WeatherFox Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 106. Lets discuss with meteorological science how close we will come tomorrow. NWS Forecasting 100 at this time for Saturday, July 7, 2012. Highest 106 July 9, 1936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Several months ago, I thought of starting a thread about whether KNYC's all time record daily maximum is unbreakable. It would take the perfect set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted July 6, 2012 Author Share Posted July 6, 2012 Several months ago, I thought of starting a thread about whether KNYC's all time record daily maximum is unbreakable. It would take the perfect set up. I agree with you. Some positives IMO concerning tomorrows high temp: 1. Hot air source nearby 2. Westerly surface winds 3. MOS trend 4. Central Parks high temp today And negatives: 1. Periodic cloud cover From the New York Times, some history: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/03/nyregion/03heat.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 the last few years came close...here's the hottest temperature list... Hottest Max Temperatures... 106 7/09/1936 104 7/22/2011 104 7/21/1977 104 8/07/1918 103 7/03/1966 103 8/09/2001 103 8/26/1948 103 7/06/2010 102 7/23/2011 102 7/04/1949 102 7/10/1993 102 7/10/1936 102 7/15/1995 (plus other years I think NYC will break that record some day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I agree with you. Some positives IMO concerning tomorrows high temp: 1. Hot air source nearby 2. Westerly surface winds 3. MOS trend 4. Central Parks high temp today And negatives: 1. Periodic cloud cover From the New York Times, some history: http://www.nytimes.c...ion/03heat.html I don't know much about data that long ago, but looking at the closest and most recent day, July 22 last year which also set the all time record Newark high temperature, Central Park had a high of 104. The set up from that day was very supportive of hot temperatures, with a favorable wind direction and widespread 850mb temps above 20C, getting up to around 24C if I remember correctly. Then there's the heat surge for tomorrow which the 18z GFS (link) can be compared to. It has some similarities to 7/22/11, including the widespread 850mb temps above 20C and the favorable wind direction, but the 850mb temps are a little cooler and thicknesses aren't as high as they were on 7/22. The ridge also appears to have been better positioned during 7/22 than for tomorrow. The positives will likely bring the park at least close to the upper 90s range, maybe 100 degrees if the recent trend of ending up cooler than surrounding areas doesn't repeat itself tomorrow, but if the park can't even match last year's hottest date, I don't see it breaking the record of 106 degrees at least this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 the last few years came close...here's the hottest temperature list... Hottest Max Temperatures... 106 7/09/1936 104 7/22/2011 104 7/21/1977 104 8/07/1918 103 7/03/1966 103 8/09/2001 103 8/26/1948 103 7/06/2010 102 7/23/2011 102 7/04/1949 102 7/10/1993 102 7/10/1936 102 7/15/1995 (plus other years I think NYC will break that record some day... There are other years but one is in September of 1953 where it hit 102, I believe there was 4, 100 degree days that month which for September is mind boggling. Old records made to be broken. But it's funny how many heat records go way back to 60- 100 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 July 21st and 22nd have the most 100 degree days... Highest max. 104 in 1977.. 102 in 1930.... 102 in 1980.... 102 in 1991.... 100 in 1926.... 100 in 1957.... ..99 in 1885.... ..98 in 1923.... ..98 in 1934 ..98 in 1955 7/22. Highest max. 104 in 2011.. 101 in 1957.. 100 in 1926.. 100 in 1955.. ..98 in 1918.. ..97 in 1961.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 I don't know much about data that long ago, but looking at the closest and most recent day, July 22 last year which also set the all time record Newark high temperature, Central Park had a high of 104. The set up from that day was very supportive of hot temperatures, with a favorable wind direction and widespread 850mb temps above 20C, getting up to around 24C if I remember correctly. Good post, thanks! I attached a forecast GFS sounding for 12Z tomorrow that shows 850mb temps at ~22C and the light westerly winds. Then there's the heat surge for tomorrow which the 18z GFS (link) can be compared to. It has some similarities to 7/22/11, including the widespread 850mb temps above 20C and the favorable wind direction, but the 850mb temps are a little cooler and thicknesses aren't as high as they were on 7/22. The ridge also appears to have been better positioned during 7/22 than for tomorrow. The positives will likely bring the park at least close to the upper 90s range, maybe 100 degrees if the recent trend of ending up cooler than surrounding areas doesn't repeat itself tomorrow, but if the park can't even match last year's hottest date, I don't see it breaking the record of 106 degrees at least this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I'm not that impressed with this one. Putting aside the model distinctions from 7/22/11, my understanding is that the potential for the hottest temperatures here occurs when the airmass source region is dry air from the northwest (yes, the upper midwest or Ontario), i.e. July, 1936 and July, 1966, maximizing the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, not the more humid west or west southwest based sources such as the prospective one. In addition, the weak upper air trough that's been persistently maintained over the NE would also limit the duration of any significant heating here. You're not going to be able to get what you need in just one or two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Chicago hit 103 today with dew points in the mid/upper 60s. I'm impressed - this airmass definitely means business. However, based on model data, it looks like 850mb temperatures will be about 1-2C cooler than what Chicago experienced today. They had 850's around +23/24c; we'll likely have +21/22c for tomorrow afternoon. The end result will probably be a slightly cooler sfc temp, which I think NYC tops out at 99F, just shy of the century mark. Not an ideal set-up for over 100F temps in the park as the mid level ridge isn't ideally positioned. Additionally, wind direction isn't ideal (could be a bit more northerly - we'll be looking at near due west wind) and sky coverage may not be ideal either (late afternoon CU development, which almost always hinders 100F+ readings). My guess is EWR will score the win at 102, LGA 101, NYC 99, and JFK 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Chicago hit 103 today with dew points in the mid/upper 60s. I'm impressed - this airmass definitely means business. However, based on model data, it looks like 850mb temperatures will be about 1-2C cooler than what Chicago experienced today. They had 850's around +23/24c; we'll likely have +21/22c for tomorrow afternoon. The end result will probably be a slightly cooler sfc temp, which I think NYC tops out at 99F, just shy of the century mark. Not an ideal set-up for over 100F temps in the park as the mid level ridge isn't ideally positioned. Additionally, wind direction isn't ideal (could be a bit more northerly - we'll be looking at near due west wind) and sky coverage may not be ideal either (late afternoon CU development, which almost always hinders 100F+ readings). My guess is EWR will score the win at 102, LGA 101, NYC 99, and JFK 95. Thanks for your good analysis and forecast. Good luck on your scienctific guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Thanks for your good analysis and forecast. Good luck on your scienctific guesses Well it looks like my JFK and NYC numbers were reversed -- 99 for the former and 95 for the latter. 95 for LGA as well. I got one right with the 102 at EWR. Clouds spoiled the heat from NYC NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Well it looks like my JFK and NYC numbers were reversed -- 99 for the former and 95 for the latter. 95 for LGA as well. I got one right with the 102 at EWR. Clouds spoiled the heat from NYC NE. NYC and LGA came in at 97... 98 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Newark N.J. highest temperature... 108 7/22/2011 105 9/02/1953 105 8/09/2001 105 7/10/1993 105 7/08/1993 105 7/o4/1949 105 7/03/1966 104 7/15/1995 104 7/09/1936 104 7/09/1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Newark N.J. highest temperature... 108 7/22/2011 105 9/02/1953 105 8/09/2001 105 7/10/1993 105 7/08/1993 105 7/o4/1949 105 7/03/1966 104 7/15/1995 104 7/09/1936 104 7/09/1993 7/6/2010 deserves an * (honorable mention) when readings reached 105/106 but were later revised down to 103. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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