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July 9-20 2012 Obs and Discussion


mattmfm

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
453 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
 CENTRAL ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
 NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
 ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
 SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 452 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE
 EXTENDING FROM SOUTH GATE TO BOWIE TO ROSSLYN...AND WERE MOVING
 EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP
 TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 PASADENA...
 GREEN HAVEN...
 PRINCE GEORGES STADIUM...
 SEVERNA PARK...
 GREEN HAVEN...
 LARGO...
 KETTERING...
 LAKE SHORE...
 PAROLE...
 FORESTVILLE...

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From sky obs, looks like it is mainly missing East Columbia just to the south. Plenty of dark clouds and booming thunder, but sky is darker to south.

I'm getting lots of thunder, but just some light rain (big fat raindrops). Pavement not even all the way wet.

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they put up a FFW WAAAAAY easier than when it poured last week. im sorta lost with how NWS decides to do stuff.

i think if you had an algorithm only issue warnings you'd have consistency but probably at the expense of accuracy, however, with the human element every forecaster has a certain threshold and they can be biased from recent events (or their expectation of what they thought might occur on a given day)....EDIT: (any some forecasters are just better trained....and some offices have better SOO/forecaster interaction in training)

i use to jump down the throats of some forecasters I worked around when I lived in Huntsville but in reality it was much easier to critique from my desk than to be sitting on the warning desk at a WFO

EDIT: and by no means was I making a statement about your frustration..it's completely warranted in most cases with LWX

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