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Pattern Reversal...About To Turn Wet


FoothillsNC

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Nearly an additional inch of rain has fallen here along he escarpment in the past 3 hours...Asheville has been missing out the past couple days...not any more :flood: I am a little suprised that GSP hasn't pulled the trigger on some Flood Watches for their WNC Counties. It may be fairly constant rain for the mountains through the evening...gonna be some good totals coming out of this event by the end of the week.

GSP_loop.gif

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The NW piedmont has been in the dry slot all day, though. It seems the rain shield can't advance much further east than Morganton. I'm hoping (and it appears as if) those showers make a gradual transition over this way, but we'll see...

I had an even 1.50 inches in the gauge for calendar day July 10: about half of that fell between 3:00 and 3:30 AM, and the other half fell between 3:00 and 3:30 PM. Just two insane deluges 12 hours apart. Interesting.

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Thanks, Robert. I'm not as convinced as you are, given that we totally missed out on a lot of action yesterday. IMBY, I have had only 1.99" since June 1, which is tremendously below normal. I mow the lawn every 2 weeks just to keep the weeds down.

I also think the HPC maps are out to lunch. This is not fall or winter. This is summer, and convection drives the rainfall processes. Without widespread MCS's moving through, we cannot expect "pop up" thunderstorms to produce the widespread amounts they are showing. And taking yesterday as an example, some places will get hit and many others won't.

I do think Wednesday is our best chance...but 5-10" seems crazy to me given the dry pattern preceding this event and that often dry soils feed back to the atmosphere. Drought wants to remain drought. It takes a heck of system to alter drought and I just don't see this as being the "one."

Are you saying that it was only convection driving the rain all day in WNC? Just curious...

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Hmmm...Wonder where the rain may set up later this evening? With these outflow boundaries shooting northward from the coast and southeast from the Upstate...my gut feeling says the area between Columbia and Charlotte could fill in later tonight. Maybe extend that eastward toward the Pee Dee and Southeastern NC.

CAE_loop.gif

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Rained off and on all night. Picked up an additional half inch since yesterday afternoon. By the looks of the radar it is going to be another very wet day. Asheville had some major problems with flooding yesterday and if this band moves over Western North Carolina there could be a lot more problems pop up. Everybody have a great day and keep alert!

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Nearly an additional inch of rain has fallen here along he escarpment in the past 3 hours...Asheville has been missing out the past couple days...not any more :flood: I am a little suprised that GSP hasn't pulled the trigger on some Flood Watches for their WNC Counties. It may be fairly constant rain for the mountains through the evening...gonna be some good totals coming out of this event by the end of the week.

2 inches of rain today! We had a deluge.

Just saw some video on WLOS...apparently parts of Downtown Asheville had some significant drainage issues.

Here is a link to a story about yesterdays storm in the Asheville Citizen-Times.

http://www.citizen-t...|text|Frontpage

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Almost 4" here the past 5 days. This afternoon/evening looks like another fairly widespread event, then it seems like it will get drier the next two days after that. Then the new Euro brings in the Atlantic upper low from the east, so next week should be wetter again, although perhaps not quite as wet as this week was.

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This may not be the best of maps but in a general sense it shows who really cashed in over the past week and who got snubbed a little bit. But at least everybody got some measurable rainfall...

clt.gif

Could we repeat this cycle again starting late next week? GFS wants to lay down another front in the same general region on Friday/Saturday followed by more weakness aloft over the area.

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CAE's total for the week is 4.69 :wub:

Great news, especially for central SC. I think SC will do ok this month thanks mostly to the southeast flow/Bermuda pattern. Thats a pattern that has been hard to come by most Summers, atleast for any decent length of time, since really 2005 and since 1998 only a handful of weeks had this pattern. It's the norm/climo though, or used to be.

Glad to see many areas got some decent totals. I have 5.53" for the month, and just over 3" this week. Here's a look at the US as a whole and the Southeast, per precip analysis pages. The reason central and south GA , part of Alabama and north Florida never got more is mostly because how the dynamics and shear zone laid almost stationary across the Carolinas stretching across the mountains and back southwest to east Texas...that area was a constant focus, and unfortunately the storms were'nt quite as widespread as I thought they'd be in part of Al/Ga/FL. However, more good Bermuda flow is plainly evident, on sat/rad.

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As you can see on the images, the Southeast is the wettest place in the US lately. GFS forecasts this to continue for most of the month. The ridge out west will eventually work further west, allowing a little bit of troughing in the East, but that will mean another front comes to East Texas through Carolinas and stalls by next weekend, and once again be a good focus for pretty widespread storms a couple days. Eventually a weakness is shown again in the Southeast or Gulf States beyond 7 days, sandwiched between the 2 big ridges, so I think overall, we're in for atleast decent chances at daily convection and sometimes nocturnal storms when the next front arrives. No closed highs over us, no abnormally warm 850's, and no strong downslope or west winds at the surface, so the good news is rain chances are with us for a long time. Hope those areas that havent' had much yet get some more, in time with this setup eventually they will.

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This may not be the best of maps but in a general sense it shows who really cashed in over the past week and who got snubbed a little bit. But at least everybody got some measurable rainfall...

clt.gif

Could we repeat this cycle again starting late next week? GFS wants to lay down another front in the same general region on Friday/Saturday followed by more weakness aloft over the area.

That map is way overdone for me but I can understand why. I was missed repeatedly slightly west, slightly east and slightly south. 1.09" for the entire event if I include the .03 deluge about an hour ago.

EDIT: lol I forgot slightly north the first night when Greensboro got flooded.

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