WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Good points. This will be a huge kick in the balls if eastern NC cashes in yet again. again, but in all seriousness, wish we all could get into a widespread warning event, year in and year out... Still think this has the flavor of a NE NC SE VA special, central NC could do well, but without a fresh source of cold, going to be hard here in the Coastal Plain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Foothills, so it looks decent (as of now anyway) for the Triangle/RDU area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL.. Flurries? lolz...I'm sure it's over blown but I need something to be positive about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dry nose on the 18z NAM just above the surface (around 925mb) keeps the snow birds away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 SREF had accum type as snow for most of Western and Central NC at 87 hours EDIT- It even has it down to CAE and half of Ga. I saw that. Looked pretty good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I know this is small but here is what it looks like on the SREF for this weekend... Looks rather good, burger. My only complaint is it seems like a small precip shield. I guess beggars can't be choosey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 At least the game is still on..Again this is the 18NAM, but, the table needs to be set. Either way I hope some in the SE cashes in on this. Model battle is full force now!! for highway 74 region of southern NC, the NAM probably is slightly too warm. The 925 and boundary layer is just above freezing, but our 850 is below, however we're well west of the good lift, so precip rates verbatim would leave us at 35 and light rain. Futher east at 84 hours is when it develops the 850 low, so by then points east of CLT are probably in good snow in a developing deformation band. If you extrapolated that would eventually get eastern NC very good with 6" probably. Lose-Lose for my area. Plus time of day with marginal boundary layer, I don't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Just getting back in the seat after some days off, but I'm thinking along the same lines here. The stale cold...with much less room for evaporative cooling from the preceeding events could be an issue. Thinking a northern trend in the models gets underway later tomorrow, but only by so much. again, but in all seriousness, wish we all could get into a widespread warning event, year in and year out... Still think this has the flavor of a NE NC SE VA special, central NC could do well, but without a fresh source of cold, going to be hard here in the Coastal Plain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z GFS about to initialize. Let's see what we can get out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Anyone wondering what the 18z NAM would look like after 84hrs, well you can, kinda, it's called the 18z DGEX and it puts down 5-7" for NE NC and SE VA between 84 and 108 hrs. A less than stellar, in terms of verification, DGEX SN map coming once it is available on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Anyone wondering what the 18z NAM would look like after 84hrs, well you can, kinda, it's called the 18z DGEX and it puts down 5-7" for NE NC and SE VA between 84 and 108 hrs. A less than stellar, in terms of verification, DGEX SN map coming once it is available on NCEP. lol DGEX will have 2 ft of snow for all of NC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 lol DGEX will have 2 ft of snow for all of NC!! I would seriously lmao if it shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This may not be good ? system looks weaker @ 48 than it does @ 42 in texas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah at 500 its very euro like the shortwave is flat. thats not a good sign but at least its the 18z run. but i think its looking less likely we see anything major this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 System is squashed and OTS by 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 System is squashed and OTS by 72. Yep, looks like the euro now. Where have I seen this before? Oh yea, every winter storm I track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ILM might get a little snow on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't care what the track record is as of late, You just can't bet against the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM 18Z 84 GFS 18Z 72 RUMBLE!!!!!! Put in the other models and throw a freaking dart. Glad I just crack a Sweet Water Festive Ale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dead and buried on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dead and buried on the GFS It is still just one one. That is a VERY SIGNIFICANT change from the other runs. I personally am interested in the 00Z to see if this is a trend. Interesting days ahead-for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Doesn't the 18z GFS have a tendency to be a little nutty sometimes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the only problem with dismissing this run is that the ecmwf has shown something similiar with the s/w coming into california it gets shredded to bits right as it gets to texas. if by 12z tomorrow its still doing this, this threat is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Doesn't the 18z GFS have a tendency to be a little nutty sometimes? Yep, but it's not that nutty when it's trending towards what the Euro is showing us, but good thing is we still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 4:3 odds the 12z EC ens mean is more amplified than the op, book it! 12z ECMWF op at 96hrs vs the ens mean at 120hrs play the video for full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Watch the west trend start tomorrow! Until then I'll just enjoy the winter weather on the way , after all it might be the only winter weather I get this week or the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I like the way you think! Watch the west trend start tomorrow! Until then I'll just enjoy the winter weather on the way , after all it might be the only winter weather I get this week or the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hmm...What could HPC be thinking? Thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It looks like I might want to chase tomorrow's event because it looks like crap thereafter. Basically a CYA chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe now I wont have to cut firewood in a cold rain this Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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