/06 (I think that was the date) was one of a few events which probably should've been higher-probability forecasts but instead were left as slight risks without any significant probabilities.

That was one of the most unstable 0Z soundings that I can remember around here. That evening a gust front

raced out ahead of the storms and caused a lot of blowing sand and dust in Long Beach.

[earthlight]

That was one of the most unstable 0Z soundings that I can remember around here. That evening a gust front

raced out ahead of the storms and caused a lot of blowing sand and dust in Long Beach.

Yep, I remember that gust front. There was a supercell which started the day over Northeast PA and produced some big hail, and then storms along a boundary in North & Central NJ. Central NJ got absolutely hammered.

[Hailstorm]

Some of our biggest events are those that over perform what an outlook suggests.

Just goes to show the challenges involved in severe forecasting for the NY Bight  region.

http://www.spc.noaa....00916_2000.html

http://www.erh.noaa....s/09162010.html

http://www.spc.noaa....70808_1200.html

http://www.erh.noaa....tornado_NYC.txt

In your humble opinion, do you think that this irony of NYC overperforming on "See Text" days is purely coincidential or stems from the fact that many local meteorologists including the ones in the SPC do not yet fully understand all the required favorable synoptic ingredients that are needed in order to fuel our most memorable outbreaks? If I recall correctly, I can't list any other major American metropolitan area that have both overperformed and underperformed the SPC's outlooks as much as our area has. We overperformed plenty of times in the 1990s, May 19, 2006 during that funnel cloud over the NY harbor, August 2007 during the Staten Island and Brooklyn tornado, March 29, 2009 during the severe hail event over the southern boroughs, September 16, 2010 during the Brooklyn and Queens tornadoes and on August 1, 2011 during the 3-inch diameter hailstorm on the Queens/Nassau country border.

[forkyfork]

the main reason june 2010 was a bust was that the shear became less favorable as instability increased

[Hailstorm]

I remember this event, the tornado probs on that watch were crazy, like 95/60, something high like that. I remember just about having a heart attack when it got issued, lol. Just about PDS territory. David Reimer from the board was in South Jersey for vacation, and we went to North Jersey hoping to chase it. We saw a couple of showers, lol.

To be incredibly honest with you, considering those high percentages in a tornado watch, I was expecting to see at least 5 tornado vortex signatures on the radar simultaneously popping up over the area at any given time. However, we did not even see any during the whole "outbreak" which made this fiasco even worse. If the area busts on forecast tornado touchdowns, then at least the radar should show me impressive radar returns and velocities.

[forkyfork]

the timing was off by about 9 hours. the prefrontal trough passed at ~15z

[SnowGoose69]

There was an epic bust in August of I believe 1990, perhaps it was 89. They went nuts with tornado watches out for the area from like 9pm-4am and there was nasty severe weather all afternoon over western NY and PA. But as the area came through, it basically congealed into a squall line and we had a few places gust to like 40-45 mph, by the time it reached Eastern LI at 2am or so where I was it barely woke me up from my sleep. I remember for sure it was on a Saturday night but cannot remember the date.

[Stormlover74]

There was a higher than average number of tornadoes in this area in 89-90. The July outbreak, November '89 with the downburst upstate and then one in October of 1990.

It does amaze me how everything can come together perfectly but one component can mess the whole thing up. On the other hand when nobody's expecting much we get an outbreak that takes us by surprise. And we still just don't know when a particular storm or complex is going to hold together, weaken or explode at the last minute like we saw this past Saturday.

There was an epic bust in August of I believe 1990, perhaps it was 89. They went nuts with tornado watches out for the area from like 9pm-4am and there was nasty severe weather all afternoon over western NY and PA. But as the area came through, it basically congealed into a squall line and we had a few places gust to like 40-45 mph, by the time it reached Eastern LI at 2am or so where I was it barely woke me up from my sleep. I remember for sure it was on a Saturday night but cannot remember the date.

[earthlight]

Given the events of the last 5-6 years, part of me wonders if we'll see an outbreak along the lines of Labor Day 98 or the tornadoes of 23 years ago yesterday again anytime soon.

Learning about the processes which drive these events makes it even more obvious that those types of events are unbelievably rare in the northeast...I would argue more rare than a KU by far.

Given how rare they are, really puts into perspective how active the late 90s and early 2000's were around here for severe weather.

[LocoAko]

In your humble opinion, do you think that this irony of NYC overperforming on "See Text" days is purely coincidential or stems from the fact that many local meteorologists including the ones in the SPC do not yet fully understand all the required favorable synoptic ingredients that are needed in order to fuel our most memorable outbreaks? If I recall correctly, I can't list any other major American metropolitan area that have both overperformed and underperformed the SPC's outlooks as much as our area has. We overperformed plenty of times in the 1990s, May 19, 2006 during that funnel cloud over the NY harbor, August 2007 during the Staten Island and Brooklyn tornado, March 29, 2009 during the severe hail event over the southern boroughs, September 16, 2010 during the Brooklyn and Queens tornadoes and on August 1, 2011 during the 3-inch diameter hailstorm on the Queens/Nassau country border.

I don't have a scientific answer for you, but I'm pretty sure the only reason it seems our area overperforms and underperforms the most is because you're paying the most attention to it. Busts and overperformances still occur all over the country (and often times the overperformance in another area means truly severe weather).

[earthlight]

I don't have a scientific answer for you, but I'm pretty sure the only reason it seems our area overperforms and underperforms the most is because you're paying the most attention to it. Busts and overperformances still occur all over the country (and often times the overperformance in another area means truly severe weather).

Agreed, and a lot of it has to do with who is affected. If there's a see text and a hailer tracks over NYC and Queens, everyone on this forum will be going nuts and calling it a huge over performing event and the best of the year.

It's all relative, really.

[ag3]

Given the events of the last 5-6 years, part of me wonders if we'll see an outbreak along the lines of Labor Day 98 or the tornadoes of 23 years ago yesterday again anytime soon.

Learning about the processes which drive these events makes it even more obvious that those types of events are unbelievably rare in the northeast...I would argue more rare than a KU by far.

Given how rare they are, really puts into perspective how active the late 90s and early 2000's were around here for severe weather.

No event will ever or ever has outperformed the 3 tornadoes and miles wide Macroburst that occurred in Queens and parts of Brooklyn in 2010.

[Stormlover74]

Because of the location and amount of people affected yes.

No event will ever or ever has outperformed the 3 tornadoes and miles wide Macroburst that occurred in Queens and parts of Brooklyn in 2010.

[earthlight]

No event will ever or ever has outperformed the 3 tornadoes and miles wide Macroburst that occurred in Queens and parts of Brooklyn in 2010.

Proves the point I just made in the post above.

[bluewave]

In your humble opinion, do you think that this irony of NYC overperforming on "See Text" days is purely coincidential or stems from the fact that many local meteorologists including the ones in the SPC do not yet fully understand all the required favorable synoptic ingredients that are needed in order to fuel our most memorable outbreaks? If I recall correctly, I can't list any other major American metropolitan area that have both overperformed and underperformed the SPC's outlooks as much as our area has. We overperformed plenty of times in the 1990s, May 19, 2006 during that funnel cloud over the NY harbor, August 2007 during the Staten Island and Brooklyn tornado, March 29, 2009 during the severe hail event over the southern boroughs, September 16, 2010 during the Brooklyn and Queens tornadoes and on August 1, 2011 during the 3-inch diameter hailstorm on the Queens/Nassau country border.

My guess is that the ocean influence coupled with the uncertainty of warm frontal positions in advance around

the region makes severe forecasting challenging here.

[Brian5671]

Without a doubt, 7/26/12