Ian Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 How did MET/MAV perform in the previous couple heat waves there? I remember MN_Trans saying that the NAM did pretty well (so I assume MET was decent). I Both have been atrocious up here going way too warm, but in the core of the heat dome it can be a different story. MET has DCA at 103F and MAV at 100F...12z and 18z number respectively though, as the new 00z MET should be out fairly soon. the nam/met was better last friday than the gfs but was still cool by maybe 2 degrees 24 hours out. i think i've generally been leaning on the nam short term lately. actually my method for my first temp prediction can be found by checking 12z data and reading my first sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm sure this winter we will be challenging our all time low temp of -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Is the NAM like the Pittsburgh Pirates?...Sucked for 20 years and is having a good spring and summer before it completely falls apart after the AS Break, trades all its good players and calls up minor leaguers in September just in time for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm sure this winter we will be challenging our all time low temp of -15 The last record low I can see for DCA in the months of DJFM is 1/19/94. That is a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The last record low I can see for DCA in the months of DJFM is 1/19/94. That is a long time. Total threadjack but that air mass was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Is the NAM like the Pittsburgh Pirates?...Sucked for 20 years and is having a good spring and summer before it completely falls apart after the AS Break, trades all its good players and calls up minor leaguers in September just in time for winter i think the nam is almost always the best once you hit 24 hours... not with winter storms per se but tempwise etc. there are certain patterns not so much. i think overall it's done really well with temps lately--at least mos. part of it is just choosing whichever the highest temps you see though and running with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Total threadjack but that air mass was amazing. Similarly impressive to this airmass on the standard dev level...to keep it relevant. It wasn't a cheap vulnerable low temp above 0F...it was solidly below 0F. What did DCA make last year? 104, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 OZ MET with DCA. 102 IAD. 103 BWI. 104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: 103 IAD: 103 BWI: 104 DCA high @ 2:35 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Similarly impressive to this airmass on the standard dev level...to keep it relevant. It wasn't a cheap vulnerable low temp above 0F...it was solidly below 0F. What did DCA make last year? 104, right? yes..104 last year and last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 yes..104 last year and last week That's my guess for DCA then. Maybe 103. I can't guess on the other two...do not know enough about them. I only know DCA enough to guess because of your departure threads. I'll make 103F my official guess, but I'm afraid my cool bias may be preventing me from going 104F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 104 is the new 102 so it's a logical place to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 8/17/97 probably isn't even legit because of the weird heat burst in an inferior air mass. 105 would be dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 That's my guess for DCA then. Maybe 103. I can't guess on the other two...do not know enough about them. I only know DCA enough to guess because of your departure threads. I'll make 103F my official guess, but I'm afraid my cool bias may be preventing me from going 104F. 103 sounds like a pretty darn good guess based on the forecasted 24C 850's..I'll go with 103 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 8/17/97 probably isn't even legit because of the weird heat burst in an inferior air mass. 105 would be dirty. What happened with that...was there convection nearby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 What happened with that...was there convection nearby? I think so. Ian knows. I'm on the metro now but the metars are strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 We're going to pop a 102/82 and nobody is going to give a sh-it. We probably won't reach freezing until like January 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA:103 IAD: 104 BWI105 High time 3:20pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 We're going to pop a 102/82 and nobody is going to give a sh-it. We probably won't reach freezing until like January 14th. Something weird will probably happen like a 500dm anomaly block and DCA gets 24F on Nov 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 MAV still going 100F for DCA on Saturday....just so Ian doesn't snipe me for mentioning winter. (zwyts brought it up first) Top 3 for 7/7...102F in 2010, 99F in 1991 and 98F in 1993 (and previous years). Should be able to break 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think so. Ian knows. I'm on the metro now but the metars are strange. im not sure.. is that the day when it shows mist all day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 im not sure.. is that the day when it shows mist all day? must be thinking of a different day http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA must have been a day before a front. aug/sep have some really sneaky heat.. frontal days can be big. edit: yeah, 102 day before 82 day after -- dunno enough about it but could see how it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: Earths inner core 105 IAD: Hell 103 BWI: the Sun 106 Time: death 3:18pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: 104 IAD: 104 BWI: 104 DCA high @ 3:59 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: 104 IAD: 102 BWI: 103 DCA high time... 1:35p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: 103 IAD: 102 BWI: 104 DCA high @ 3:29 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: 103 IAD: 101 BWI: 101 3:42pm @ DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA 105 IAD 102 BWI 104 Time: 3:47 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 DCA: 104 IAD: 101 BWI: 105 Time: 3:19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 6, 2012 Author Share Posted July 6, 2012 Interestingly, the 06z NAM has slowed the frontal progression enough that it want to make Sunday the hotter of the weekend days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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