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Pattern Reversal...About To Turn Wet


FoothillsNC

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nothing's changed,

Thanks, Robert. I'm not as convinced as you are, given that we totally missed out on a lot of action yesterday. IMBY, I have had only 1.99" since June 1, which is tremendously below normal. I mow the lawn every 2 weeks just to keep the weeds down.

I also think the HPC maps are out to lunch. This is not fall or winter. This is summer, and convection drives the rainfall processes. Without widespread MCS's moving through, we cannot expect "pop up" thunderstorms to produce the widespread amounts they are showing. And taking yesterday as an example, some places will get hit and many others won't.

I do think Wednesday is our best chance...but 5-10" seems crazy to me given the dry pattern preceding this event and that often dry soils feed back to the atmosphere. Drought wants to remain drought. It takes a heck of system to alter drought and I just don't see this as being the "one."

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We didn't get a drop of rain yesterday afternoon of evening, so we busted at that time. But around 1 or 2 am it stormed for well over an hour... gotta love stationary cells. It's still raining some this morning. Probably hit at least an inch or two so far.

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Geez people...this is a long duration event. Nobody is calling for heavy rains all in one swoop, it will be a cumulative process. I'm betting by the time Friday come around Robert will be showing a precip estimate map that lines up pretty well with the area that he targeted (Central TN, SoApps/Carolina Foothills and Western Piedmont, SW Virginia) for heavy rainfall.

Will totals be 100 percent accurate down to the nearest neighborhood? No...He even noted that in his discussion...

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Gald it's going to be cooler for a while. The storms yesterday were a dud in my neck of the woods, though. It rained hard for about five minutes last night and that was it. Seems these storm systems this spring and summer have been overhyped more often than not. The storms seem VERY hit or miss.

I think the rain totals will be far less then models said. We got 1/10 yesterday and last night. And radar looks like it kepping the action north into VA.

I believe it's a little too early to be debunking any forecasts or predictions, either from models or from people. It's only day 2 of this week, and it's just now past noon. This afternoon could bring all kinds of rain. In fact, it's really starting to blossom all over NC at the moment. So, why don't we hold off on the doom and gloom, cancelling, and failing for the moment? Let it play out a little... Give the forecasts some air...

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I believe it's a little too early to be debunking any forecasts or predictions, either from models or from people.

You're forgetting to factor in the Burns 1st law of forecasting.

You can wait to long to be considered correct but It is never too early to be wrong.

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I take back my morning post.... 0.68 inches in the last 2 hours. And a few lightning stikes that were way to close for comfort. Neighbor had a pine struck.... that thing blew apart, then we lost power for 10 mins.

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Had a little negative attitude forwards this rainy week thing too,after fail yesterday,but now have 1.87 in the gauge since about 330 ,and still pouring.its not widespread,but you get under one of these slow moving storms,,and you get a lot in a hurry! I hope everyone gets one or two of these storms over the next few days.

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Nothing again so far today. Had some sprinkles and a 10 minute shower at work around noon in RTP. Hardly nothing here at home. Seems like all the rain is to the south in the sandhills and at the coast. But WRAL still keeps hyping it for central NC.

Nice downpour here. Almost an inch of rain. Power cut out briefly from the storm which was so obvious given the intensity of the lightning. That storm is now severe warned. Still windy here gusting to 30mph now. We only had a 20% chance today.

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We have not been as fortunate on the East side of the state. I should say... its not been as widely covered. Last night was the better night for us so far this week. My personal home has not gotten as much as the homes 10 miles to my NW.

The Lake Lanier basin has been well served this week and for that we are greatful!

Here is the 3 day total, 24 hour total and as I stood on the ball field last night watching this massive anvil head roll in, which eventually put on a 4th of July cloud to ground lightning show that was really impressive.

post-1314-0-87253600-1342018377_thumb.gi

post-1314-0-82714300-1342018415_thumb.gi

post-1314-0-51475500-1342018508_thumb.jp

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