NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I wouldnt be so quick to pull the plug on this pattern.. We cant get any sustained colder than weve been as far as departure from normal, even in the dead of winter. The NAO is forecast to stay negative right through the end of the month on the euro and GFS. Also as stated above the pacific looks to get lined up in our favor for a change the last week of December. We have been riding the gravy train all December and fortunately had some minor events and pretty significant ones in the mtns. Usually Jan and Feb are our months we score, not Dec. I'll take this pattern every December. The only thing thats lacking is moisture. It may not be any consollation at the moment, but the pattern is Ripe the last 7-10 days of the month. As of now I don't see any normal or above normal temps/ pattern change coming. I see Cold and below normal precip lasting most of the winter IMO. Typical la-Nina, with a constant Negative NAO that isn't and hasn't shown any signs of letting up the past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I wouldnt be so quick to pull the plug on this pattern.. We cant get any colder than weve been as far as departure from normal. The NAO stay negative right through the end of the month on the euro and GFS. Also as stated above the pacific looks to get lined up in our favor for a change the last week of December. We have been riding the gravy train all December and fortunately had some minor events and pretty significant ones in the mtns. Usually Jan and Feb are our months we score, not Dec. I'll take this pattern every December. The only thing thats lacking is moisture. It may not be any consollation at the moment, but the pattern is Ripe the last 7-10 days of the month. As of now I don't see any normal or above normal temps/ pattern change coming. I see Cold and below normal precip lasting most of the winter IMO. Typical la-Nina, with a constant Negative NAO that isn't and hasn't shown any signs of letting up the past year. I think it's time to move on to the 7-8 day snow threat the Euro showed. Want do you think, by saturday it will lose it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think it's time to move on to the 7-8 day snow threat the Euro showed. Want do you think, by saturday it will lose it? I dont even trust the euro past 2 consecutive runs inside 5 days. The euro and GFS both are forecasting the pna to go positive and NAO stay negative the last week of the month. I'd be hesitant to start any thread for any storm outside 5 days. I think New years eve alot of posters are gonna look back and see one of, most likely the coldest December ever recorded and the fact theyve reached 50%+ of their annual snowfall average in the month (DEC) it is most likely to least occur. As of late November, no one saw this unfolding. The only thing really concerning me about winter isn't that we want score a good one or 2, its that our water tables will be in a deficit starting out spring. I'm no LR guru, but this pattern where in, is locked for the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I dont even trust the euro past 2 consecutive runs inside 5 days. The euro and GFS both are forecasting the pna to go positive and NAO stay negative the last week of the month. I'd be hesitant to start any thread for any storm outside 5 days. I think New years eve alot of posters are gonna look back and see one of, most likely the coldest December ever recorded and the fact theyve reached 50%+ of their annual snowfall average in the month (DEC) it is most likely to least occur. As of late November, no one saw this unfolding. The only thing really concerning me about winter isn't that we want score a good one or 2, its that our water tables will be in a deficit starting out spring. I'm no LR guru, but this pattern where in, is locked for the forseeable future. very true...good post xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 this pattern isn't great moisture wise thats for sure. But as ncsnow said, it is a cold one. We may see more snow form clippers than anything else and if the block stays strong, the clippers may come more South like the last one that gave us snow. GFS is trying to bring that one next week South but it is a long ways off. I'm not completely given up yet on the weekends "storm" though. It could still come back if the trends start showing it doing so by the next 24 hours or so. If not, then I will let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 this pattern isn't great moisture wise thats for sure. But as ncsnow said, it is a cold one. We may see more snow form clippers than anything else and if the block stays strong, the clippers may come more South like the last one that gave us snow. GFS is trying to bring that one next week South but it is a long ways off. I'm not completely given up yet on the weekends "storm" though. It could still come back if the trends start showing it doing so by the next 24 hours or so. If not, then I will let it go. The northeast is high and dry .....at least we r getting minor or mod eventswith the pv so far south.......We may see a big storm go up the coast or a miller b once the pattern breaks down.......... