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July 9-20 2012 Obs and Discussion


mattmfm

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looks like they should make it.. environment is pretty decent out ahead of them. we'll be losing that somewhat but would think they'll maintain at least. coverage might be iffy as far as stronger parts around here.

Good appetizer for the "1-2" of rain" I was promised tomorrow by WTOP.

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looks like they should make it.. environment is pretty decent out ahead of them. we'll be losing that somewhat but would think they'll maintain at least. coverage might be iffy as far as stronger parts around here.

Nice call. Looks as if they are strengthing some as they come out of the mountains, Especially along 81 from HGR to MRB to OKV

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Nice call. Looks as if they are strengthing some as they come out of the mountains, Especially along 81 from HGR to MRB to OKV

still 2-3k cape (or was) right up against the ridges. could see a svr warning somewhere out near you maybe. i wouldnt expect that here except lwx overwarns dc so it's always possible. :P either way with sunset time to ripen is short.

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still 2-3k cape (or was) right up against the ridges. could see a svr warning somewhere out near you maybe. i wouldnt expect that here except lwx overwarns dc so it's always possible. :P either way with sunset time to ripen is short.

Think they strengthen a bit then start to weaken as they reach the cities doorstep. ML lapse rates aren't great to withstand anything after dark. We do have some shear on our side plus the days instability.

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Would the outflow from the Baltimore cell(s) have any effect on the line as it approches the DC metro area?

probably not much.. maybe where they intersect but it's not that long of a boundary.. perhaps somewhere in loudoun/moco. some little cells firing behind it.

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still 2-3k cape (or was) right up against the ridges. could see a svr warning somewhere out near you maybe. i wouldnt expect that here except lwx overwarns dc so it's always possible. :P either way with sunset time to ripen is short.

1500-2000 MLCAPE east of BR per 00z SPC meso and 1500-2000 SBCAPE... LI's are good at -6... so pretty much heavy rain and good lightning from the line probably... LL Lapse Rates are okay enough for some wind gusts (7.0-7.5C/KM still)...PWATS of just over 2.0 pretty much ensures we should see some torrential downpours as well

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The section of the line between fred md and front royal has improved nicely the last 45 mins. My hot pepper plants could sure use the rain. I was too lazy to water today and it looks like my laziness will be rewarded.

Peppers - especially the hot ones - usually do well with a period of heat and dryness. Not so much that they wilt for days, but a little droopiness will never hurt.

That said, my garden (and lawn) could use the rain right about now.

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Here is some dual-POLE radar via Radarscope; "Differential phase tilt #1"

My impression is that downsloping near Frederick, MD is causing the classic DC slit.

These storms look thin and reedy. Of course, right around 6 pm the heavens opened up here; we already had our dump so this would be round two.

It's actually Dual-Pol as in Dual Polarization and there's downsloping everywhere along the blue ridge, it's most likely caused by the cold pool stacked up against the first ridge at the surface caused by outflow from the cells in Carrol county earlier today. ;)

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