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July 9-20 2012 Obs and Discussion


mattmfm

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You got that right -- 76 on the low this morning. So why do you think NWS and Weather.com got it so wrong?

Probably grid scale. I doubt they bother tweaking the forecast for a point measurement in the middle of a river, no matter whether it is the official climo station. Unless someone at LWX informs us different.

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Probably grid scale. I doubt they bother tweaking the forecast for a point measurement in the middle of a river, no matter whether it is the official climo station. Unless someone at LWX informs us different.

Thanks, that makes sense, although it is a little disappointing that both NWS and Weather.com would use a one size fits all forecast even for DCA. So, the streak of non-negative departures at DCA will be extended today to 16, with no end in sight.

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Flash flood watches up for the higher terrain and Shenandoah Valley. FFG is not too terribly low, but slow somewhat sluggish storm motions and a loaded column may create some issues.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...

SHENANDOAH VLY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THRU MIDNIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS

OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARW4N/NMM4N CONTINUE TO DEPICT

CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTN... WHERE BREAKS IN

CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY. STORMS LIKELY FOCUS

ALONG THE WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. SETUP SUPPORTS

POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS AS STORM MOTION WILL BE ALMOST PARALLEL

TO THE BOUNDARY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCH EWD INTO THE CITIES...

BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER

ATTM.

I know that a few areas got hit pretty good earlier in the week and I don't wish for flooding, but I'm hoping some of the heavier stuff makes it here.

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Thanks, that makes sense, although it is a little disappointing that both NWS and Weather.com would use a one size fits all forecast even for DCA. So, the streak of non-negative departures at DCA will be extended today to 16, with no end in sight.

I jinxed the streak. Today's maximum at DCA was 88 (1 below normal) and minimum was 71 (normal), and so we had a negative departure of -0.5.

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Cooler temps and cloud cover are deceiving. Have been out doing yard work and my shirt is soaked on the back. Just took the kids out some water and they finished off an entire pitcher.

I did several hours of mowing/trimming/weeding this afternoon. High 70's temps and high 60's dewpoints felt really muggy. What was even worse was no breeze whatsoever.. I never recorded a wind above 5 mph the whole day which is very unusual here.

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Just visited folks in Pikesville. Seems to be a big difference in how much greener the grass is in P'ville than Columbia, which is featuring mostly shades of brown.

I can't explain it, but water is dirt cheap here. The lawns you saw must have been watered. ;)

But seriously, you are probably right. Our shortfall here is only in the last three weeks during the extreme heat, where as for areas just south, you all missed out on some of the storms we got a few weeks ago.

As far as this afternoon and evening is concerned, we got zip, but hopefully you guys did well. If we don't get anything tomorrow then I'm going to have to resort to the sprinkler.

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Haven't had a lot of rain here. 2.84" in June and 1.06" in July. But there hasn't been more than 5 days at any point without some rain. Grass is greener than it is a lot of mid-summers here. I have had to cut it every week since mid-March.

Wow...I haven't cut mine in four weeks, and I doubt it'll need to be cut in the next four or five days. If we get some good storms in the next few days I may have to cut it next weekend. If not, then it might be another 10 days before I'll have to consider mowing.

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