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I hate to even say this but the s/w is looking a little stronger so far on the 0z euro. Not sure if it'll make a difference in the final result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 very true...good post xwx The northeast is high and dry .....at least we r getting minor or mod eventswith the pv so far south.......We may see a big storm go up the coast or a miller b once the pattern breaks down.......... xwx in case you missed it xwx, which one is right? Answer is your SN chances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yep, at hr 66 light qpf from Ala to NC...1012 mb going across the Fl. panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Our storm is back...At hr 78 we have a 1008 mb lp off the NC coast. Light precip out to Charlotte, heavier as you move towards RDU. Temps are close at RDU but I'm glad to see it back on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At hr 84 the lp at 1004mb off the Outer Banks...light precip, RDU east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Euro just gave us a resurrection. on a , about to go get the bacon wrapped 8oz fillet off the grill, no sh!t, stop beating a ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At 96 it climbs the coast but the MA is only in the light precip...A shift a little west and the MA would have a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NE does pretty well on the 0z euro....Now we need to see if the clipper next week is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 going to get my steak, be back in a minute to analyze the 0z EC outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 let the NW trend commence on all models now. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyredog28 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ok so "dumb" this down for me. It's looking for favorable for at least something decent this weekend for say the Triad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sorry I didn't mean to forget about the Ga./SC crew. From hr 66 to 72 there is some light qpf in Ga. and SC thru the NC...Temps are close for NE Ga and NW SC. If this s/w is a little stronger I could see there being more qpf on future runs for everybody. Right now I'm glad to have it back on ther euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 0z Euro is a win for NE NC and SE VA from what I am reading, maybe central NC too. 72 & 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 on a , about to go get the bacon wrapped 8oz fillet off the grill, no sh!t, stop beating a ECMWF Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ok so "dumb" this down for me. It's looking for favorable for at least something decent this weekend for say the Triad? ggem nogaps gfs say way east...fish storm..............ec has started a trend west or is it a hic-up.....................6z gfs will it trend nw??? xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 going to get my steak, be back in a minute to analyze the 0z EC outlier... [/quot Watch for the outlier in models! xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ggem nogaps gfs say way east...fish storm..............ec has started a trend west or is it a hic-up.....................6z gfs will it trend nw??? xwx i know we are in a totally different pattern and i sound like a fresh cooked but didnt the 12/17 12 euro start bringing the 12/19/09 back nw :gun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sorry I didn't mean to forget about the Ga./SC crew. From hr 66 to 72 there is some light qpf in Ga. and SC thru the NC...Temps are close for NE Ga and NW SC. If this s/w is a little stronger I could see there being more qpf on future runs for everybody. Right now I'm glad to have it back on ther euro. Exactly. It's just good to see any amplification after the other failed runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i know we are in a totally different pattern and i sound like a fresh cooked but didnt the 12/17 12 euro start bringing the 12/19/09 back nw :gun: sure did xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Latest run = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 RAH has a good discussion on this system. They are taking a 0Z NAM/EC blend for now...which fits well with their previous forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Although I know it want come back far enough to help me. Places from Raleigh east still have players on the field. And will probably end up getting atleast some light snow Saturday night. JB morning update !!! For those interested. The GFS is way out to sea with the weekend storm and I think out to lunch as it is now guilty of not phasing the streams correctly. While the threat for heaviest snows with this has always been on the coast, I still think the big cities get some snow with Boston getting belted the worst. Fact is I have not changed my ideas, and will remind the reader that it is rare when we dont see models correct northwest. But lets look at the big picture here. Suppose the GFS is right. It is weaker and further east with the weekend storm but then sees two more systems coming right after it, before Christmas. And its Christmas day snowcover remains at, or further south, than the map I had drawn back at the start of the month. In the end, its the pattern and detecting that pattern that lead to the forecast, not some magical mystery tour inspired idea. Maybe somehow we can still pull out a White Christmas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Gotta start wondering if it isn't time for us in the CLT region to give up on his storm. No model has had it even close to freezing for us at the sfc...could change but I have a hard time buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Gotta start wondering if it isn't time for us in the CLT region to give up on his storm. No model has had it even close to freezing for us at the sfc...could change but I have a hard time buying it. Yeah not happening, brah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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